MWC unit previews: SECONDARIES

The Wimple's ranking of the MWC's secondaries, best to worst:

Air Force's corners are the conference's best returning tandem: Anthony Wright and Reggie Rembert were 1st- and 2nd-team all-MWC. Jon Davis joins returns as safety with them, and the only newcomer is Phil Ohili, who has two years' experience as a backup. Air Force and TCU had the best pass defenses in the MWC last season, holding opposing squads to 154 and 157 ypg, and 57.6% and 47.4% completions. AFA returns 75% of its starters secondary; TCU only 40%-- although new starting cornerback Jason Teague played lots and often in '09. AFA's and TCU's secondaries are the class of the conference in 2010.

See TCU's and the rest of the MWC's secondary ranking after the jump.

MWC unit previews: Special Teams

Preseason practices are just weeks away.  To get you there, the Wimple begins the MWC unit rankings, starting with special teams. 

Trading Utah for Boise State

If pictures really are worth 1,000 words, I need write little more about Boise State than that my impression of them is incurably colored by the mere existence of this fan.

Rumor mill spits out the best possible scenario for MWC

Here it is, folks, supposedly from the BYU AD's mouth: the best possible outcome for TCU and the MWC, after the expansion dust settles:

Kansas is in talks with the Mtn West as we speak and has been for a few days now... Kansas State [also]. ... Mizzou also contacted the Mtn West and is gathering information just in case. ...The Mtn West is scheduled to get BCS status (according to the BCS Commissioner) in 2011. The BCS has also informed the Mtn West that if they do get BCS status in 2011 and the Big12 collapses, the Mtn West is "very likely" to take over the BCS Fiesta Bowl auto-bid hosting slot. ...
The Mtn West will be taking 3 teams and only 3 teams [Boise, Kansas, K-State or Missouri]. They currently have 9 teams and the Mtn West Commish says they will halt expansion at 12 because the Mtn West does not have a big TV deal like the PAC10 will have. In 2015-2016 the Mwc Commish said the league would consider adding 2-4 more teams if the TV deal is increased dramatically at that time.

If this is true, and it happens, the MWC would be a better spot than anybody could have imagined even just a week ago. This would make the Mountain West a first-class basketball conference, a BCS autobid football conference, with better than just an at-large affiliation with the big bowls. And a conference poised to garner a vastly superior TV deal than its current one.

Kansas schools in the MWC? Market numbers.

Now that we all can agree that eyeballs on TV commercials is one of only two relevant matters driving expansion (the other being the yet-unwritten rules regarding double autobids to the BCS), let's examine the numbers of a hypothetical move of Boise and the Big12 leftovers to the Mountain West.

So, what would happen if an expanded MWC included those schools, and this expansion triggered a media deal that included TV coverage in the basic cable in the Dallas/Fort Worth, Waco, St. Louis, San Diego, Las Vegas, and then every other cable market in Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Utah, New Mexico, Colorado, Wyoming, and those markets close to Kansas City in Missouri? (This list of markets is in the first comment below this post.)

The MWC, from the outside looking in:

Few glimpses into the psyche of the cartel could have been more revealing than the ESPN news story posted today on the (self-proclaimed) World Leader’s website. The story examined Kansas’s predicament, facing all of the expansion talk as a spectator, with the possible outcome being a retreat to the Mountain West. (The story didn’t name that conference specifically as a destination, but it made clear that this was the species of hell that the school was contemplating, with increasing sweat and seriousness.) “Kansas' status as a major player in college athletics has been placed in [jeopardy]. … strip Kansas, Kansas State and Iowa State of the safety and privileges of membership in a Bowl Championship Series conference.” You know: one of those outsider conferences.

What would joining the Mountain West be like?

Why Boise and the MWC are better apart

The Wimple has advocated a ten-team MWC (Boise being the 10th) for years– but today admits the fault of that advocacy. Boise being in the WAC for as long as possible before joining the MWC is a brilliant move, even if the brilliance results from an unintended result. While Boise and the MWC champ are in different conferences, both can (and frequently do) go undefeated, and in years like 2009, both can land a BCS berth. This is an unqualified good, for both teams, conferences, and indeed, for all of college football.

However, when Boise is a MWC-member, the chances of a MWC team going undefeated shrink substantially. From TCU’s perspective, running the Utah-BYU-AFA guantlet every year is hard enough. So hard, in fact, that only twice have the Horned Frogs done it unscathed. TCU has run the Utah-BYU-AFA-Boise gauntlet each of the last two seasons, and emerged 3-1 from it both times.

The Wimple thinks that the addition of Boise State to the MWC is a good idea only if a one-loss MWC champion is guaranteed a BCS berth.

BYU spring report

The Cougars faced a progression of spring questions in the last month.
Will Max Hall's backup, Riley Nelson, or returned missionary James Lark, or early-enrolled super-recruit Jake Heaps seize the starting role at QB? There is not a clear answer to that question, except that Nelson and Heaps do appear to have edged past Lark in the competition. By all accounts Nelson (spring 11 on 11 stats: 29-of-51 for 389 yards and 5 TDs) and Heaps (spring 11 on 11 stats: 62-of-105 for 774 yards and 7 TDs) are contending to start, while Lark (spring 11 on 11 stats: James Lark 27-of-46 for 253 yards and no TDs) is contending for the backup role. All three were given the same number of snaps with the first team; apparently Heaps is the least inclined to run with the ball-- making him the philosophical heir to Hall and Beck before him. This battle continues into fall drills.

Who will snap the QB the ball? 2009 starting center R. J. Willig graduated, and the spring competition to replace him was less successful than Cougar fans hoped. Terence Brown leads for the starting role, but he was sloppy with snaps often enough to unsettle the BYU faithful.

Will new TEs figure prominently in 2010? All-star TEs Dennis Pitta and Andrew George graduated, taking with them fully one third of BYU's 2009 receptions and receiving yards. BYU watchers expect WRs O'Neill Chambers, McKay Jacobsen (pictured), Luke Ashworth, and Ross Apo to pick up most of that slack, while new TEs work their way into the gameplan.

The defensive questions cover most of the field-- six of the front seven 2009 starters graduated.
Will the D-line backups morph into solid starters? For the second year running, BYU must replace all (or most of) one of its lines. It was offense in 2009, and that project went better than expected. 2010 will feature a new starting d-line. Backups Matt Putnam ('10 junior), Romney Fuga ('10 junior) and Vic S'oto ('10 senior) showed well in the spring, and will be joined in the fall by returned missionary Eathyn Manumaleuna, and a quartet of freshmen.

Who'll man the open linebacker spots? There're three of them open for 2010, in the fruit-basket turnover on defense that has upended the Cougar two-deep. Hotshot early-enrolled prospect Kyle Van Noy showed well, once he showed up. His absence, punishment for the ever-vague "violation of team rules" raised eyebrows early in the spring. Aveni Leung-Wai has the edge for a starting spot by smart play in the spring; as does Brandon Ogletree. Recruits Austen Jorgensen and Zac Stout will be in the mix in the fall, as will zenior Shane Hunter.

Who replaces safety Scott Johnson? Johnson was the brain of the Cougar defense, and his replacement has yet to come to the fore. Andrew Rich practiced little this spring; top prospect Shiloah Te'o was dismissed from the team. Junior Steven Thomas and redshirt freshmen Jray Galeai and Travis Uale will press Rich for the starting spot this fall.

MWC Review

Before signing day arrives, and the inevitable collective dive into the measurements, SAT scores, and possible position switches for thousands of yet-untested true freshmen, let's peruse the 2009 season with a wide lense. It was a pretty good year for the Mountain West-- although less successful than the blockbusting '08 season. The last three seasons the conference has gone .947 (18-1) against 2A foes; .629 (34-20) against non-cartel 1A teams; and .520 (26-24) against the cartel. In '09 the MWC fared slightly better than average against 2A and non-cartel 1A teams, (6-0 for 1.000, 12-7 for .632) and slightly worse against the cartel (7-9 for .435). The Mountain West had at least two teams in every poll this season (a first), and three teams ranked in all but four of the season's 16 poll weeks (previous record in '08: only five weeks without three ranked teams). And until TCU's lain egg at the Fiesta Bowl, it appeared the conference would sweep its five bowl games.

Coaching continuity had a lot to do with the conference's sustained success. For the second year running, the MWC had a BCS team without losing its BCS coach. Despite overtures from Tennessee, Notre Dame, USC, Kansas, and Cincinnati, the Mountain West keeps Gary Patterson and Kyle Whittingham (and Troy Calhoun) for another year. The situation is nearly the same with coordinators-- only Air Force lost a coordinator to poaching. (UNLV's turnover not included, obviously.) CSU fired its OC, and UNLV has an entirely new crew, but otherwise the staffs are unchanged at the tops in the conference.

The only new kid on the block is UNLV's Bobby Hauck, and his team of coordinators, most of whom followed Hauck from Montana State. Hauck poached JD Williams from Utah (cornerbacks) to be his assistant head coach, pass defense, and secondary coach; Brent Myers from Louisville will coach tight ends-- an emphasis in Hauck's run-heavy offenses. The rest of his staff followed Hauck from Montana State: Rob Phenicie (OC); Kraig Paulson (DC); Ty Gregorak (LB, recruiting coordinator) Chad Germer (o-line); Dominic Daste (RB); Michael Gray (DT); Mike Gerber (strength and conditioning).

How about the rookies? Dave Christensen leads these coaches going away, having led his Wyoming Cowboys not just out of a projected last-place finish, but to their first bowl (and bowl win) since '04. The first-year head coach had the sagacity to deemphasize the pass (his forte) and rely on the Cowboys less-dead running game, with true freshmen playmakers to boot. Christensen's returning crew is large, young, and optimistic. Brady Hoke appears to have his San Diego State Aztecs turned around, although his team lost a couple it shouldn't have. Whether Hoke can generate a running game in San Diego remains his biggest worry-- and the lack of one his team's Achilles heel.

Which leaves New Mexico's Mike Locksley, who probably has about half a season to show some wins, or else. The wheels came off in Albuquerque this season, and unless the Lobos show drastic improvement right off the bat in 2010, they'll be begging Rocky Long to come back by Columbus Day.

The shape of the league-- the Big Three atop, AFA leading the rest of the pack-- remained unchanged in 2009. Oddly, the league standings were perfectly transitive. TCU beat everybody; BYU lost only to TCU; Utah lost only to TCU and BYU; AFA lost only to the Big Three; Wyoming lost only to the Big Three and AFA; etc. Maybe AFA narrowed the distance between it and the Big Three (losing to TCU and Utah by a combined six points), but the better analysis that AFA neither gained nor lost ground. In '07, remember, the Academy took second place in the league.

The MWC's surprises, in rough order of magnitude, were these:
(1) Colorado State cratered, finishing 0-9 in conference after starting 3-0, including its first win in Boulder in over a decade.
(2) Wyoming wins bowl eligibility in its Year One of the spread-- albeit a run-heavy adaptation of Dave Christensen's attack.
(3) New Mexico's Year One of the spread features no wins and less offense until its eleventh game, against wheels-off CSU. The punch (alleged)? Later reports indicate it may not be as surprising as Lobo fans wish.
(4) BYU, with a 80% retooled offensive line, out-slugged Oklahoma in a defensive battle only a couple hours' drive from Norman.
(5) BYU gets out-slugged in a offensive embarrassment by Florida State, in Provo.
(6) ESPN Gameday comes to two Mountain West conference games, as well as the AFA-Army game.
(7) TCU loses its bowl, but remains ranked in the top 10.
(8) BYU's defense was faster than Oregon State in the Las Vegas Bowl.
(9) TCU likely will start 2010 ranked in the top ten, and below another non-cartel team.

The Mountain West's best 2009 moments:
(1) BYU topping OU;
(2) Colorado State beating Colorado;
(2) Wyoming beating Fresno State in double overtime in the New Mexico Bowl;
(3) ESPN Gameday at TCU;
(4) ESPN Gameday at BYU;
(5) Troy Calhoun turning down the top job at Tennessee

The MWC's reasons for optimism about 2010:
(1) TCU's returning seniors;
(2) the impossibility that AFA could have worse injury luck than last year;
(3) Jordan Wynn and Austyn Carta-Samuels were only freshmen;
(4) the bullseye for media attention is on Boise State's back
(5) Whittingham, Patterson, and Calhoun all return, with nearly idental staffs
(6) Pete Thomas (CSU QB) early enrolled;
(7) Harvey Unga, Jeremy Kerley, Vincent Brown returned for their senior years, and Matt Asiata and DeMarco Sampson won medical redshirts and sixth years of eligibility;
(8) New Mexico is .500 (in its last two games).

r-e-s-p-e-c-t look like this:

An article from ESPN's Brad Edwards gives some specifics:
"With its highest-ranked team being fourth this season (TCU) and sixth last season (Utah), the league has performed better in this area than every other conference but the SEC and Big 12. And with three teams being ranked in the final Top 25 each of the two seasons, the Mountain West is as good as the ACC and better than the Big East"

What we learned, week 6

Air Force: 17-20 loss v. TCU. Gotta hand it to the Falcons here-- they played gutsy football, and were admirably unrelenting. TCU pushed them around pretty consistently until the last quarter, but AFA hung in there, clearly wanting it more. The Falcons, led by backup QB Connor Dietz, forced three turnovers, which kept the game close. Two of those came in the redzone, preventing TCU drives of 58 and 68 yards from turning into 14 points for the Frogs. But in the end, Air Force's lines were brilliant. AFA sacked Andy Dalton three times, and in conjunction with a remarkably inhospitable Mother Nature, demoralized the Horned Frogs. Key stat: AFA completed 7 of 18 passes, including one halfback pass for a TD. When AFA's passes keep a defense honest, its running game can excel. AFA ran for 287 yards, or 240 more than TCU's average allowed in the season's first four games.

BYU: 59-21 win at UNLV. It's still not the pass-first, pass-second, and pass-third BYU that we've all grown to know and love/hate, but it certainly was efficient. The Cougars ran well over half the time, garnering almost seven ypc. Hall didn't throw any interceptions, and completed 75% of his passes. The defense was stout and opportunistic, grabbing three UNLV passes and holding the Rebs for under three ypc. Key stat: seven Cougars grabbed multiple passes. BYU is on cruise control, looking world-class against the dregs of its schedule.

Colorado State: 17-24 loss v. Utah. This one has to hurt just a smidge more than an average conference loss. CSU gave up 14 points on turnovers and seven more on a 47-yard TD pass in the last 19 minutes of the game. In the end, it was a shootout and Utah has better horses than CSU for that kind of game. The Utes outgained CSU only 0.4 ypc on average; CSU didn't convert nearly as many third downs as Utah, but that may not have mattered were it not for the interceptions. Key stat: Leonard Mason has broken out; he ran for 130 yards on 24 carries against the Utes' formerly-fearsome rush defense. Colorado State, despite its three-game skid, is a rising threat in the conference. Expect another loss at TCU this week, before the win-loss column turns again toward the Rams' favor.

New Mexico: 37-13 loss at Wyoming. Well, maybe those breakthrough hopes that accompanied the Lobos solid performance against Texas Tech last week might have come with a force majeure clause; snow, ice, wind, and cold weather dogged New Mexico in Laramie, icing the southern team's ground game (UNM couldn't best 2 ypc). Add critical penalties (8 for 64 yards), and a couple interceptions, and suddenly New Mexico is staring at 0-6. Key stat: again the Lobos were abysmal on 3rd or 4th down, converting only 4 of 17. This week's performance, notwithstanding the elements, was the very picture of uninspired football. Coach L had better light a fire under his players in a hurry, or he'll become easier and easier to replace, much sooner than expected.

San Diego State: bye.

TCU: 20-17 win at Air Force. The Wimple acknowledges ignorance about how inclement (in this case extremely cold) weather affects football players and plays. It was 19 degrees, with a wind and drizzle at 5:30 PM gametime in Colorado Springs on Saturday. Add a sour week in practice previously, and probably TCU is lucky have escaped with a win and only a two-spot drop in the AP poll (the Frogs rose a spot in the coaches' poll). Key stat: TCU's o-line allowed three sacks. That hasn't happened since... since... (still checking). The Frogs need to bounce back into dominant form: for example, not allowing three sacks, and not fumbling in the red zone. If TCU indeed does bounce back, this win will end up looking like the CSU win last season. If not, it'll look like BYU's New Mexico win last season: prelude to the fall.

UNLV: 21-59 loss v. BYU. This is getting awfully repetitive: UNLV gave away the crown jewels, or the line of scrimmage, and lost by a ton. BYU outgained UNLV on average 4.4 more ypc., and held the ball ten more minutes than the Rebels. And that's not as bad as it's been for the Rebels this season! Hopes for a turnaround in Las Vegas under Coach Sanford have fled. Key stat: BYU scored 14 points off drives it began by intercepting the Rebels. This would have been a close game had those points gone to UNLV instead.

Utah: 24-17 win at Colorado State. Utah looked fairly flat for about 40 minutes, and then turned on its jets. Terrance Cain connected with David Reed for a 47-yard TD pass 4 minutes before the fourth quarter, and it was all Utah from then until the end. Robert Johnson picked off three Grant Stucker passes, ending each of CSU's remaining drives. Cain engineered touchdowns off two of those INTs, leading Utah to his most impressive victory this season. Key stat: Eddie Wide ran for just over 100 yards on 17 tries. The Utes may not miss Matt Asiata as much as they'd feared.

Wyoming: 37-13 win v. New Mexico. The Cowboys proved an inhospitable host to the Lobos, forcing New Mexico to play one-dimensionally. UNM couldn't manage 2 ypc, while Wyoming executed a very balanced attack. Carta-Samuels led the snowy show, passing adequately (only 50%, but 3 TDs, 0 INTs) but running well. He tallied 54 yards on 10 carries, while freshman Alvester Alexander and Brandon Stewart chugged for 128 yards on 29 carries, and 2 TDs. Key stat: again the Lobos were abysmal on 3rd or 4th down, converting only 4 of 17. Key stat: Wyoming converted almost half of its third and fourth downs (45%). Add stiff run defense, and it appears Wyoming has vacated the conference's basement about a year sooner than expected.

What we learned: week 5

The Tally: 19-15 overall, 5-9 v. the cartel, 5-7 v. '08 bowl teams, 6-0 v. 2A teams.
(2008 tally: 23-10 overall, 7-5 v. the cartel, 6-5 v. '07 bowl teams, 5-1 v. 2A teams;
2007 tally: 14-16 overall, 5-9 v. the cartel, 2-13 v. '06 bowl teams, 3-0 v. 2A teams.)

Air Force: 13-16 OT loss at Navy. The hex continues-- AFA has dropped seven contests in a row to Navy, most of them by just a few points. As with all narrowly decided games, one could point to just one mistake (usually one of many) and say, "But for that error, the outcome would have been..." And how tempting, but incorrect. One cannot separate one mistake from all the others-- and from the opponent's mistakes, etc. So, for Air Force: its futility converting third downs (just three of 16), and kicking crucial field goals, and play calling, etc... it all haunts in Colorado Springs this week. And what worse time to haunt could there be? TCU comes calling in a few days. Tim Jefferson played some and sat out some, and Asher Clark again wasn't a ground-eating machine. Key stat: Jefferson and Clark combined for only 49 yards on 13 carries. AFA is a wounded bird, when it can least afford it.

BYU: 35-17 win v. Utah State. Question: when does BYU rush twice as many times as it passes? Answer: when Max Hall's TD:INT ratio is 1:1! Or perhaps that's just how it seemed Friday. It appears even Bronco Mendenhall sees the wisdom in the old football saying, "Three things can happen when you throw the ball, and two of 'em are bad." Hall threw three TDs and two more INTs, but the Cougars' lines overpowered the Aggie lines. Harvey Unga ran all over the Aggies, tallying 118 in 21 carries. Utah State managed less than three ypc. Key stat: Luke Ashworth filled in for the injured McKay Jacobson very nicely, netting five catches for 91 yards and a touchdown. The cupboard in Provo is deep, and well stocked.

Colorado State: 29-31 loss at Idaho. Who would have told you, five weeks ago, that this post would include the second "loss at Idaho" for the conference? SDSU's loss was marginally excusable, as a bad habit. But Colorado State? Shelley Smith was back at LG; Grant Stucker had a pretty good game; his receivers were OK (19-35 for just under 300 yards and 4 TDs), his rushers decent (Mosure and Mason ran for 4.6 ypc). CSU's rush defense was good (2.1 ypc allowed). Pass defense was weak-- the top two Vandal receivers turned 18 catches into 282 yards and three TDs. Key stat: Idaho blocked a PAT and kept Leonard Mason inches away from the endzone in a two-point conversion attempt in the game's final minutes that would have evened the score. In the end, it appears CSU hasn't learned to take sufficient intensity with it to win close games on the road.

New Mexico: 28-48 loss at Texas Tech. This fifth loss for 2009 has genuinely redeeming features-- the first of the year. New Mexico held Tech to 7 points for 29:59; third-string runningback A.J. Butler ran for over 100 yards; the offense produced three TDs; UNM was +3 in turnovers. Maybe Mike Locksley has turned the ship around to face winning again. Key stat: ten different Lobos caught passes, six of them multiple times. The spread requires completed passes, and this is New Mexico's first showing that all of its players can do that.

San Diego State: 34-17 win v. New Mexico State. Don't look now, (and apparently nobody in San Diego is) but SDSU is developing a home winning streak. This makes three in a row, for still-dwindling crowds. Ryan Lindley didn't have much to do with it (26% completions); chalk this one up to the o-line (3.5 ypc) and defense: it forced five turnovers and held NMSU to less than 2 ypc. Key stat: Walter Kazee's debut: 22 carries, 101 yards. Brady Hoke has needed somebody to step up on the ground, and Kazee shows he's a winning card in Hoke's yet-too-small deck.

TCU: 39-14 win v. SMU. The Horned Frogs began the game like an unranked, unmotivated, rainy-day squad, giving up the ball twice in the game's first ten minutes (although the first of those is forgivable: the ballcarrier was knocked out cold in the fumble-forcing tackle!) Senior Joe Turner rallied the troops, though, and the tables turned. SMU held the ball less than eight minutes in the second half, and let the Frogs' three-prong ground attack (Turner, Wesley, Tucker) get over 5 ypc. Dalton had his worst game, completing only 60% of his passes and an INT. He threw two TDs, however. Key stat: the Frogs won the field position battle consistently, starting only one drive behind their own 30 yard line, and six of 13 drives in SMU territory. Another key stat: safety Alex Ibiloye led the team in tackles, with eight. His step-up is a key to settling a secondary is still searching for its identity in the wake of personel losses this offseason.

UNLV: 23-68 loss at Nevada. Did anything go right Saturday in Reno? UNLV's alleged defense, which has been highly suspect (at best!) all year, went on strike for the second half against Nevada, giving up 42 points in 30 minutes. The Wolpack averaged over ten ypc. on the night, and despite four turnovers, failed to catch only three of 19 passes. Key stat: UNLV managed only 2.6 ypc. This was a one-sided shootout, and perhaps the lowest of many lows in Mike Sanford's tenous career in Las Vegas.

Utah: bye.

Wyoming: 30-28 win at Florida Atlantic. It is tempting to say Wyoming's ship is turning around-- winning with their new scheme is a critical step the Cowboys took Saturday. But prudence requires one mind the inconsistency that will certainly dog Wyoming this season, and perhaps next. But green shoots clearly were in evidence; Wyoming held the ball ten minutes longer than the Owls; they ran it well and often. But best is this week's Key stat: Cowboys caught twelve of Austyn Carta-Samuels first thirteen passes, and 17 of the remaining 25: verily a solid performance. This is more than a green shoot; it is notice to the MWC: Wyoming is already out of the MWC's basement (see UNLV), and will even be dangerous soon enough. Intermittently, for now, but there is hope in Laramie.

What we learned, week 4

The Tally: 16-11 overall, 5-8 v. the cartel, 4-4 v. '08 bowl teams, 6-0 v. 2A teams.
(2008 tally: 20-6 overall, 7-3 v. the cartel, 5-2 v. '07 bowl teams, 5-1 v. 2A teams;
2007 tally: 13-13 overall, 5-8 v. the cartel, 2-10 v. '06 bowl teams, 3-0 v. 2A teams.)

Air Force: 26-14 win v. SDSU. Although not yet well tested, it appears Colorado Springs is not going to be an easy place for visitors to win games. SDSU held the Falcons' usual-gaudy ground game to a pedestrian 243 yards and no TDs (both of AFA's 6-point scores came on defense), and penalty-ridden (-75 yards on 9 flags). But AFA's defense won the day, holding the Aztecs to an embarrassing 1.6 ypc, and touchdown-less until late in the fourth quarter. Reggie Rembert showed his value, getting a pick-six, and Connor Dietz got 60 minutes' experience as a starter in place of Tim Jefferson. AFA continues to show it can win with big pieces missing. Key stat: Asher Clark had only five carries for 20 yards.

BYU: 42-23 win v. Colorado State. Ah, the uptick. Few things are more sure for established college football programs than the heart-warming win following a thoroughly bewildering loss. Florida State further added bewildering to the loss, losing for its first time to USF this week, while CSU provided the fodder for the recovery-win in Provo. Good defense provided the spark, getting two takeaways in the opening frame, and in the end, the bigger, stronger Cougars exhausted the Rams. An under-appreciated win over an under-appreciated program. Key stat: BYU converted 11 of 16 third downs. That's not quite driving at will, but it's close.

Colorado State: 23-42 loss at BYU. There're silver linings here: Grant Stucker had a pretty good day, passing 30-50 for 372 yards, 2 TDs, and 2 interceptions; short Tyson Liggett came from backup to Rashaun Greer to shining star, hauling in 11 passes for 156 yards and a score. But a slew of turnovers in the game's first minutes, and a weak showing from the ground game doomed- but without embarassment- the Rams in the end. Key stat: five CSU receivers grabbed three or more passes.

New Mexico: 17-20 loss v. New Mexico State. It feels like the wheels are falling (have fallen?) off in Albuquerque. When the Lobos' running game finally showed signs of life (6 ypc, but only 3.5 without Demond Dennis's 62-yard scamper), its defense gave its rival a better day on the ground (113 yards on 31 carries for Aggie Sean Smith). When the Lobos' passing game finally showed signs of life (first TD pass this year), UNM gave up a last-second game-winning toss to NM State. Key stat: New Mexico converted only three of 12 third downs. That's moribund, and sadly, familiar. And to top it off, Coach Locksley added dark clouds to the general heaviness by punching one of his assistants in the face. It may not be mathematically possible for things to get any worse, but there's little reason to expect improvement soon.

San Diego State: 14-26 loss at Air Force. It's a simple formula, really: go minus-six in turnover margin, and manage only 1.6 ypc, and you'll lose. Every dang time. This was no exception, and until SDSU protects the ball better and gets more push for its runners, it'll keep competing with New Mexico for a long list of last places. Key stat: you've already read 'em, and probably wept. Here's another: SDSU sold less than 10,000 season tickets this season. The Aztecs have killed whatever buzz hiring Brady Hoke created.

TCU: 14-10 win at Clemson. In the end, probably the best analysis of the Frogs' win in Death Valley was that the Frogs' better array of weapons slowly overwhelmed the Tigers' reliance on the very remarkable C. J. Spiller. TCU stopped Spiller just enough to keep Clemson's tally at ten points, and fielded just enough fresh legs and brilliance in the air to tally 14 points. The difference was most obvious in the one scoreless quarter-- the third. TCU out-gained Clemson 98 yards to eight, while holding the ball for over ten minutes. Clemson's d-line never recovered. Key stat: Dalton ran for 62 yards and three first downs in the second half. His "inverted veer," run off audibles, was the x-factor, similar to Jeremy Kerley's Wild Frog plays against BYU last year. Clemson couldn't stop it, and now Frog fans are clamoring to know what else TCU has up its sleeve for tight games.

UNLV: 27-30 loss at Wyoming. UNLV lost its second game this season (see Oregon State) more by turnovers than bad performances elsewhere. The Rebels slightly bested the Cowboys in nearly every other phase of the game; but UNLV fumbled away its first possession, leading to Wyoming's first field goal, and Tashaun Gipson snagged an otherwise-UNLV-touchdown at the Wyoming one yard line early in the second half. Gipson got another INT later the game, leading to a Wyoming field-goal. Key stat: UNLV gave up two field goals to Wyoming off turned-over drives, and lost six more with the goal-line interception, and lost by three points. That's living too close to the edge.

Utah: 30-14 win v. Louisville. Utah hasn't lost at home since... since at least 2007. The Utes continued their winning ways at Rice-Eccles with a characteristic win over a shaky Big East team: forcing turnovers, good rush defense, and some striking pass plays. Terrence Cain was ultra-efficient (over 77% completion), and Eddie Wide filled most of the gap created by Matt Asiata's season-ending knee injury. The Utes will face much tougher defenses in conference play, and won't be able to depend on Cain as successfully as they could against the Cardinals. Key stat: even without his longest carry (25 yards), Eddie Wide still averaged 5.8 ypc. He's not an every-down back, but he'll carry the Utes further than dismayed Ute fans give him credit for.

Wyoming: 30-27 win v. UNLV. Are these green shoots? Three passing touchdowns and no interceptions for Carta-Samuels? Or is that the happy coincidence of a beleaguered offense and and equally-beleaguered UNLV "defense"? Because UNLV slowed Hawaii's defense appreciably last week, one may be forgiven for thinking Wyoming's reconstruction is proceeding with some visible result. Don't expect consistency in Laramie, however, for another year. Away from it: perhaps yet another year. Key stat: true freshman Alvester Alexander led the Cowboys on the ground, netting only 42 yards. Minus his longest run (10 yards) he averaged less than three per carry. Passing attacks need viable rushing correlatives, kids. Wyoming won't really fly until it can grind out a tough yards on command (or something like unto it). Wyoming has done neither for a long, long time.

What we learned, week 3

The Tally: 14-10 overall, 3-8 v. the cartel, 3-4 v. '08 bowl teams, 6-0 v. 2A teams.
(2008 tally: 17-5 overall, 6-3 v. the cartel, 4-1 v. '07 bowl teams, 5-1 v. 2A teams;
2007 tally: 9-12 overall, 5-8 v. the cartel, 1-9 v. '06 bowl teams, 1-0 v. 2A teams.)

Air Force: 37-13 win at New Mexico. AFA is glad to have safety and kick returner Reggie Rembert back-- and hopes it hasn't lost Tim Jefferson for too long. Suddenly Coach Calhoun looks more than brilliant for practicing Asher Clark at QB in the spring; how the Falcons respond to a new signal caller, be it Clark or Connor Dietz, is the critical issue in the Academy's immediate future. In Albuquerque, so be sure, AFA outclassed its hosts from the first whistle, holding the ball almost twice as long as the Lobos, and forcing three turnovers. Key stat: newbie QB Dietz was 2-4 through the air, including a touchdown pass to Kevin Fogler. As long as Dietz successfully runs both dimensions of the Falcons' attack, Jefferson's absence won't derail the Falcon's third run to a bowl in three years.

BYU: 28-54 loss v. Florida State. Words don't fail a blogger often, but this one is simply inexplicable. The answer is not that Florida State woke up Saturday and decided to run the ball all over BYU; nor is it that BYU is slow, or untalented. More likely the answer lies somewhere in the Cougars' misperception that the Seminoles that nearly lost to Jacksonville State were coming to Provo. Instead, a hungry, physical team tribe of Seminoles showed up, and played with more intensity and mental sharpness than the Cougars, controlling the line of scrimmage and forcing five turnovers. Key stat: Florida State converted 13 of 15 third downs. That, my friends, is how you put Boise State back ahead in the race to the BCS.

Colorado State: 35-20 win v. Nevada. Don't look now, but Colorado State has put together its second complete team in as many years. While yet unwilling to pronounce the Rams old-fashioned good, the Wimple recognizes that CSU is the conference's only 3-0 team, and rides a six-game winning streak. Yesterday's win over Nevada featured a late lead so large that the Rams put in their second and third teams, against which the Wolfpack promptly scored twice. CSU scored once on a lateral to WR Dion Morton, who then tossed the ball to TE Eric Peitz. Key stat: CSU forced five turnovers. DC Larry Kerr said, "Our guys play with confidence. What we added today is the guys played smart. They didn't make dumb mistakes."

New Mexico: 13-37 loss at Air Force. The slide continues, although the Lobos did score their first offensive touchdown this season. AFA deliberately manhandled the bigger New Mexico: aside from James Wright's two long TD runs, New Mexico managed only 2.3 ypc. B. R. Holbrook played extensively, and performed lukewarmly, except for two interceptions. Key stat: New Mexico converted only three of 14 third or fourth downs. Until the Lobos can sustain drives, their season appears to be irredeemably in the tank, puddling as motivation for improvement in '10.

San Diego State: 20-34 loss at Idaho. San Diego State doesn't remember how to win on the road. They haven't done it in a few years, and now have given up their best chance to relearn in 2009. Air Force, Colorado State, Utah, and UNLV likely will be much ruder hosts than Idaho was. But their bigger problem may be in the trenches, where SDSU averaged only 2.4 ypc. Against Idaho. What'd they give up on the ground? 3.6 ypc. This team is just not physical enough, and will flounder until it becomes such. Add an early pick-six, and SDSU never recovered. Key stat: -85 yards on penalties. Sustaining drives has to begin somewhere, and not shooting oneself in the foot would be a good first step for the Aztecs.

TCU: 56-21 win v. Texas State. TCU played flat, but not too flat to win. At the end of the first quarter and the beginning of the second, TCU kept Texas State from scoring for 12 consecutive plays in the red zone, but collapsed on the 13th. They'd never have been there had Andy Dalton not thrown a bad-decision interception, attempting to avoid a sack. Good rushing (and Bart Johnson) saved the day; TCU averaged 6.2 ypc. Johnson had a career-best 7 catches for 70 yards. Hughes and the defense were usually dominant, except for a persistent soft spot in the secondary that Texas State exploited. Key stat: Dalton completed 75% of his passes. He'll need to be in synch with his receivers in a week; Clemson will be a much tougher test.

UNLV: 34-33 win v. Hawaii. This one meant a lot, for recruiting, for town pride (UNLV has a high Hawaiian and Polynesian population), for a fledgling winning program, and for a defense that caved on the final drive last week. This week it stopped a relentless offense on its final drive, preserving a victory. The (formerly Rainbow-) Warriors drove at will most of the game, but the Rebels never panicked. The Clayton-Wolfe connection was vibrant; the run defense stout; the run-offense servicable (Trotter talled 68 yards on 15 carries); and despite two costly interceptions, the Rebels proved themselves superior. Key stat: Hawaii pounded UNLV's secondary for almost 500 yards. Unless UNLV can figure out how to stop a pass attack, it will sit at home for (another!) bowl season.

Utah: 24-31 loss at Oregon. Three words: first-year quarterback. Terrence Cain, who will do very well later this season and next year for the Utes, played like the first-year quarterback he is when challenged: inconsistently. He had a "dead spot" midway through the first half, missing 11 consecutive passes, while Oregon scored 21 points. He got his game back after halftime, but was too far behind to pull off the upset. Key stat: Duck runner LaMichael James broke off 152 yards on 27 carries against the once-mighty Ute rush defense.

Wyoming: 0-24 loss at Colorado. Wyoming is fulfilling the Wimple's very dire predictions of an offense-less season in 2009. After being shut out in Boulder, Coach Christensen jettisoned hopes of a JUCO-jumpstart, and announced he'll start the true freshman Austyn Carta-Samuels against UNLV this weekend. Carta-Samuels had been getting the majority of the snaps anyway, so this isn't too big a change. Key stat: only David Leonard caught more than two passes against the Buffs. Until his receivers brethren start hauling in more passes, the Wyoming blizzard game plan will keep floundering.

It's what's for dinner

At least SDSU and Utah have the excuse of a road game. But really, BYU: what was that you laid in Provo Saturday? Really, Boise State couldn't be happier.

What we learned: Week 2

The OOC Tally: 11-6 overall, 3-5 v. the cartel, 2-2 v. '08 bowl teams, 5-0 v. 2A teams.
(2008 tally: 10-4 overall, 2-3 v. the cartel, 1-1 v. '07 bowl teams, 4-1 v. 2A teams;
2007 tally: 7-8 overall, 3-7 v. the cartel, 0-5 v. '06 bowl teams, 1-0 v. 2A teams.)

Air Force: 13-20 loss at Minnesota. The Falcons scared the bejeebers out of a larger Minnesota team, and lost in the face of a nearly flawless performance from Gopher QB Weber. The Falcons couldn't disrupt the Adam Weber-Eric Decker connection (10 receptions, 113 yards), including three key first down catches by Decker in the second half. AFA sunk its own boat when Minnesota returned a fumble for a touchdown late in the game. Key stat: AFA got zero touchdowns from 13 tries in the redzone.

BYU: 54-3 win at Tulane. Letdown? Who said anything about a letdown after the thriller at OU last week? Oh: the Wimple did? Well, not this week; not these Cougars. BYU got rolling slowly (the Cougars only led 3-0 starting the second quarter) but finished with 527 yards, giving up only 162. Probably the most important event of the day was another injury along BYU's offensive line. Braden Hansen (Jason Speredon's replacement) will miss up to a month rehabbing his ACL; sophomore Marco Thorson replaces him. Key stat: no one BYU receiver caught more than 3 passes, and eight receivers caught more than one.

Colorado State: 24-23 win v. Weber State. There may be no moral victories in football, but CSU came about as close as possible to giving one to Weber State. The 2A team converted 13 of 23 3rd and 4th downs, while CSU converted none; the 2A team held the ball fully sixteen minutes longer than CSU. How did Colorado State win? The Rams were +2 for turnovers, including a fumble recovery late in the fourth quarter to seal the victory. Key stat: 23 rush attempts for only 63 yards-- a measley 2.7 yards per carry. That's not going to cut it, and the Rams hope Shelley Smith's return (which is exactly when?) will be (a) soon, and (b) bolster that poor showing.

New Mexico: 10-44 loss v. Tulsa. It would be hard to imagine a worse start to this season than the Lobos particular version of 0-2. Fans had such high hopes for the many returners and new players. Instead they got another dose of ineffective quarterbacking from senior Donovan Porterie and young B. R. Holbrook. Demond Dennis looked very pedestrian at tailback, again. While Tulsa tore through the Lobos' D, the formerly proud New Mexico running game only managed 2.2 yards per carry. Key stat: zero offensive touchdowns in 2009. Still.

San Diego State: 35-19 win v. Southern Utah. That's more like it: Ryan Lindley, Vincent Brown, and Brandon Sullivan led the Aztecs to their first win under Brady Hoke. The offensive line was sharp, the defense swarming; next comes an incrementally more difficult test: doing the same on the road against a bottom-tier 1A team. Key stat: SDSU converted 8 of 14 third and fourth downs. Sustained drives cure a multitude of ills in football, and that medicine was sorely needed in San Diego.

TCU: 30-14 win at Virginia. The Frogs are not showing any more than they must so far, and didn't need to show much to beat the Cavaliers. Jerry Hughes was unstoppable, as were his three new starting brethren on the line (and their backups); after a slow start, Dalton was excellent, going 10-10 and four rushes for 28 yards to finish the game. Key stat: five different Frogs had seven or more rushes, and four had multiple receptions. That's spreading the ball around-- and not even showing off the new passing attack about which Frog fans have heard (but not seen) so much.

UNLV: 21-23 loss v. Jaquizz Rodgers. (OK, ok, "Oregon State.") As much as the Wimple loves UNLV, it appears to be time to narrow the eyes and admit that the Rebs' upgrade on defense failed. UNLV could not stop Jaquizz Rodgers. All Rodgers did was carry the ball 26 times for 166 yards and a TD, and catch it ten times for 65 more yards. And when it counted most-- up by one, third down, less than a minute left, the opponent deep in its own territory, the Rebs gave up a pass intereference penalty on that gave the aforementioned Mr. Rodgers the chance to get the Beavers into field goal range, which he promptly did. Key stat: backup QB Mike Clausen roared into the game after starter Omar Clayton nursed a hurt knee, and promptly led UNLV on two touchdown drives, taking the lead for the first time in the game. That said, the Wimple resigns from the Rebel fanclub until UNLV finds a run defense that can stop at least a Sunday school class.

Utah: 24-14 win at San Jose State. One expects a bumpy ride when breaking in a new QB, and Saturday was a stomach-turner for Ute fans. Utah didn't pull away until the fourth quarter, and may have lost Matt Asiata for a week or two in the process. Whether the offense has gelled enough to continue their nation-leading winning streak becomes a pointed question at Oregon this week. Key stat: SJSU managed only 1.0 yards per carry. Perhaps Koa M'isi's return was the spark the Ute D needed to reclamp opponents on the ground.

Wyoming: 10-41 loss v. Texas. It looked surprisingly even at halftime: Texas only up 13-10. But by then Colt McCoy and the Longhorns had adjusted to the altitude and reeled off the game's remaining 28 points. But green shoots abound in Wyoming. Eleven Cowboys caught passes; Carta-Samuels looked almost good as the backup true freshman. The defense, in a truly impossible situation, played manfully. Key stat: Wyoming complete 23 passes (out of 50). Improvement there is sure to happen, and will become lethal late this season.

What we learned:

Beginning a new tradition at The Wimple is this team-by-team breakdown of the weekend's MWC games, plus a snapshot of the conference performance in the last three opening weeks.

The Tally: 6-2 overall, 2-2 v. the cartel, 2-0 v. '08 bowl teams, 3-0 v. 2A teams.
(2008 tally: 6-2 overall, 1-1 v. the cartel, 1-1 v. '07 bowl teams, 2-1 v. 2A teams;
2007 tally: 5-3 overall, 3-2 v. the cartel, 0-1 v. '06 bowl teams, 1-0 v. 2A teams.)

AFA: Troy Calhoun is sticking with his formula, which he revealed a few days prior to the opener, "I just think you’ve got to begin from scratch." Later he added, "We had a bunch of young ones that I think down the road are going to be good players, and yet what we’re going to do is we’re going to ask them to do it real soon." And so the coach sent in 15 freshmen during the Academy's first game. They joined about a dozen veteran sophomores, making AFA's performance Saturday even more intriguing: they absolutely dominated a 2A team. 72-0 was the final tally. Minnesota only has about 30 minutes' film on the first team, which largely sat out the second half. Key stat: Jefferson was 5-7 through the air for 102 yards and one touchdown, playing only about one half. If he can compliment Air Force's ground game with any semblance of a passing game, AFA will be very dangerous.

BYU: If there's fire where there's smoke, BYU is flaming hot. National title contender hot? Speculation to that effect has sprung up all over the sports chattersphere. This year's Cougars neatly pulled all of Boise State's spotlight onto themselves with the win over OU, and have a firm grasp on the MWC's banner. Max Hall was brilliant when it mattered: down by 6 in the fourth quarter, he led a Brian Johnson-like 8:38 minute, 16-play, 78-yard drive, converting five third or fourth downs, ending with a TD pass to a shockingly exposed McKay Jacobson. Key stat: Harvey Unga's backup, Bryan Kariya, rushed for 42 yards caught four passes for 76 yards. Mendenhall said he should be the player of the game.
If Florida State beats Miami tonight, and both teams meet undefeated in a few weeks, all eyes will be on Provo and the newly impressive BYU defense. The Wimple can't imagine a better showcase for the MWC. Meanwhile, Bronco Mendenhall is passing out earplugs to prevent any echos of '84 from reaching his team's ears...

CSU: The MWC's other upset of a cartel program came in the Rocky Mountain Showdown, in which the Rams beat the Buffaloes for the first time in most of the players' lifetimes. Fairchild's lines won the day, even without their star: Leonard Mason netted 107 yards in 23 carries, while all-MWC LG Shelley Smith sat out with an ankle injury. Defensive frontmen Macon, Morehead, Millerand, and Whittier led the Ram D that held CU to a TCU-esque 29 yards on the ground. Fifth-year senior QB Grant Stucker, starting for the first time, was adequate (10 of 17, 208 yds, 1 touchdown, 1 interception), while his receivers were very good.

New Mexico: the Lobos will want to forget this one. They went to College Station, lost two fumbles, gave up over 600 yards and 40 points. Demond Dennis ran like a freshman, Donovan Porterie couldn't turn redzone snaps into points, and safety Ian Clarke re-injured his shoulder. Key stat: UNM netted 0.9 yard per carry. Texas A&M's rush defense probably isn't as randy as TCU's, BYU's, Utah's, CSU's, AFA's. . . so until somebody lights a fire under the Lobos' line, Albuquerque is going to start talking about bowl-less streaks...

SDSU: The MWC's other unimpressive coaching debut came in the Rose Bowl, where Brady Hoke's Aztecs looked good for about twenty minutes, and then the wheels came off. SDSU gave up 33 unanswered points after scoring two quick touchdowns. Key stats: SDSU netted only 39 yards rushing, while Ryan Lindley and his receivers connected only eleven of 34 attempts after the first quarter. That kind of offense-less streak will make the few remaining Aztec fans pine for Chuck Long if it continues much longer.

TCU: bye

UNLV: Few coaches' seats are as hot as Mike Sanford's at UNLV, and the fifth-year leader of the Rebels did what he's done every year since his first: win the first game. This season, his troops did it convincingly, beating a 2A program 38-3. The offense looks very good: Clayton was flawless; UNLV had no turnovers; the running game was fine.
Stopping the 2A team's running game less fine for about a half, but in the second half, the defense rose up and that was that. If Sacramento State's Terrance Dailey netted over 100 yards on the ground; think what JaQuizz Rogers might get in a week... So the Rebels' run defense will continue to add gray hairs to Sanford's head for at least a week, and absent considerable improvement, much longer. Key stat: Channing Trotter also bested the century mark on the ground, netting 102 yards in 16 carries. For now, he's the Rebs' go-to back.

Utah: That giant whooshing sound you hear from the Wasatch Front in fact is not BYU fans' collective sigh of relief that they somehow escaped OU's clutches with a win, but instead is Utah fans' sigh of relief that they are going to be OK at quarterback this season. Terrence Cain performed very well against Utah State, as did new starting receivers David Reed and John Peel. The Utes' run defense may attract concern, giving up 3.8 ypc (not counting Robert Turbin's 96-yard touchdown scamper); clearly DE Koa Misi's absence matters.
Key stat: Jordan Wynn did not play. Whittingham is letting Cain garner all of the game experience so far; he'll need it for Oregon in two weeks. But if Cain goes down, the Utes'll find themselves in a scary place: Cain is presently the only quarterback on the team to have D-1 experience.

Wyoming: This may end up Wyoming's only win of the season, but barely beating a 2A team is better than losing to one. And there's good news amid the flotsam: the offense works some of the time. Robert Benjamin and Austyn Carta-Samuels will only get better, and they ran the scheme decently well, going 16 for 31 for 188 yards, and didn't throw any interceptions. The Cowboys could rely on their ground game to get points: Darius Terry and freshman Alvester Alexander proved adequate, combining for 180 yards and three touchdowns. The youth movement is underway in Laramie, and perhaps by this time next year, it'll net reasonable bowl hopes.
Key stat: David Leonard and Orlando Arnold combined for 11 catches and 134 yards. They are turning into the Cowboys' best weapons.

Quest for perfection: TCU

Capping the preseason at The Purple Wimple are the TCU Horned Frogs-- and not just because the Wimple is unabashedly biased, but because TCU has the MWC's best chances of running the table and carrying the conference's banner in the post-season. The reasons for excitement about the '09 Frogs are legion.

First, and foremost: few cartel-outsider teams have fielded more talent, experience, and as high a pre-season ranking as have this season's Frogs. (Perhaps only '09 Boise State and '08 BYU are/were similarly situated.) Second, TCU's schedule is pretty good. No Thursday night road games following shortly after a season-defining out-of-conference game; in fact, no weeknight games at all, for the first time in... in over a decade.

Third, east-coast media. The MWC has been an afterthought for the dominant media, in large part because those NY-based chatterers rarely get a chance to see the conference's teams play. When they do, the results have been very nice. Case in point: TCU v. BYU last season, on Thursday, televised on Versus. TCU, unranked going into the game, leveraged that win to a 15th place in the following week's polls. Case in point: Utah approached the Sugar Bowl a heavy underdog, and rode their victory to a 2nd place finish to the season. Thus the importance of TCU's games at Virginia and at Clemson.

Looking more closely at the Frogs, the good news begins in the trenches. On offense, TCU returns the conference's most dominant pair of tackles and more talent at guard than ever in recent memory. (pictured: LT Marshall Newhouse) Very good words have filtered out of camp about the performance of new starter Jake Kirkpatrick at center. On defense, the stand-out performances of the three juniors at DT and RE have quelled fears that the Frogs may not have the horses up front to spread pressure away from all-world DE Jerry Hughes.

Other notable replacements for departed senior stars appear to be performing very well as new starters, Tank Carder and Daryl Washington at LB being most notable. The only question remaining for which Frog fans may yet have reason to grumble is at strong safety, where Colin Jones, Jurrell Thompson, and Malcolm Williams are competing.

TCU replaced its offensive coordinator, promoting two assistants, and brought in Rusty Burns to coach the WRs. These changes herald a higher emphasis on the passing game, for which the Frogs have the personnel to put on a real air show. Junior QB Andy Dalton, starts his third season, working behind the best line he's ever had. He will spread the ball to the conference's deepest corps of wideouts and tight ends. (pictured: WR, KR Jeremy Kerley)

On the ground, Gary Patterson took great pains to stock the proverbial cupboard against the possibility of repeating TCU's dismal showing in the redzone last year against Utah. Joe Turner returns at RB, this season trailed on the three-deep by at least two eye-popping performers in Ed Wesley and Matthew Tucker. Waiting in the wings are three (yes, three!) game-changing runningbacks, who either will redshirt or sit out for the mandatory transfer year.

Has this coin a flip side? Yes.

When TCU travels to Provo in October, it will take along a over-four-year long losing streak in the state of Utah. The Wimple believes this is a symptom of the Frogs' inability to carry sufficient intensity on the road to overmatch their foes. In conference games, this problem is nearly extinct; in non-conference games it usually doesn't manifest because TCU's OOC opponents tend to be either sugerpuffs or media darlings against which CGP has stoked the underdog mentality very successfully. TCU's success in the fight for the conference title, and as a BCS buster, depends, then, on how much intensity the Frogs muster while travelling. For sure BYU will be red-hot for its tilt with TCU; Air Force may be flying high as well when the Frogs come calling. These are traps into which TCU has never avoided falling for an entire season, at least not since the leather-helmet era. Witness: Utah '08, SMU '05, Southern Miss '03, San Jose State '00.

This year, however, there's simply no excuse. TCU at least matches its opponents man for man in terms of talent and experience. In most cases, it bests them. This is the season where only one loss will feel like too many; where perfection is an attainable goal (apologies to BYU for reminding it of its ill-fated quest; and to TCU for perhaps cursing it with such a description!) If Gary Patterson rouses his team's competitive fires to the uttermost for hostile crowds, TCU will enjoy the most successful season of any MWC team in the conference's short history.

Quest for redemption: BYU

Imagine a team that goes 32-7 over three seasons, never losing at home during that time, garnering a pair of conference championships, bowl victories, and miracle-finish wins over its cross-town rival, the nation's longest winning streak, and 42 three-star or better recruits along the way.

Those are all the ingredients for a juggernaut except one: hunger. Or call it want-to, or kick-your-can-up-one-side-of-the-field-and-down-the-other. BYU had it in '06 and '07, but lacked that final garnish in 2008. The difference? Coach Mendenhall said showed up when playing from behind, and that his staff hadn't coached the players on how to come from behind. "We were protecting last year, rather than pursuing what was next. And there's a huge difference."

Very diplomatic; and very unsatisfying. DE Jan Jorgensen is more honest: "I was a lost soul when it came to football," he says. "Our whole team was lost. . . We were a team without an identity. . . It was like that for a lot of us. I had never felt that at BYU before." The Cougars had been on the top of the mountain for two years, and the enthusiastic expectations that they would top higher mountains wore on them. "Football was not fun," he says. "We played not to lose. There was so much pressure on us last year, so much of it self-created, that football wasn't what it should be -- a fun game."

So how does this downcast crew get its mojo back? Jorgensen says fun was the missing ingredient in 2008. Max Hall echoes the sentiment, when he explains the formula: "We're loose, having fun again."

Fun is the first step. Replacing key personnel is a less sexy answer, but is just as important. And not going as well, either, because of a remarkable string of injuries in Provo this fall. Four seniors graduated on the Cougars' offensive line, and one of their replacements will miss 2009 with an injury. The only returner, LT Matt Reynolds, missed most of practice with a broken finger. He'll get one week of practice before the first snap against Oklahoma.

Cornerback is another question mark for the Cougars. Likely new starter Robbie Buckner missed most of fall camp with an injury; the other starter, Brandon Bradley, missed some of it injured.

Bright spots? There are many. Foremost, all indications point to a reinvigorated team spirit. No more pithy slogans, or blinding hype. It's a fun game, after all; remember? More specifically, DT Russell Tialeva won't leave on a mission until after the season. Vic So'oto is fitting in well as a LB-turned backup DE. The linebacking corps is deep, strong, and experienced. Max Hall is spreading the ball around better than last year. The Cougars have perhaps their best backfield this decade: Manase Tonga, pictured below, returns, joining Harvey Unga (occasionally injured this fall) and J. J. DiLuigi, all of whom have had good camps when playing. Tonga's return is particularly important given the questions at o-line; the returning runner is BYU's best backfield blocker.

McKay Jacobsen, pictured at middle, appears ready to meet the high expectations that greeted his return from a mission; Dennis Pitta, pictured at top, and Andrew George are sharp at TE.

So what's the prognosis for BYU? The Wimple is tempted to downgrade the high expectations given them after spring; instability on the o-line is not a trifling weakness. But after a loss to OU, BYU remains as good, or better, than every remaining team on its schedule. Getting Florida State, Colorado State, TCU, Air Force, and Utah at home has to be the best-breaking difficult schedule in the nation. BYU is the reasonable choice to win every one of those games-- even if only by a hair's breadth.

The biggest condition is the least predictable: injuries. If the Cougars have exhausted the injury bug, look for BYU to remind the conference why it was so feared prior to October 16, 2008.

No victory lap: Utah

The Utes return only half of the starters that won a BCS bowl last season; they replace a program-defining quarterback, key coaching personnel, and take the new crew-- and an NCAA-leading winning streak-- on the road for critical games against BYU and TCU.

That was the Utes' situation to open the 2005 season, and it's nearly identical to what they face this season. The difference?

Depth.

Kyle Whittingham's program has recruited very well since taking over the helm in Salt Lake. Rivals ranked six of Whitt's '05 recruits three stars or better; ten in '06; eight in '07; ten in '08; and a full 16 in '09, including a five-star DE. As crude as the Rivals ranking system may be, it clearly indicates the increase in the caliber of athletes Utah has attracted to its program in the last half-decade.

So will all of that depth adequately fill in the holes in Utah's depth chart created by last year's critical graduating seniors? That's the $64,000 question. Whittingham says, "We're at a point where we shouldn't have a dip down," and as easy as it is to dismiss that as coachspeak, smart money must favor the Utes in all but its most challenging contests: road trips to Oregon, TCU, and BYU. Were it not for Whittingham's surprise flirtation with starting true freshman Jordan Wynn at QB, pictured above, while saying that five-star JUCO transfer Terrence Cain, pictured below, wasn't really doing any worse under center, smart money might favor the Utes in one or two of those games, too.

Coach W hasn't named a starter yet, but Wynn's surprising climb into the two-deep prompted returning backup Corbin Louks to transfer to Nevada. Neither Wynn nor Cain have ever taken a snap in D-1, so expecting either one to produce the kind of calm game-winning drives in pressure-cooked situations like Brian Johnson did repeatedly in 2008 is asking to have one's cake, and eating it, too. Simply put, Utah will downgrade at least slightly at QB this season.

And QB is just the first depth-question. Ben Vroman and Sean Sellwood replace Louie Sakoda as kicker and punter. Neither will be as good.

Brandon Burton and speedy R.J. Stanford take over from CBs Sean Smith and Brice McCain.

The Utes must replace their right guard and tackle at least once: slated starters Caleb Schlauderaff and Walter Watts both missed practices with knee injuries in the fall.

Derrick Shelby replaces DE Paul Kruger and Nai Fotu replaces Koa Misi while Misi recovers from an injury

With so many new starters, the really remarkable story coming out of SLC this season will be how far the Utes don't fall. 2009 will not be an '05 redux, when the Utes barely managed bowl eligibility. Only a few programs in the conference-- and in the country, really-- can replace as star-studded a cast as graduated from the U after 2008. Despite all the new names penciled into starting spots for the '09 Utes, look for Utah to be just fine in 2009. Will they compete for the conference crown?

No.

But they'll win all their home games, and the easy road games. And look for the Utes to be favored for the MWC title next year, when they face BYU and TCU in SLC.

That's a mighty quick turnaround, all things considered.