MWC unit previews: SECONDARIES

The Wimple's ranking of the MWC's secondaries, best to worst:

Air Force's corners are the conference's best returning tandem: Anthony Wright and Reggie Rembert were 1st- and 2nd-team all-MWC. Jon Davis joins returns as safety with them, and the only newcomer is Phil Ohili, who has two years' experience as a backup. Air Force and TCU had the best pass defenses in the MWC last season, holding opposing squads to 154 and 157 ypg, and 57.6% and 47.4% completions. AFA returns 75% of its starters secondary; TCU only 40%-- although new starting cornerback Jason Teague played lots and often in '09. AFA's and TCU's secondaries are the class of the conference in 2010.

See TCU's and the rest of the MWC's secondary ranking after the jump.

MWC unit previews: Special Teams

Preseason practices are just weeks away.  To get you there, the Wimple begins the MWC unit rankings, starting with special teams. 

[updated] AIR FORCE spring report

The Air Force Falcons were the first in the MWC to break out the pads for spring drills this year, getting underway in balmy mid-February in Colorado Springs (average February high: 44). Troy Calhoun replaced one coach on each side of the ball, but the transitions should have been relatively easy, as neither departed coach was exclusively responsible for the team's schemes.

AFA returns every player from 2009 that carried the ball- an astonishing fact, given the Falcons' reliance on its ground game to move the ball. It seems therefore a given that coach Calhoun will be focusing not ballcarriers this spring, but on both lines, where the Falcons are practically holding an open tryout for starters. The entire 2009 starting o-line graduated, as did two of the three d-linemen.

So the first, and biggest, spring question at the Academy this year was: will backups Chase Darden, A.J. Wallerstein, Michael Hester, Tyler Schonsheck, and Blake Dowd cut the mustard up front for the offense? Similarly, will Wylie Wikstrom (DE) and Ryan Gardner (DT) nail down the starting snaps this month?

Some Academy watchers think that the complete turnover on the o-line will not be as disruptive as a similar event would be at another school. That none of the '09 backups were freshmen may indicate that the new starts will bring significant experience to their starts in 2010. Whether or not that is true, the jury is out on the beef up front until September.

Until then, it looks like four of the five spots up front on offense are filled: LT Jason Kons (freshman 6-4, 250), C Michael Hester (sophomore, 6-3, 240), RG A. J. Wallerstein (sophomore, 6-4, 285) and RT Chase Darden (junior, 6-3, 255). The left guard spot may go to Tyler Schonsheck (junior, 6-1, 265), but his competition with Nick Jackson (freshman, 6-4, 270) is ongoing. Look for the Academy's o-line recruits Jacob Ehm (6-6, 245), Joe Frank (6-4, 290), Drew Kerber (6-3, 280), Tristian Turknett (6-2, 287), Jake Welch (6-3, 290), and Charlie Zemko (6-3, 250) as backups, at most, in 2010. More likely, given the youth ahead of them on the two-deep, they'll not surface in games for another year.

On defense, Ryan Gardner and Wylie Wikstrom do appear to have secured the top spots on the chart at DT and DE. Both had exemplary springs. Elsewhere, only S Chris Thomas and LB John Falgout leave large holes in the team's production, to be filled by younger players. Phil Ofili and Brian Corcoran may replace Thomas and Falgout. Reports out of spring were very positive about the Falcons' secondary, though the lineup to replace Thomas remains unsettled.

The surprise out of spring is how strong quarterback Connor Dietz showed-- so much so that one cannot say Tim Jefferson is the clear starter going into fall drills. This kind of competition has to be good for the Academy, however, and may surpass the emergence of a starting o-line (which may be largely complete) as the top story for the team this August.

The 2010 schedule, recently out, features a blockbuster conference showdown in week two against BYU, in Colorado Springs. This is precisely the kind of battle that plays well in the Falcons' hands; they'll throw their experienced, difficult ground attack and speedy defense at the Cougar's new starting quarterback and defensive line. Bronco Mendenhall has to be sweating those matchups already. An upset in week two may signal another year in which the Academy muscles its way into the league's top three.

AIR FORCE wraps up, topped out?

What does an all-senior offensive line, a returning QB, two tailbacks, and a smash-mouth defense get these days for a service academy? Air Force took these assets into 2009, and emerged with its third straight bowl bid, and only bowl win of the decade, topping Houston (convincingly) in a chilly Armed Forces Bowl, and tallying its third eight-or-better win season in a row. QB Tim Jefferson completed long passes to returning WRs Kevin Fogler (pictured) and Jonathan Warzeka, adding hope to Falcon fans' expectations of a fourth bowl and second post-season win in 2010. More importantly, Jefferson's aerial prowess (10-14 for 161 yards) forced Houston to give the servicemen room on the ground to do what they do best: run. Jared Tew and Asher Clark ('10 sr. and jr., respectively) took 60% of AFA's ground snaps in the game, for 75% of its ground yards, and 80% of its touchdowns.

This summary was about what AFA watchers expected to see all year from the Falcons, but injuries hobbled Jefferson and Clark for much of the season. Sophomore Connor Dietz and junior Jared Tew stepped into the QB and RB slots effectively enough to keep the Academy's post-season run going, but the team standouts came from the defense. DBs Reggie Rembert, Anthony Wright, and Chris Thomas plagued offenses all season, in front of another great defensive front for the Academy.

Glass-half-empty people may focus on AFA's inability in '09 to cover any of the distance between it and the MWC's big three, but the Wimple is the half-glass-full type, and prefers to note how the Academy hasn't lost any distance to those three, either. And that's saying something, considering how steadily AFA battled injuries this season, and how much the MWC's top teams have improved in the last few years. AFA took Navy and Utah to overtime (losing both tilts) and played TCU to the wire in a blizzard-like game in Colorado Springs, perhaps covering the memory of its lopsided defeat in '08 with its manly showing in '09. For a second year, AFA finished fourth in the conference, beating all of its teams except Utah, TCU, and BYU.

Does the outlook brighten for 2010, or have the Falcons reached the highest altitude? There seems ready room for improvement in the Falcons' OOC performance, perhaps generating a top-25 ranking. AFA played Minnesota close, and missed its first victory over Navy in years by a missed field goal; they almost got a second victory over Utah and TCU in three years, as well. Jefferson, Clark, Dietz, Tew, Fogler, Warzeka, Rembert, and Wright all return; the Academy's skill and speed positions are well-stocked. Jefferson's connections with his wideouts in the bowl fund optimism that the Academy can manage a more balanced attack in 2010-- and a balanced pass-run option attack would be frightening to opposing defenses indeed. But... (how rarely to college teams avoid that rejoinder!)

But both lines lose seniors in droves. Four o-linemen graduate, including all-MWC Nick Charles and Peter Lusk; two of the three d-linemen played their last this week, including all-MWC noseguard Ben Garland. Both AFA inside LBs graduate as well. Replacing these interior starters will be coach Calhoun's biggest worry this offseason, and any dropoff in production from the new personel up front will make merely maintaining course in 2010 a program success. That no freshmen appeared on the late-season two-deep on either line may indicate the Falcons have depth enough to make this transition less painfully than in the past-- but that will remain a hopeful guess until the first whistle in September.

TCU 20, Air Force 17

It was ugly (similar in many ways to the Colorado State game last season) but still a W, and in any good season there are some squeakers. Chalk this up in that category for now, and in a few weeks we'll know if it was merely a hiccup, or the signal for worse things.

Dalton had a hard time finding receivers with warm enough fingers to catch balls; Jimmy Young proved the softest-handed, and finshed the night with six grabs and 113 yards. Andy also ran for crucial yards, again using the "slice" play. Joe Turner and Jeremy Kerley combined for three fumbles (AFA jumped on two of 'em, Turner's turnover coming at the AFA 7, stopping a 68 yard TCU drive).

The o-line was flat, allowing three sacks; Newhouse played but did not start for the second week in a row. Jerry Hughes got credit for all of one tackle.

On the bright side, Ross Evans was flawless, hitting 2 points after and 2 field goals. In the end, it was a mirror image of TCU's 2007 three point loss at AFA; this time TCU grounded the Falcons and flew away winners (after a de-icing delay at the airport).

photo: AP

Here're the highlights.

AFA gameday preview

The Frogs begin conference play in chilly Colorado Springs, facing a depleted version of one of the trickiest offenses in the nation, and a much fuller-strength version of a national top defense. Air Force's triple-option ground attack was brought nigh unto perfection last season with Tim Jefferson, Asher Clarke, and a young offensive line. Almost the entire offense returned this year, but seems to be suffering a collective sophomore slump. The Academy's starting QB and TB have both been playing under subpar physical condition, while their best receiver is just beginning to take snaps again in practice, after breaking a leg during the summer. Emotionally, the cadets have got to be reeling from the narrow overtime miss last week against Navy, (and missing their best linebacker, injured in that game) and the brooding threat of facing the MWC's best team this week.

Were that the entire list of bad news about this game, the Frogs' prognosis would be very good indeed. But all is not peaches coming out of Fort Worth, either. Mother Nature seems to have adopted the Academy's mood following the loss to Navy, and has a frigid, windy, wet night in store. One very reliable source says the Frog players were unfocused this week, and practiced very poorly. There are some foes for which poor practices may not bode too ill, but AFA is a team that will exploit mistakes: they're +13 in turnovers so far this season (leading the nation on average average), and have scored five defensive TDs in that span. Offensively, the Frogs simply cannot afford to make mistakes.

Defensively, TCU faces the same imperative. AFA converts a slightly higher percentage of third downs than TCU (44% to 41%), but does so largely on the ground. TCU has the best rush-defense in the nation, but has not played an option-based attack this season. While expected ground leaders Tim Jefferson and Asher Clarke have been playing injured, Savier Stevens (pictured) has picked up some of the slack, and leads the Falcons' so far in ground yards. The Academy's star lineman, Nick Charles, is back on the field.

Is there good news to take some of the "trap" out of this conference opener? Much of it. Most of the defensive players for TCU have prepared for the AFA attack three or four times already. Only Tank Carder has less experience with it, among the starters (Carder has seen it twice). Dalton and the offense take to Colorado Springs the bitter memory of the '07 overtime loss, (the frustration of that loss is evident in the photo from it at left) and a vast store of experience acquired since then. If the Frogs will focus and be assignment sound, they'll keep the ball to themselves. On the flip side, Air Force has had difficulty scoring more than field goals; their offense hasn't found the endzone in its last two games. Little about the TCU defense suggests they'll rediscover it frequently this weekend. Surely they'll run plays TCU hasn't seen, but if the Frogs play to most of their potential, AFA's innovation simply won't matter.

And that's the big if. TCU has shown only glimpses of its potential this season. The Frogs must show a lot more of it today if they're going to keep this game uninteresting, and be able to leverage it into a rise in the polls. The Wimple sees the Frogs pull away after haltime tomorrow, and win unsatisfyingly by about two scores. Otherwise, it may come down to giving Ross Evans a chance to redeem his reputation for prowess at high-pressure field goals. Let's hope Evans (and all of Frogdom) is spared that ordeal. TCU 27, AFA 14.

For further reading: Spitblood; AP; Colorado Springs Gazette; KFC's David May; BleacherReport; SportingNews.

Ready to Launch: Air Force

Progressing to the complete teams-- meaning, teams without glaring weaknesses. No program in the Mountain West has been as successful, but as underheralded, as the Air Force Academy's has been for the last two years. Troy Calhoun took over the helm from Fisher DeBerry, and led a senior-laden team to a bowl in '07. Calhoun put the conference on notice that the bar had risen in Colorado Springs when he repeated the feat in '08, with a freshman-heavy crew. Now those freshmen-- QB Tim Jefferson, RB Asher Clark, FB Jared Tew, OL A. J. Wallerstein, Ss Jon Davis, and Phil Ofili, CBs Anthony Wright and P.J. Adeji-Paul, K Erik Soderberg, WRs Zach Kauth and Jonathan Warzeka-- are sophomores with experience. This year they and their Falcon brethren will put Division I on notice: Navy isn't the only service academy of which to be wary when scheduling. Look for AFA to beat Minnesota, in Minneapolis, as well as Army, and possibly Navy. Air Force's success out of conference, and a strong showing in it, will propel the Falcons into the polls for the first time in years.

Media focus will be on the Falcons' steep ground attack. Jefferson, Clark, and the other skill players will work behind a senior-filled offensive line, led by decorated Nick Charles, pictured. This year's AFA will best last season's-- which was the Falcons' best in several years-- and may meet the production it saw during its 12-win season in 1998. If Jefferson and his receivers get in better synch than last season, the Falcons will rewrite the record book for offense, and may oust one of the conference's Big Three for the second year in three. On that note, however, one notable loss this fall was WR Kyle Halderman, who's in the first month of an anticipated two-month recovery from a broken collarbone.

AFA's defense may not get as much recognition, but should. Calhoun has repeatedly had to tell his defense to back off a little in practice; in other words, they're just too good. The Falcons return only one d-lineman, Ben Garland; but Coach Calhoun has been impressed with new starting DE Rick Ricketts. Ken Lamendola leads a good linebacking corps in Colorado Springs. Star CB Reggie Rembert will miss the first few games while suspended, but Elliot Battle has not disappointed as Rembert's replacement. Anthony Wright- one of Calhoun's super sophomores- returns in strength at the other CB spot. Chris Thomas will be the star of the safeties.

AFA will miss kicker Ben Harrison, and hands kicking duties over to Erik Soderberg.

To sum up: Air Force fields the first complete team in this year's MWC preview lineup. They'll carry the conference's banner high early in the season, and if the machine clicks on all cylinders, will have much to say about which team hoists the banner at the season's end. Playing UNLV and TCU at home makes those two games much more interesting than they might be on the road. BYU, Utah, Navy, and Colorado State on the road is one very tough road schedule. This year's Falcons are up to the challenge, however, and probably will not have a losing road record. Drawing Navy on the road evens the odds AFA will bring the Commander-in-Chief trophy. AFA has potential for a double-digit win total in 2009, if it can stay healthy.

Rating the MWC: the bowlers

Continuing our survey of the Mountain West, today's look is at the Bowlers.

Air Force's inclusion in this list is heavily contingent on the Asher Clark's health. The sophemore tailback was a key cog in last year's Coach-of-the-Year performance from Troy Calhoun's outrageously young Falcons. Clark broke his leg in spring drills, while filling in for eligibility-challenged Tim Jefferson (another key cog) at QB. The Falcons return starters primarily to their offensive line and secondary, but must replace the strong defensive line.

At home, AFA opens with cupcake Nicholls State, and also face SDSU, TCU, Wyoming, Army, and UNLV. How the Falcons hold up against the Horned Frogs and Rebels may define the tenor of the season for the Academy. AFA travels to Minnesota, New Mexico, Navy, Utah, Colorado State, and BYU-- all tough matches. If the whole crew returns (which is a large returning contingent, unlike last year), look for AFA to make waves out of conference, finally beating Navy, and maybe taking down Minnesota in Minneapolis as well. Air Force will be a dangerous roadgame for TCU and Utah as well. Running on all cylinders, the Falcons may reach 8 wins again.

New Mexico lost its coach in the strangest off-season move of the year: Rocky Long fled, at least publically on his own initiative, and wound up coaching the defense in San Diego (see below). The Lobos responded with the best coaching hire of the year, handing the reins to Mike Locksley, Illinois's OC. The new guy capped a complete turnover in staff, and inherited a talented team in Albuquerque that is used to winning. The '08 Lobos missed their first post-season as players last year. Their new offensive and defensive schemes are not the wholesale changes we'll see in Wyoming; but it's much faster-paced stuff, too, and the players have shown growing and transition pains, especially at O-line.

Donovan Porterie (pictured) hopes to quell the very competitive battle brewing at QB, and hope Terrence Brown will fill Rodney Ferguson's ample shoes at tailback. Their once-young O-line will be as much of a strength in '09 as they want to be; inexperience won't be an issue anymore.

New Mexico starts on the road at Texas A&M, whom the Lobos might just beat-- signaling good things for the conference and the Cherry-clad Albuquerqueans. (say that three times fast...) New Mexico also travels to Texas Tech, Wyoming, SDSU, Utah, and TCU. Taking three out of those five would be a new high for the Lobos. At home, UNM faces Tulsa, AFA, New Mexico State, UNLV, BYU, and CSU. New Mexico expects .500 at home, but may best that mark if Tulsa can't reload at QB like they have in the past, or if AFA or BYU slip up. New Mexico's defense may have a heyday against the new quarterbacks they'll face: A&M, Tech, Tulsa, NMState, Utah, and CSU are all breaking in new starters under center. If the Lobos have their act together from the get-go, they may carry the MWC's banner out of conference, and have a say in who takes the big trophy in it.

UNLV is finally ready to cap its rise from utter obscurity with a return to the post season. Mike Sanford's crew now almost numbers 85 on scholarship; they return one of the conference's best and toughest QBs (Omar Clayton is the guy who played through a broken chin in last year's overtime upset at Arizona State), a bevy of terrific wideouts, and good lines. The Rebels gambled on JUCO transfers to help plug their porous secondary, and they appear to have won the bet with Warren Ziegler, and also returners Travis Dixon, Terrence Lee, and Chris Jones. The only gaping hole is at runningback-- when Frank "the Tank" Summers went down against San Diego State last season, the cost was a bowl invitation. The committee of runners who'll try and fill Summers' shoes will work behind a good line and in tandem with a good passing game; if they can't succeed, it'll be their own fault.

UNLV starts the season with three home games: Sacramento State, Oregon State, and Hawaii. Considering Hawaii's drop in performance when away from the enchanted isles, look for the Rebs to take 2 of these 3. Upsetting Oregon State might match the improbability of UNLV's toppling Arizona State last season. The Rebels also face BYU, Utah, CSU, and SDSU at home. Winning three of those four would mean the Rebels have improved more than expected. UNLV travels to Wyoming, Nevada, New Mexico, TCU, and Air Force. Only Wyoming is a probable win for Rebs-- their first conference road win in years. Air Force, if at all weakened by the long season, may prove a second road win.

Bowl eligibity is one upset away for the Rebs this season. The moral of the story: don't fire a coach whose ship is pointed in the right direction just because it ain't sailing as fast as you'd like. (ah hem, SDSU!)

Air Force finishes spring drills

Air Force concluded its spring workouts, with a surprising controversy at quarter-back. Tim Jefferson, the incumb-ent Falcon QB won the MWC Freshman of the Year last season, but struggled with eligibility. He practiced intermittently with the team during the spring. Rising star tailback Asher Clark was penciled into Jefferson's spot, but five practices later tore a meniscus and won't play again until the fall. So who's under center in Colorado Springs? Conner Dietz, a freshman, impressed the coaches enough perhaps to sneak into the #2 spot behind... behind whomever starts at QB for AFA in the fall. The battle for the #1 spot will continue.

Jared Tew remains an intriguing 210-pound possibility at tailback; newcomer Jon Davis has impressed at safety; two kickers are vying to replace the very steady Ryan Harrison; small Rick Ricketts may win a chance to replace an outgoing all-MWC DE.

AFA's toughest losses are at TE, both DEs, and K/P. Coach Calhoun gambled with true freshmen last year, and won big. Those young players (primarily Jefferson and Clark) return-- assuming healing and eligibility-- in strength, and give the Falcons a powerful nucleus to build around. The freshman safety Davis joins returning all-MWC safety Chris Thomas in the secondary, in what will be a strong area for the young team. [update: Reggie Rembert, the Falcons' best cornerback, has been suspended indefinitely, weakening AFA's strong backfield a little] The Wimple expects no dropoff for the Falcons in '09.

MWC lands five bowl berths

Utah will face Alabama in the Sugar Bowl;
TCU will play Boise State in the Poinsettia Bowl;
BYU plays Arizona in the Las Vegas Bowl;
Air Force matches up with Houston (rematch) in the Armed Forces Bowl;
Colorado State plays Fresno State in the New Mexico Bowl.

TCU 44, Air Force 10

The Horned Frogs ate Air Force for lunch on Saturday, topping the Falcons by almost 5 touchdowns. TCU held AFA to 161 yards-- its lowest this season; 113 of those yards came on two big plays.

Air Force likely returns to Amon Carter Stadium for the Armed Forces Bowl on New Year's Eve. TCU likely returns to San Diego for its second Poinsettia Bowl in 3 years; Boise State be TCU's opponent. The Broncos beat TCU in the '03 Fort Worth Bowl.

pre-game press: Frogs prepping for AFA; Frogs motivated for AFA; AFA calls TCU a tough test; FWST Monday notes; Denver Post notes; CGP's press conference FWST, excerpts; Calhoun's comments; CBS preview; Hughes a finalist for the Nagurski, Turner at full speed, Calhoun says TCU is NFL-fast; AFA has lots of Texans; FWST focus on DTs; LeBreton on senior night; AFA run v. TCU D; RockyMtnNews notes.
post-game press: FWST lead; tribute to seniors; FWST notes; RMN; DMN; Spitblood (beware the vulgarity)

photo: M.Walters

Post-Spring MWC Footbal Round-up: the Rebuilders

Two of the MWC's five bowl teams (AFA and UNM) lose so many pieces of their '07 squads that they must measure success in '08 by their record in '09. Add to these the hapless Colorado State Rams, who dwelt with UNLV at the bottom of the conference last year, but have only a new coach to show for it, and SDSU, who'll be breaking in 4 new starters on the O-line and another at QB, and you have the conference's 2008 rebuilders.

• NEW MEXICO-- 2007 was the best year for New Mexico in a generation. Don't expect 2008 to exceed it, however, because the Lobos have to rebuild the offensive line, again. They also must find new go-to receivers, too. The defense ought to be stout, and UNM has talent eventually to get back on track in a big way-- in 2009.
• AIR FORCE-- AFA lost its top 6 rushers to graduation, including the MWC offensive POTY, Chad Hall; it will rely on a brand new QB in '08 as well. In short: Troy Calhoun's coaching challenge begins in earnest. The Academy's rebuilding project will depend on how quickly young and new players can master Air Force's ground attack.
• COLORADO STATE-- Can a new coach reverse the Rams' slide into mediocrity? CSU will be one of the conference's biggest question marks in 2008. The defensive line must be replaced-- not that the old one will be missed-- and so must the quarterback-- who will be missed. The good news is that runningback Kyle Bell returns, and is just the kind of player you can build a team around.
• SAN DIEGO STATE-- The Aztecs sent four players into the NFL via its draft, the most of any MWC team. For the first time in Chuck Long's tenure, however, the cupboard doesn't seem bare. His young team tasted winning last season, but must mature in a hurry to taste it again in '08.

TCU to return to Houston for the Texas Bowl; 5 MWC Teams Go Bowling

http://www.texasbowl.org/-- TCU will square off against the Houston Cougars in the 2007 Texas Bowl . . . This is the Horned Frogs’ third consecutive winning season and their third consecutive bowl appearance. . . TCU head coach Gary Patterson is in his seventh season at the helm and has posted a 60-25 record, including leading the Horned Frogs to a bowl game six times. Patterson has had four 10-win seasons, more then any other coach in TCU history.

The 2007 Texas Bowl will be played on Friday, December 28 at Reliant Stadium at 7:00 p.m. and the game will be televised nationally on NFL Network. DePelchin Children’s Center, Houston’s oldest charitable organization, is the official charitable partner of the Texas Bowl.

[here's the goFrogs.com release]

Five Mountain West teams will play bowl games this year- the most ever. The Mtn.'s preview of the MWC bowls.
BYU will face UCLA (again!) in Las Vegas, Air Force v. California in Fort Worth; Utah v. Navy in San Diego, TCU v. Houston in Houston, and New Mexico v. Nevada in Albequerque.

Air Force 20, TCU 17

How does a team rack up 320 passing yards, throw for 15 first downs, lead almost the whole game, hold its opponent to 17 points in regulation, and lose?

TCU showed the way, turning the ball over four times in the red zone, and generating almost no running game to speak of.

Air Force showed the way, capitalizing on every Frog mistake after halftime, including blocking a field goal that would have given the Frogs the lead with less than two minutes to play.

Notwithstanding the loss, TCU has much to look forward to for the remainder of the season. Aaron Brown and Joe Turner did not play, but Tommy Blake did, and did well, as did the defense generally. Dalton was poised, consistent and productive, and made some terrific throws. The receiving corps had a stellar game, hauling in pass after pass-- Massey, Brock, Moore and Dickerson were as sharp as ever. The team has eight days to heal and prepare for SMU and then the remainder of conference play.

When the Frogs get a playmaker back in the backfield, the Wimple confidently predicts that this offense will to its potential, and win most of its remaining games. And the Fort Worth Bowl (or Armed Forces Bowl, as it's now styled) is already within his scheduled Christmas vacation. Nice.