MWC Review

Before signing day arrives, and the inevitable collective dive into the measurements, SAT scores, and possible position switches for thousands of yet-untested true freshmen, let's peruse the 2009 season with a wide lense. It was a pretty good year for the Mountain West-- although less successful than the blockbusting '08 season. The last three seasons the conference has gone .947 (18-1) against 2A foes; .629 (34-20) against non-cartel 1A teams; and .520 (26-24) against the cartel. In '09 the MWC fared slightly better than average against 2A and non-cartel 1A teams, (6-0 for 1.000, 12-7 for .632) and slightly worse against the cartel (7-9 for .435). The Mountain West had at least two teams in every poll this season (a first), and three teams ranked in all but four of the season's 16 poll weeks (previous record in '08: only five weeks without three ranked teams). And until TCU's lain egg at the Fiesta Bowl, it appeared the conference would sweep its five bowl games.

Coaching continuity had a lot to do with the conference's sustained success. For the second year running, the MWC had a BCS team without losing its BCS coach. Despite overtures from Tennessee, Notre Dame, USC, Kansas, and Cincinnati, the Mountain West keeps Gary Patterson and Kyle Whittingham (and Troy Calhoun) for another year. The situation is nearly the same with coordinators-- only Air Force lost a coordinator to poaching. (UNLV's turnover not included, obviously.) CSU fired its OC, and UNLV has an entirely new crew, but otherwise the staffs are unchanged at the tops in the conference.

The only new kid on the block is UNLV's Bobby Hauck, and his team of coordinators, most of whom followed Hauck from Montana State. Hauck poached JD Williams from Utah (cornerbacks) to be his assistant head coach, pass defense, and secondary coach; Brent Myers from Louisville will coach tight ends-- an emphasis in Hauck's run-heavy offenses. The rest of his staff followed Hauck from Montana State: Rob Phenicie (OC); Kraig Paulson (DC); Ty Gregorak (LB, recruiting coordinator) Chad Germer (o-line); Dominic Daste (RB); Michael Gray (DT); Mike Gerber (strength and conditioning).

How about the rookies? Dave Christensen leads these coaches going away, having led his Wyoming Cowboys not just out of a projected last-place finish, but to their first bowl (and bowl win) since '04. The first-year head coach had the sagacity to deemphasize the pass (his forte) and rely on the Cowboys less-dead running game, with true freshmen playmakers to boot. Christensen's returning crew is large, young, and optimistic. Brady Hoke appears to have his San Diego State Aztecs turned around, although his team lost a couple it shouldn't have. Whether Hoke can generate a running game in San Diego remains his biggest worry-- and the lack of one his team's Achilles heel.

Which leaves New Mexico's Mike Locksley, who probably has about half a season to show some wins, or else. The wheels came off in Albuquerque this season, and unless the Lobos show drastic improvement right off the bat in 2010, they'll be begging Rocky Long to come back by Columbus Day.

The shape of the league-- the Big Three atop, AFA leading the rest of the pack-- remained unchanged in 2009. Oddly, the league standings were perfectly transitive. TCU beat everybody; BYU lost only to TCU; Utah lost only to TCU and BYU; AFA lost only to the Big Three; Wyoming lost only to the Big Three and AFA; etc. Maybe AFA narrowed the distance between it and the Big Three (losing to TCU and Utah by a combined six points), but the better analysis that AFA neither gained nor lost ground. In '07, remember, the Academy took second place in the league.

The MWC's surprises, in rough order of magnitude, were these:
(1) Colorado State cratered, finishing 0-9 in conference after starting 3-0, including its first win in Boulder in over a decade.
(2) Wyoming wins bowl eligibility in its Year One of the spread-- albeit a run-heavy adaptation of Dave Christensen's attack.
(3) New Mexico's Year One of the spread features no wins and less offense until its eleventh game, against wheels-off CSU. The punch (alleged)? Later reports indicate it may not be as surprising as Lobo fans wish.
(4) BYU, with a 80% retooled offensive line, out-slugged Oklahoma in a defensive battle only a couple hours' drive from Norman.
(5) BYU gets out-slugged in a offensive embarrassment by Florida State, in Provo.
(6) ESPN Gameday comes to two Mountain West conference games, as well as the AFA-Army game.
(7) TCU loses its bowl, but remains ranked in the top 10.
(8) BYU's defense was faster than Oregon State in the Las Vegas Bowl.
(9) TCU likely will start 2010 ranked in the top ten, and below another non-cartel team.

The Mountain West's best 2009 moments:
(1) BYU topping OU;
(2) Colorado State beating Colorado;
(2) Wyoming beating Fresno State in double overtime in the New Mexico Bowl;
(3) ESPN Gameday at TCU;
(4) ESPN Gameday at BYU;
(5) Troy Calhoun turning down the top job at Tennessee

The MWC's reasons for optimism about 2010:
(1) TCU's returning seniors;
(2) the impossibility that AFA could have worse injury luck than last year;
(3) Jordan Wynn and Austyn Carta-Samuels were only freshmen;
(4) the bullseye for media attention is on Boise State's back
(5) Whittingham, Patterson, and Calhoun all return, with nearly idental staffs
(6) Pete Thomas (CSU QB) early enrolled;
(7) Harvey Unga, Jeremy Kerley, Vincent Brown returned for their senior years, and Matt Asiata and DeMarco Sampson won medical redshirts and sixth years of eligibility;
(8) New Mexico is .500 (in its last two games).

More seats at the polls in 2009

In the run-up to this season, the Wimple noted that the non-cartel teams were, on average, appearing in the polls more often than they had in the past. That trend continued in 2009. Using only the AP poll for the data set, an average week of the 2009 season had 20.5 ranked cartel teams, and 4.5 ranked non-cartel teams- a slight increase over the then-record breaking '08 season.

2009-- 72, 4.500
2008-- 73, 4.294
2007-- 30, 1.875
2006-- 28, 1.750
2005-- 37 (23 without Louisville, a tweeny in '05), 2.313 (1.438)
2004-- 57, 3.563
2003-- 48, 2.824
2002-- 33, 1.833
2001-- 44, 2.588
2000-- 37, 2.176
1999-- 47, 2.765
1998-- 22, 1.375
1997-- 29, 1.611
1996-- 41, 2.278
1995-- 5, 0.294
1994-- 33, 1.941
1993-- 21, 1.235
1992-- 10, 0.588

2009 Wimple Awards

The third annual Wimple Awards:

The 2009 Purple Wimple Players of the Year: Daryl Washington, Jerry Hughes
On a team full of playmakers, Daryl Washington and Jerry Hughes proved the most consistent big-play threats in purple. Washington stepped into the daunting shoes of Robert Henson, filled them, and then some. Washington was one of the emotional leaders of the team, as well as one of the defense's best performers. In 2009 the senior averaged over eight tackles per game, and never tallied less than five-- and in those three in which he only got five, at least one was for a loss. Washington played big in big games: his career best game was at Clemson, where he not only tallied 13 stops, but chased down C. J. Spiller in a footrace, bringing down the ACC Player of the Year and turning what would have been a touchdown into a field goal. Washington made ten and nine tackles at BYU and at Air Force, respectively, making him the Frogs' most valuable performer away from Amon Carter Stadium, as well as in it. Jerry Hughes's numbers themselves say much of the story: 58 tackles (21 of them for a loss); 13 sacks; seven (officially) QB hurries; two forced fumbles. Elite defenders rack up totals like that, and of those, only the best do it more than once. Hughes did it twice, despite being the number one threat on opposing offensive-coordinators' minds all off-season. For his effort he brought home the hardware in 2009, winning the Ted Henricks award, as well as his second consecutive spot as as first-team consensus All-American. (This year he was a the unanimous pick.) Hughes and Washington have played every year on special teams. Few Frogs have as obvious and as bright a future in the NFL as these two have; their years at TCU-- even when not starting-- were brilliant. Like Jason Phillips last year, and Chase Ortiz the year before, it will be hard to imagine the TCU team-- especially the defense-- without these defenders prowling in the middle of it and camping out in the opponents' backfields, making them look slow and stupid.




Offensive Player of the Year: Andy Dalton
The Wimple made the point last year, when awarding the quarterback with this same award, that no single player accounted for the Frogs' increase in productivity between '07 and '08 than Dalton. It is a singular delight, then, to note that this continues to be true. No single Frog accounts for more of the difference between the offense's record-setting '08 season, and its substantially more impressive (and record-setting) '09 output than Andy Dalton. With over 500 more yards, and 12 more touchdowns than last season, the junior had the best single season any TCU quarterback has had since at least the leather helmet era, if not ever. Dalton threw more touchdowns in 2009 (23) than he threw the previous two years combined, and threw only eight interceptions. Raw production aside, Dalton proved more durable than in the past, quicker and more dangerous as a running threat, and smarter than the defenses he faced. Against Clemson, he executed the Slice relentlessly, running for almost 70 yards in the second half, keeping TCU's scoring drives alive. Against Utah, Dalton completely negated the Utes' exotic blitzes, reading and passing over them repeatedly, and quickly! Dalton's increased production and smart performance was the most valuable component in TCU's best ever offensive year. His return in 2010 makes TCU a viable contender for the crystal trophy.

Defensive Player of the Year: Raphael Priest
The senior cornerback was one of the steadiest performers on the team, let alone in the secondary, which was marked by unexpected turmoil all season. How often did this fleet athlete lock down receivers sent to steal a deep pass? Priest's fourth starting campaign was perhaps his best. Priest started all but one game in the regular season--the only missed start of his career--and likely will continue football professionally this fall.

















Special Teams Player of the Year: Jeremy Kerley
Few players can take not receiving the ball as a compliment, but Jeremy Kerley is not like most players. Opposing teams kicked away from him all year, and when forced to punt his way, tried to punt out of bounds. It's hard to blame them: when Kerley fielded a punt or kickoff, he was electric. Twice Kerley returned kicks for touchdowns, both times igniting the Frogs' then-sluggish teammates. Kerley's touchdown return against Colorado State (watch it here and weep for other teams' special teams) is a lesson in agility, vision, and speed. It won ESPN's best play of the year, and should have.








Senior of the Year: Marshall Newhouse
Like Herbert Taylor before him, Marshall Newhouse began playing as a true freshman at TCU, at right tackle, and migrated to left tackle to replace a graduating senior. Chase Ortiz called Newhouse the most talented o-lineman at TCU, and after four years, the Wimple will brook no dissent on the issue. Newhouse has proven Taylor's equal in talent and, just as importantly, durability. The senior started or played in every TCU game since 2006. Last year, Marshall Newhouse anchored (with then-senior Blake Shlueter) an o-line that topped its best year in almost a decade, registering over 220 ground yards per game and over 33 points per game. Newhouse, the only starting senior on the line in 2009, led the group that bested both of those marks. The line allowed the fewest sacks (12) since joining the MWC, at least.











Freshman of the Year: Ed Wesley, Matthew Tucker
Behind the best o-line in at least a decade, these two runningbacks burst on the scene and have left Frog watchers wondering how the three incoming bluechip runningbacks will fit into the backfield. Ed Wesley was not only unheralded as a recruit, but was considered a poor choice by the few commentators who took any notice of him at all coming out of high school. Word filtered out during his redshirt year, however, that he was elusive and difficult for the Frogs' tremendous defense to stop. Thankfully he ran into the face of other teams' defenses in 2009, and relentlessly. Wesley averaged over six yards per carry, splitting snaps with Turner and Tucker. He also racked up 170 aerial yards, making Wesley one of the Frogs most versatile and dangerous weapons.
True freshman Matt Tucker had considerably more hype to live up to as a recruit to TCU, and did so in spades. Too talented for the coaches to redshirt him, Tucker made waves from his first practice in August. By season's open, the freshman had worked his way to second in the Frogs' three-back ground attack. By the postseason, Tucker had amassed 6.4 ypc, with slightly more touches than Wesley, and twice as many touchdowns (8).







Can't Wait to See Next Year: Dwight Smith, Casey Pachall, Stansley Maponga, David Johnson, James Dunbar.

TCU wraps up, upset, but set up.

So the Frogs didn't turn into princes upon invitation to a BCS bowl, and indeed the Wimple's forecast that any one loss in 2010 would feel like a letdown proved true. But good news accompanies even the truth of this prediction. How far fell the Frogs after that loss? TCU went to Glendale ranked #3 by the press, and #4 by the BCS. AP and the coaches put TCU in their final ballots at #6 (there is no final BCS poll).

How did the Frogs get to so high a ranking? By spreading the ball around. It began in Virginia, where TCU's three-headed backfield and utterly dominant o-line tallied 154 yards, keeping TCU in possession of the ball almost 35 minutes. They tallied 212 a week later against Texas State, and Dalton joined the fun against Clemson a week later. When the trio only managed 128 yards in the face of Clemson's impressive d-line, the junior signal-caller galloped for 100 himself, 68 of those in the second half. Still working with a partially concealed playbook against SMU, Dalton rode the SMU pony to a conference-high 160 efficiency rating. Turner, Wesley, and Tucker tallied 196 yards. Following a bitter-cold close call at Air Force, TCU upped the intensity of its ground game against Colorado State. Against the Rams, 14 Frogs toted the rock, for 278 yards and three touchdowns.

Those six games clearly were tune-ups for TCU, which blew the dust off of long-unused pages of its playbook for the tilt in Provo, where the Frogs dominated BYU in all three phases, for all sixty minutes. The steam-roll had only begun: Colorado State was the first of six conference opponents to give up more than 40 points to TCU; the other five came in a row: UNLV, San Diego State, Utah, Wyoming, and New Mexico. Of those five, only Utah scored more than 12, and only New Mexico held the Frogs to less than 326 rushing yards. TCU sold out its first conference game since its Southwest Conference days, (breaking its home record) when Utah and ESPN Gameday came to town. The Frogs rode the Mountain West all the way to 3rd in both human polls, and 4th in the BCS, and a record-setting bowl bid. Never before had a BCS bowl chosen a non-cartel team over a cartel-team; Boise State matched that record with a remarkable one of its own: never before had a second non-cartel team secured a BCS berth in one season. Their excitement about that unprecedented chance to bowl for big money carried into their outstanding Fiesta Bowl win over the Frogs.

TCU's 2009 senior class is small, but talented. Four of them (Washington, Hughes, Newhouse, and Gresham) are invited to the NFL Combine, and three will play in senior all-star games. Probably six or seven will be on NFL rosters next season (Washinigton and Hughes will be TCU's highest-picked draftees in years). It was the Frogs' juniors that carried the greatest load this year. Dalton, Cannon, Kirkpatrick, Vernon, Kerley, Young, Clay, Johnson on offense; Griffin, Grant, Daniels, Luttrell, Johnson, Ibiloye, Teague, and Jones on defense. Next season these juniors (then seniors) will cap the most talented team to wear purple in decades, perhaps ever.

TCU has finished seven of the last ten seasons ranked, but never maintained anything close to that strength in the polls across an offseason. After finishing 21/18th in 2000, TCU debuted 2001 unranked. After finished 23/22nd in 2002, TCU began the next year at 25th. After a 25/23rd finish in '03, TCU began 2004 unranked. After finished 2005 ranked 11/9th, TCU began the next season ranked 22nd. The exception is that TCU took a 22/21st finish in 2006 to a 22nd ranked beginning to 2007. The Frogs began 2008 --/44th, and finished 7/7th, only to debut 2009 ten spots lower at 17/17th. 2009 concluded with TCU 6/6th.

Incredibly, early-preseason polls rank TCU the same: sixth. A similar ranking in August would herald a new paradigm in college football. Boise and TCU likely will begin the 2010 season ranked in the top ten-- the first two non-cartel teams to achieve that kind of confidence and recognition among voters. While several non-cartel teams have clawed their way into the national title discussion by year-end, none have ever begun the year in that conversation. Boise certainly will do so in 2010, and TCU might.

The 2010 seniors clearly will be the most talented class to graduate from TCU since the 1950s, if not longer. They will be just the first such class, however. In a few weeks Gary Patterson's crew will close the second jaw-dropping class of recruits in as many years. The remarkable truth is that Patterson has created much more than a flash in the pan success in Fort Worth. He has set up the Frogs to succeed repeatedly on a once-unthinkably-high level. That players like Tanner Brock, Jason Teague, Greg McCoy, Blaize Foltz, Matt Tucker, Curtis Clay, Zach Roth, D.J. Yendry, Braylon Broughton, Andre Dean, Waymon James, and Casey Pachall didn't start this season is a revealing tribute to the quality of TCU's upperclassmen.

In sum, with the talent returning and enrolling (including early-enrolled Dwight Smith, called the best runningback to come from east Texas in a generation), a top-ten pre-season rank, and continuity on the staff, TCU is set up perfectly for a run at the sport's holy grail. It'll be decided in Glendale in 2010, and for the first time since our grandparents were young, it is not unreasonable to consider the Frogs in the running for it. It's crystal, football-shaped, and until 2010, had been reserved only for the privileged few. Next year, that club may have to expand like nobody could have imagined just a year or two ago.

Boise State 17, TCU 10

Outcoached.

TCU hasn't had to swallow that pill in a long time. But Boise State administered a terrific dose of the medicine in the Fiesta Bowl, first in defending TCU's rush attack quirkily enough to scare the Frogs' young OCs away from the run, and second in faking a punt (pictured) to keep the Bronco's only touchdown drive alive. Those changes, with terrific play by Boise's secondary (snagging three Dalton passes) made just enough difference to give Boise State the win.

While Boise sustained drives better than TCU (converting 40% of its third- and fourth-downs, compared to TCU's dismal eight percent), both teams punted eight times. Boise held the ball a full ten minutes longer than TCU, and ran eight more plays, but engineered exactly no more points from them than TCU did. TCU passed for 30 yards more than BSU, and scored on a pass play. Boise ran for 40 yards more than TCU, and scored on a run play. Both teams had 12 passing first downs, 3 or 4 rushing first downs, and one penalty first down. Neither quarterback had a typical day; Moore was pressured most of the night, and Dalton threw three interceptions, one of which was returned (accounting for all of the difference in the score), and the last killed TCU's attempt to tie the game in the final two minutes.

In the end, Boise's defense was the x-factor. They outplayed TCU's offense so effectively the Frogs could not win, despite their own defense's very good showing. Hughes, Washington, Carder-- all the usual suspects-- were typically terrific.

Much has been-- and should be-- said about TCU's abandoning the run. Matthew Tucker was given just one carry; Ed Wesley only two. Credit Boise's surprise use of a 3-3 and 3-2 front: it scared TCU's young offensive coordinators away from the Frogs' bread and butter, keeping potent purple playmakers off the field. In 2010, the Frogs' stable of runningbacks will be even more audacious than this season: Waymon James, Andre Dean, and Dwight Smith join Tucker and Wesley. Perhaps TCU will be more faithful to its roots, and roster, next season.

AIR FORCE wraps up, topped out?

What does an all-senior offensive line, a returning QB, two tailbacks, and a smash-mouth defense get these days for a service academy? Air Force took these assets into 2009, and emerged with its third straight bowl bid, and only bowl win of the decade, topping Houston (convincingly) in a chilly Armed Forces Bowl, and tallying its third eight-or-better win season in a row. QB Tim Jefferson completed long passes to returning WRs Kevin Fogler (pictured) and Jonathan Warzeka, adding hope to Falcon fans' expectations of a fourth bowl and second post-season win in 2010. More importantly, Jefferson's aerial prowess (10-14 for 161 yards) forced Houston to give the servicemen room on the ground to do what they do best: run. Jared Tew and Asher Clark ('10 sr. and jr., respectively) took 60% of AFA's ground snaps in the game, for 75% of its ground yards, and 80% of its touchdowns.

This summary was about what AFA watchers expected to see all year from the Falcons, but injuries hobbled Jefferson and Clark for much of the season. Sophomore Connor Dietz and junior Jared Tew stepped into the QB and RB slots effectively enough to keep the Academy's post-season run going, but the team standouts came from the defense. DBs Reggie Rembert, Anthony Wright, and Chris Thomas plagued offenses all season, in front of another great defensive front for the Academy.

Glass-half-empty people may focus on AFA's inability in '09 to cover any of the distance between it and the MWC's big three, but the Wimple is the half-glass-full type, and prefers to note how the Academy hasn't lost any distance to those three, either. And that's saying something, considering how steadily AFA battled injuries this season, and how much the MWC's top teams have improved in the last few years. AFA took Navy and Utah to overtime (losing both tilts) and played TCU to the wire in a blizzard-like game in Colorado Springs, perhaps covering the memory of its lopsided defeat in '08 with its manly showing in '09. For a second year, AFA finished fourth in the conference, beating all of its teams except Utah, TCU, and BYU.

Does the outlook brighten for 2010, or have the Falcons reached the highest altitude? There seems ready room for improvement in the Falcons' OOC performance, perhaps generating a top-25 ranking. AFA played Minnesota close, and missed its first victory over Navy in years by a missed field goal; they almost got a second victory over Utah and TCU in three years, as well. Jefferson, Clark, Dietz, Tew, Fogler, Warzeka, Rembert, and Wright all return; the Academy's skill and speed positions are well-stocked. Jefferson's connections with his wideouts in the bowl fund optimism that the Academy can manage a more balanced attack in 2010-- and a balanced pass-run option attack would be frightening to opposing defenses indeed. But... (how rarely to college teams avoid that rejoinder!)

But both lines lose seniors in droves. Four o-linemen graduate, including all-MWC Nick Charles and Peter Lusk; two of the three d-linemen played their last this week, including all-MWC noseguard Ben Garland. Both AFA inside LBs graduate as well. Replacing these interior starters will be coach Calhoun's biggest worry this offseason, and any dropoff in production from the new personel up front will make merely maintaining course in 2010 a program success. That no freshmen appeared on the late-season two-deep on either line may indicate the Falcons have depth enough to make this transition less painfully than in the past-- but that will remain a hopeful guess until the first whistle in September.