Sunday, April 26, 2009

Rating the MWC: the contenders

The Big Three will top the MWC, again.

BYU has to replace 4 starters on its offensive line; it will promote 4 experienced linemen, and early indications are that the faithful blue need not fear much dropoff in performance from the new starters. Max Hall, now experienced both in highs and lows and itching to run more, pilots the Cougars' attack again. The defense, newly humbled, appears focused on recovering its conference-dominating form. BYU loses one fantastic skill player-- Austin Collie-- but returns an enviable roster at QB, TE, WR, and all-MWC pass rusher Jan Jorgensen.
The Cougars get one of the conference's most enviable home games: Florida State climbs to Provo in September, and likely will return to Tallahassee with a newfound respect for resurging BYU and the MWC. BYU also hosts CSU, Utah State, TCU, Air Force, and Utah this year, and may beat all of them. TCU and Utah, as usual, will be the Cougars' toughest competition. On the road, BYU opens at Oklahoma (the "neutral site" you'll see on schedules and commentary is a snicker-worthy figleaf), and also travels to Tulane, UNLV, SDSU, Wyoming, and New Mexico. Besides OU, which BYU won't beat, the Cougars must watch out for trap games at UNLV and New Mexico. However, BYU can realistically hope for 11-1, and might feel disappointed again if it wrings only 10 wins from this schedule.

TCU learned to run the spread effectively in 2008, and appears poised to run the it most prolifically in '09. The Frogs' backfield, receiving corps, and offensive line are deep, experienced, and talented, giving Andy Dalton the weapons, room, and time to thrive in his third year at the helm. Look for the Frogs' O to dominate defenses all season.

The D will drop off only as much as Henry Nuitei and Jeremy Coleman don't develop at DT; look for the Frogs to hold the ball slightly less than last year's nation-leading figure (but score more), giving the D more time to show both its strengths and vulnerabilities. TCU travels to Virginia, Clemson, Air Force, BYU, SDSU, and Wyoming; taking sufficient intensity to win on the road has been a weakness for the Frogs. Unless corrected, look for TCU to drop 2 away from Fort Worth-- likely at BYU and Clemson. Coming to Fort Worth this year are Texas State, SMU, Colorado State, UNLV, Utah, and New Mexico. Likely only Utah stands a fighting chance to return home with a win.

The Frogs likely will win out at home, making for another 10-win season. If TCU ups its road focus, however, there's no juggernaut standing in the way of 12-0 in 2009; this season TCU goes as far towards undefeated as it wants to.

Utah has more talent to replace the starters it lost from its eye-popping '08 season than it had after its eye-popping '04 season. Probably this means the Utes finish slightly behind BYU and TCU, but the proof of this pudding will be in the tasting, and if there's anything we learned about Utah last season, it's never to bet against them! So: lesson learned. Utah is clearly a contender in every game this season, but its road trips to Oregon, Fort Worth, and Provo are dangerous for the less experienced team, which the Utes will be each time. The Utes also travel to San Jose State, CSU, and UNLV. If health luck has run in the Rebels' favor, and not also in the Utes', Utah may lose in Las Vegas, as well.

Utah State, Louisville, Air Force, Wyoming, New Mexico, and SDSU must play the Utes in Salt Lake City, and each of them will be the underdog (although watching Kragthorpe's power attack against Utah's new-ish defense will be a treat).

Look for Utah to reach 9 wins-- and do it three years faster than they did after their last BCS bowl. But any let-up from TCU or BYU, and the Utes may sneak into a tie for the conference championship.

Saturday, April 11, 2009

Rating the MWC: the bowlers

Continuing our survey of the Mountain West, today's look is at the Bowlers.

Air Force's inclusion in this list is heavily contingent on the Asher Clark's health. The sophemore tailback was a key cog in last year's Coach-of-the-Year performance from Troy Calhoun's outrageously young Falcons. Clark broke his leg in spring drills, while filling in for eligibility-challenged Tim Jefferson (another key cog) at QB. The Falcons return starters primarily to their offensive line and secondary, but must replace the strong defensive line.

At home, AFA opens with cupcake Nicholls State, and also face SDSU, TCU, Wyoming, Army, and UNLV. How the Falcons hold up against the Horned Frogs and Rebels may define the tenor of the season for the Academy. AFA travels to Minnesota, New Mexico, Navy, Utah, Colorado State, and BYU-- all tough matches. If the whole crew returns (which is a large returning contingent, unlike last year), look for AFA to make waves out of conference, finally beating Navy, and maybe taking down Minnesota in Minneapolis as well. Air Force will be a dangerous roadgame for TCU and Utah as well. Running on all cylinders, the Falcons may reach 8 wins again.

New Mexico lost its coach in the strangest off-season move of the year: Rocky Long fled, at least publically on his own initiative, and wound up coaching the defense in San Diego (see below). The Lobos responded with the best coaching hire of the year, handing the reins to Mike Locksley, Illinois's OC. The new guy capped a complete turnover in staff, and inherited a talented team in Albuquerque that is used to winning. The '08 Lobos missed their first post-season as players last year. Their new offensive and defensive schemes are not the wholesale changes we'll see in Wyoming; but it's much faster-paced stuff, too, and the players have shown growing and transition pains, especially at O-line.

Donovan Porterie (pictured) hopes to quell the very competitive battle brewing at QB, and hope Terrence Brown will fill Rodney Ferguson's ample shoes at tailback. Their once-young O-line will be as much of a strength in '09 as they want to be; inexperience won't be an issue anymore.

New Mexico starts on the road at Texas A&M, whom the Lobos might just beat-- signaling good things for the conference and the Cherry-clad Albuquerqueans. (say that three times fast...) New Mexico also travels to Texas Tech, Wyoming, SDSU, Utah, and TCU. Taking three out of those five would be a new high for the Lobos. At home, UNM faces Tulsa, AFA, New Mexico State, UNLV, BYU, and CSU. New Mexico expects .500 at home, but may best that mark if Tulsa can't reload at QB like they have in the past, or if AFA or BYU slip up. New Mexico's defense may have a heyday against the new quarterbacks they'll face: A&M, Tech, Tulsa, NMState, Utah, and CSU are all breaking in new starters under center. If the Lobos have their act together from the get-go, they may carry the MWC's banner out of conference, and have a say in who takes the big trophy in it.

UNLV is finally ready to cap its rise from utter obscurity with a return to the post season. Mike Sanford's crew now almost numbers 85 on scholarship; they return one of the conference's best and toughest QBs (Omar Clayton is the guy who played through a broken chin in last year's overtime upset at Arizona State), a bevy of terrific wideouts, and good lines. The Rebels gambled on JUCO transfers to help plug their porous secondary, and they appear to have won the bet with Warren Ziegler, and also returners Travis Dixon, Terrence Lee, and Chris Jones. The only gaping hole is at runningback-- when Frank "the Tank" Summers went down against San Diego State last season, the cost was a bowl invitation. The committee of runners who'll try and fill Summers' shoes will work behind a good line and in tandem with a good passing game; if they can't succeed, it'll be their own fault.

UNLV starts the season with three home games: Sacramento State, Oregon State, and Hawaii. Considering Hawaii's drop in performance when away from the enchanted isles, look for the Rebs to take 2 of these 3. Upsetting Oregon State might match the improbability of UNLV's toppling Arizona State last season. The Rebels also face BYU, Utah, CSU, and SDSU at home. Winning three of those four would mean the Rebels have improved more than expected. UNLV travels to Wyoming, Nevada, New Mexico, TCU, and Air Force. Only Wyoming is a probable win for Rebs-- their first conference road win in years. Air Force, if at all weakened by the long season, may prove a second road win.

Bowl eligibity is one upset away for the Rebs this season. The moral of the story: don't fire a coach whose ship is pointed in the right direction just because it ain't sailing as fast as you'd like. (ah hem, SDSU!)

Friday, April 10, 2009

Rating the MWC post-spring: the rebuilders

The whistles go silent; the pads are shelved; the off-season enters its interminable summer dawdle... What's the conference pecking order look like? As usual, the Mountain West looks like layered cake, with these layers: the contenders, the bowlers, and the rebuilders. In these next few posts, the Wimple will cast an eye on each layer of the cake.

Today: the rebuilders.

Colorado State, Wyoming, and San Diego State share the dubious honor of low expectations, but for totally different reasons.

The Cowboys used power running to lose consistently last year-- and lost their backfield to the graduation of Devin Moore and Wynel Selden. With them went the coach, and in their place blew in Joe Christensen, the spread-guru from Missouri. Despite the incessently optimistic spring chatter out of Laramie, there is exactly a 100% chance the Cowboys are going to spend a season in the wilderness, learning this newfangled high-tempo pass-happy offense. Wyoming is filled with power running players, and even though Karten Sween (pictured) ran a spread in high school, he's going to work behind a subpar o-line, with receivers who, let's face it, signed with a power running school.

The Cowboys might beat Weber State in Laramie, but after that the home slate is Texas (huh?), UNLV, New Mexico, BYU, and TCU. While it's true UNLV hasn't won a conference roadie in... forever, look for Wyoming to end that streak. New Mexico, BYU, and TCU look much stronger than the 'Boys, even on the road. On the road, Wyoming faces Colorado, Florida Atlantic, Air Force, Utah, San Diego State, and Colorado State. Maybe the boys in brown 'n yellow will find a way to stifle Florida Atlantic, SDSU, or Colorado State, but the Wimple thinks chances are slim. FAU returns one of the nation's most prolific quarterbacks in '09; SDSU brings back nearly nothing but experience, and Colorado State, for all its troubles (see below), has a strong offensive line that may keep Wyoming's new spread off the field. Air Force and Utah will make quick work of the Cowboys. Anything better than 2-10 will be a remarkably quick turnaround by what will have become the hottest coach in the country.

The good news: Christensen signed a pretty good recruiting class, and has the Cowboys working tougher than they were working under Joe Glenn. We won't look for fruit in this quest for respectibility until at least 2010. Any buds before then will be welcome surprises.

Colorado State, on the other hand, is not changing schemes from night to day this offseason; it's changing personel night to day. Steve Fairchild rode a terrific group of senior skill players to a surprising bowl bid to in Albuquerque last season, and an equally surprising upset over Fresno State, where Gartrell Johnson set the all-time bowl rushing record. And then graduated. With him strolled out of eligibility the Rams' two QBs, a terrific LB, and the best CSU TE of the decade, Kory Sperry. Add a year's suspension for the Rams' other great LB, another QB quitting, and suddenly the skill position cupboard in Fort Collins looks terribly bare. The spring chatter has been more honest than the coverage of the Rams' rival, featuring sinking expectations.

The Rams share Weber State and a trip to Colorado OOC with Wyoming, and likely will beat only Weber State, as well. At home, CSU also sees Nevada, Utah, SDSU, Air Force, and Wyoming. The Wimple sees the Rams beating Wyoming, and if Steve Fairchild can find a quarterback and runningback between now and September, maybe CSU bests SDSU as well. After what will be a humiliating trip to Boulder, CSU travels to BYU, Idaho, TCU, UNLV, and New Mexico. The Rams may not even score points except against hapless Idaho, whom CSU may beat. If CSU can squeeze four wins out of this schedule, it will have gotten a jump-start on what may be a solid '10 team.

The good news: CSU returns 4 starters up front, including light-out tackle Shelley Smith (pictured). These big guys will give the new backfield room and holes to work with much of the time. But don't expect the Rams to muscle their way back into bowl eligibility this season.

San Diego State hasn't been good in... in forever. Despite a season-killing plethora of injuries last year, it looked like the Aztecs might be headed for a different layer of the MWC cake, for a change. But then it fired Chuck Long, who had turned the team's trajectory back towards winning, and brought in Brady Hoke (pictured). Although the Wimple thinks firing Long was a bad idea, it can hardly be argued that hiring Hoke was equally as bad. The midwesterner promptly hired two great coordinators, and has begun installing a faster tempo offense, and completely different defense.

So, what do the Aztecs have to look forward to in 2009? They return the longest list of returning starters in the conference. Many of those starters were fill-ins for the terribly injury-plagued Aztecs last year. If Hoke & Co. can skirt the injury bug this season, they may command one of the conference's most surprising offenses; the defense is learning an entirely new scheme-- Rocky Long's high-risk high-reward 3-3-5, with the "Lobo" back recast as the "Aztec." Which means exactly what, you ask? Probably more of the same in San Diego, for another interminable year.

There is reason for (highly guarded) hopes, however: SDSU's OOC slate could be shockingly soft: @Ucla, Southern Utah, @Idaho, and New Mexico State. BYU, New Mexico, TCU, and Wyoming also come to San Diego; the Wimple expects the Aztecs to beat only Wyoming at home in conference. SDSU travels to UCLA, Idaho, Air Force, Colorado State, Utah, and UNLV. .500 on the road may happen, and suddenly the Aztecs may be one upset away from a bowl. Or, in its accustomed drill, SDSU may choke on Hoke's new scheme, and join the hapless Rams and Cowboys at the conference bottom. The Wimple sees little clue which way their chips will fall this season.

San Diego State- post-spring

It's not back to square one with the new coaching staff in San Diego, but Brady Hoke has set a more athletic starting point for his players, and the team is scrambling to catch up. Brady Hoke is pushing the Aztecs to practice at game speed.

Nick Sandford and Martrell Fantroy are battling to be the starting "Aztec" back-- the hybrid safety/linebacker that Brian Urlacher made famous under Rockly Long's tutelege at New Mexico. Long is SDSU's new DC. Long's 3-3-5 is linebacker friendly, and senior LB Luke Laolagi and junior Andrew Preston are returning starters.

The Aztecs installed over 85 percent of the schemes in the spring, and pushed the offense around mercilessly, doing so. Tommie Draheim is pushing Trask Iosefa at center; Jonathan Soto and B.J. Williams return as DEs; several others are competing for NT and end. Among the many Aztecs who missed most of '08 with injuries is junior RB Davon Brown, who joins returners Attiyah Henderson and Brandon Sullivan, and newcomers Anthony Miller and Ronnie Hillman in competition to liven SDSU's running game in '09. That said, neither Brown, Henderson, or Sullivan has nailed down the starting spot. Brown impressed in the team's first scrimmage, (and second, too) as did junior TE Alston Umuolo. Senior WR Roberto Wallace impressed in the second scrimmage, in which 15 players recorded tackles for losses.

In the Aztecs' spring game, seniors DeMarco Sampson and Jon Toledo looked as good as junior all-MWC receiver Vincent Brown; the winners ate steak afterwards, the losers: hotdogs ($). Ryan Lindley finished 18-of-37 for 235 yards and a touchdown, directing the Black squad to victory and the steak dinner. Neither team's ground game impressed.

SMU - post spring

The Ponies are into their second year, and into their third million dollars, of The Revival-- or at least they hope so. To that end, it looks like the offense is functioning better than it was a year ago; (all the stories are in this link except those linked to below). The outlook for their awful defense isn't so rosy: the Mustangs are trying on an Estonian world-champ discus thrower at DE for size, and may move their best wide-out (Emmanual Sanders) to cornerback. Justin Willis, now a WR, broke an ankle and will be out at least until fall. Bo Levi Mitchell says his head isn't swimming with trying to learn the plays, like it was last year. The defense, especially the secondary, looks better some of the time, and worse others.

In the spring game, the defense looked much sharper than it has in years, especially in the secondary. June Jones was most pleased with the number of interceptions thrown-- zero-- and says if his QBs throw few interceptions, they'll win a lot of games. Bradley Haynes may be BLM's go-to receiver in '10.

NFL drafts 16 from MWC

16 players from the MWC were selected in the '09 NFL draft, nearly matching the conference-high mark of 17, set in 2005 (including then C-USA member TCU's picks from that year).

TCU led with five: LB Jason Phillips (5th, Ravens), LB Robert Henson (6th, Redskins), S Stephen Hodge (6th, Cowboys), RB Aaron Brown (6th, Lions), and C Blake Schlueter (7th, Broncos).
Utah had four: DE Paul Kruger (2nd, Ravens), CB Sean Smith (2nd, Dolphins), CB Brice McCain (6th, Texans) and TE/WR Freddie Brown (7th, Bengals).
From BYU: WR Austin Collie (4th, Colts) and RB Fui Vakapuna (6th, Bengals);
New Mexico: CB Glover Quin (4th, Texans) and DB DeAndre Wright (6th, Giants).
RB Gartrell Johnson (4th, Chargers) from Colorado State, OG Lance Louis from SDSU (7th, Bears), and RB Frank Summers from UNLV (5th, Steelers) finish the list.

NFL teams drafted seven MWC players in '08, nine in '07, twelve in '06, seventeen in '05, eight in '04.

By conference: SEC: 37, ACC: 33, Pac 10: 32, Big 10: 28, Big 12: 28, Big East: 27, MWC: 16, C-USA: 10, WAC: 10, MAC: at least 2, SunBelt: 2.

Wednesday, April 8, 2009

Colorado State - post spring

The rebuilding that Steve Fairchild signed on to accomplish has gotten underway in Fort Collins in earnest. Few MWC teams lose more and more central personel this offseason than Colorado State. The Rams return multiple starters at O-line and in the secondary, but that's about it. Center Tim Walter feels better than they did a year ago, even if CSU has only two QBs with which to run drills, and is rebuilding its defense, and won't have LB Ricky Brewer in '09 to help, as well as its entire skill-set on offense. The Rams return only 2 starters in the front 7, but bring 4 back in the secondary. SMQ says .500 would be a good year in Fort Collins; the Wimple agrees.

JUCO transfer Leonard Mason (pictured) will try his hand at filling Gartrell Johnson's enormous shoes in the backfield, as will senior John Mosure and Alex Square; Mason got kicked out of one practice for failing to execute assignments, giving Derek Good and Jonathan Gaye snaps to show their stuff on. The Rams hope to get better production from Sevaro Johnson and Sam Stewart, both JUCO transfer DTs with a year in D1 now under their belts. Elija-Blu Smith, normally a CB who played at safety last season, is taking snaps at both position this spring.

Walk-on Rams getting significant looks in practice: James Skelton, RsFr linebacker; RsFr wide receiver Alex Johnson; sophomore RB Derek Good; and junior WR Tyson Liggett. Receiver is a bright spot for CSU-- the Rams return every wideout who caught a pass last season, and have moved 6'4" T.J. Borcky from quarterback to receiver, where's he's practiced with the first team. That said, the QB and WR play this spring has disappointed Coach Fairchild. Smart linebacker play may have something to do with that-- even though CSU's two best LBs from '08 do not play this season. Former DT Ty Whittier has moved to be a big DE-- he's 6'5", 270 lbs. The Rams are practicing a "wildcat" formation. Even the heavens seem arrayed against the Rams, cancelling one practice and the spring game.

Wyoming - post spring

Wyoming is attempting the most thorough change of personality the conference has seen in years, going from a ground-first defense-heavy attack to a high-tempo pass-happy out-score-'em style. Graham Watson, who watched Christensen install the same offense at Missouri, says the project is progressing, but hints that it's take a few years-- just like it did in Missouri. Even the coaches are having difficulty keeping up. 17 Cowboys have been out at one time with injuries, (and 17 missed the spring game, leaving only 51 on the roster, forcing Coach Joe to bring in some graduating seniors to fill spots) still unused to the vigor Christensen expects from his team.

Wyoming returns highly experienced Brian Hendricks in the place of graduated LBs; QBs Karsten Sween, Dax Crum, and Adam Barry are all fighting to start; look for Barry to change positions; Sween ended spring atop the depth chart. All QBs have been open for sacks, but Karsten Sween loves the new scheme because he ran something like it in high school; TE Orlando Arnold looks forward to catching balls; his brethren on offense are getting the swing of things and even getting the best of the Wyoming D some of the time. The D doesn't have to re-learn every facet of its game, even if it is working out harder than it ever has. Senior Russ Arnold takes over at center; coach Mike Fanoga has helped bring several Polynesian players to Laramie; freshman corner Tashaun Gipson has impressed. Brandon Stewart, who was a specialty speed back in '08, looks to figure more prominently in the Cowboys' spread option. Junior Darious Terry, and sophomores James Davis, and James Carraway (second feature on the trio) will vie to replace seniors Wynel Seldona and Devin Moore, Wyoming's only good offensive news in '08. Terry loves the new spread, and is running a wildcat formation from it sometimes.
In the second half of the Cowboys' third scrimmage, the offense began to click; one particularly bright spot in the inter-squad game was the kicker: Jake Scott was 5-5. The offense was so underwhelming in the spring game, however, that the secondary and running game looked good; Karsten Sween did finish it off with a long TD drive, however.

Virginia - post spring

Virginia's new OC Greg Brandon, formerly the head coach at Bowling Green, is installing the spread, toying with Wild Frog (which they call "hoo cat") formation, with both Vic Hall (Al Groh says, "In Vic We Trust") and Jameel Sewell lining up for the offense, much like Jeremy Kerley and Andy Dalton. Sewell is back after a year's suspension. The Cavs have welcomed back their best cornerback, Chris Cook, after a year's eviction from the team. Sophemore Landon Bradley looks to replace top draftee Eugene Monroe at left tackle. The four other starters on the line are all returning, lead by RT Will Barker. Mikell Simpson looks to return in high-yardarge form, after a year out healing a broken collar bone.

New Mexico - post spring

New Mexico may be surprisingly strong; they replaced every single coach in the off-season, but return strong lines, experienced QBs, and talent to replace Rodney Ferguson- perhaps the best Lobo rusher in the modern era. The Lobos' Locksley isn't naming any starters while teaching his players yet another offensives system, and are looking for a few good men to fill DeAndre Wright and Grover Quinn's shoes in the secondary, as well as Jermaine Queen at WR.

Defense looks sharp, intercepting the QBs; practice is less about hard hitting than it is about being in the right place; Gruner and Smith impress in the QB battle, though Donovan Porterie looks like the starter going in to fall. Big DT Peter Gardner impresses on the line. Gruner and RB Terrence Brown (pictured) got the best of the D in a scrimmage; Porterie isn't trailing in the QB battle; Donovan Porterie has regained a comfort zone after his rehab, while WR Roland Bruno and PK James Aho are making plays consistently. Safeties Bubba Forrest (really!) and Mica Williams have impressed.

DT Ahraya Crespin and Donovan Porterie shone in the spring game; Terrence Brown was on crutches.

Utah - post spring

Utah didn't lose quite as much of its BCS-team the year after the Sugar Bowl as it did the year after the Fiesta Bowl. But the Utes are still trying to plug holes and fill some big shoes: the biggest being graduating QB Brian Johnson's, PK Louie Sakoda's, and DE Paul Kruger's.

Whittingham tries 5:30AM practice to keep the '09 Utes' minds off their '08 success; The QB battle likely isn't big enough for RSFr DeVonte Christopher as much-touted JUCO transfer Terrance Cain and returning QB Corbin Louks appear to have taken the battle to themselves. R.J. Sanford and Brandon Burton hope to replace the Utes' tremendous CBs; Matt Asiata doesn't expect to split carries with anyone in '09; one starter the Utes didn't lose to graduation is LB Stevenson Sylvester. Whittingham hopes hitting will grow up some young players. One younger player who is emerging is WR Aiona Key; another is featherweight true freshman QB Jordan Wynn, who's good work in the high-scoring spring game may keep the Utes' QB battle a three-way fight into fall.

After the Utes' second scrimmage, the offense still looks shaky, and Louks and Cain remain "about even" (Whittingham's estimation). None of the Utes' kickers are anywhere near Louie Sakoda's reliability, however.

BYU - post spring

The Cougars managed a remarkable feat in 2008: they felt bad about winning ten games. They lost their biggest three, however, hence the disappointment. Much of the '08 crew returns to attempt to reclaim conference-smashing form in 2009. Its focus is on growing 4 new starters on the o-line, tightening up the defense, finding a go-to receiver, and definitely not on coining the perfect pithy phrase to memorialize the season.

Defense outshone offense in first scrimmage; McCay Jacobson was kept from contact during spring drills, allowing the team to focus on developing Luke Ashworth and O'Neill Chambers; Unga's healthier, likes the new, lower expecations; J.J. DiLuigi hopes to join Unga in what may become a very crowded and talented BYU backfield. LB Terrence Hooks hopes to be the senior star of BYU's linebackers this season; so is Jordan Pendleton. Max Hall says the defense is better, and that the o-line is great (only Matt Reynolds, pictured, returns) and that he's more concerned with their health than their inexperience. But Hall also says he's open to running more. LB Vic S'oto refractured his foot, and touted JUCO Bernard Afutiti finally began practicing at DE. [update: Afutiti decided to serve an LDS mission instead.]
Coach Bronco Mendenhall says the team is hungry and competitive like it was in 2006; Unga loves his new O-line; on the other side of the ball, Jan Jorgensen and Matt Bauman are on the Lott Trophy watch list.

UNLV - post spring

UNLV appears finally to have enough depth and talent across the field to contend in every game this season. Its most pressing need is replacing Frank "The Tank" Summers; when Summers went down at San Diego in the last game of 2008, the Rebels' hopes for a bowl bid went with him. In 2009, UNLV returns 28 players who have started at least one game-- the most in the MWC. Look for this unusual experience and depth in Las Vegas, especially in the trenches, to push UNLV into the post-season.

Sophomore Phillip Payne (pictured) has gained some muscle, but not lost a step; Ryan Wolfe must now lead the Rebels' receiving corps, now that Casey Flair has graduated; Warren Ziegler (pictured), a JUCO-transfer at safety, appears to be meeting the high expectations that accompanied his early enrollment at UNLV; Ziegler and returning DB Will Chandler appear to have an edge on a starting spot going into fall; cornerback Quinton Pointer hopes to play at 100% next year; massive Samoan DE Issako Aaitui's football smarts have caught up with his size; his fellow lineman DT Malo Taumua is also impressing, wearing the day's best black jersey four times. LB looks to be a strong position for UNLV again; youth and inexperience are no longer problems on the Rebel o-line; former QBs Travis Dixon and Chris Jones are doing well as safeties. UNLV returns four starters to the O-line, and the newbie, RsFr Sean Tesoro, has drawn high praise. Coach Sanford says the 1st team defense and offensive line have improved, but the 2s need to improve, and the Rebs are still looking for a go-to runningback and punter.

In the Rebs' spring game, Mike Clausen outshone Omar Clayton, but hasn't ousted Clayton from the starting spot. JUCO transfers Kenny Brown and Warren Ziegler corralled Phillip Payne; senior Chris Brogdon and sophomore C.J. Cox lead at tailback, awaiting incoming freshman Bradley Randle. Sanford called this the Rebs' best spring ever, and listed likely battles in fall drills.

Clemson - post spring

Young WR Brandon Ford has impressed; Da'Quan Bowers, the Tigers' best DE, is monstrous. Kyle Parker is pressing Willy Korn for first-team snaps at QB; in the spring game, Parker looked better than Korn, who threw two ints. Speaking of youngsters, early enrolled freshman Andre Ellington is drawing oohs and aahs as C.J. Spiller's backup at RB. The offense is clicking; Clemson released its spring-game depth charts a few days early, and publically, and the press printed 'em. What's that, you ask? Press support for the local team? No wonder kids love it there...

Tuesday, April 7, 2009

Air Force finishes spring drills

Air Force concluded its spring workouts, with a surprising controversy at quarter-back. Tim Jefferson, the incumb-ent Falcon QB won the MWC Freshman of the Year last season, but struggled with eligibility. He practiced intermittently with the team during the spring. Rising star tailback Asher Clark was penciled into Jefferson's spot, but five practices later tore a meniscus and won't play again until the fall. So who's under center in Colorado Springs? Conner Dietz, a freshman, impressed the coaches enough perhaps to sneak into the #2 spot behind... behind whomever starts at QB for AFA in the fall. The battle for the #1 spot will continue.

Jared Tew remains an intriguing 210-pound possibility at tailback; newcomer Jon Davis has impressed at safety; two kickers are vying to replace the very steady Ryan Harrison; small Rick Ricketts may win a chance to replace an outgoing all-MWC DE.

AFA's toughest losses are at TE, both DEs, and K/P. Coach Calhoun gambled with true freshmen last year, and won big. Those young players (primarily Jefferson and Clark) return-- assuming healing and eligibility-- in strength, and give the Falcons a powerful nucleus to build around. The freshman safety Davis joins returning all-MWC safety Chris Thomas in the secondary, in what will be a strong area for the young team. [update: Reggie Rembert, the Falcons' best cornerback, has been suspended indefinitely, weakening AFA's strong backfield a little] The Wimple expects no dropoff for the Falcons in '09.

Saturday, April 4, 2009

TCU post-spring

TCU is the first MWC team to finish spring drills. Has it answered any spring questions?

The personnel along the lines was the Wimple's biggest question, and the apparent answers are interesting. The value of experience is showing: the Braylon Broughton and Jeremy Coleman, often called the two most talented linemen on the team, didn't make the first team this spring. The first-team defensive line seems set: Jerry Hughes, Kelly Griffin, Cory Grant, and Wayne Daniels; the second team is Clarence Leatch, Henry Nuitei, Jeremy Coleman, and Braylon Broughton. All of these linemen are juniors but Hughes (senior) and Broughton (sophemore). The Wimple expects Leatch and Nuitei to push their respective ones hardest.

The DTs do not seem quite as stout as Cody Moore and James Vess were; hopefully the graduates' replacements will grow more overpowering this summer and fall. That said, the first team line is better than the half-surprised first-team line that gave up too many plays in 2007. Griffin, much grown and seasoned, will have started in both squads.

The offensive lines are also interesting. Left to right, the first-team line appears to be Marshall Newhouse, Kyle Dooley/Blaise Foltz, Jake Kirkpatrick, Zach Roth/Josh Vernon, Marcus Cannon. That's a highly mixed group of youth and experience. Newhouse is the only senior of the five. One thing's clear: the Frogs are deep, big, and have a lot of young players in tight competition for starting and playing minutes up front.

The Frogs' second pressing question coming out of the bowl season was who would (attempt to) replace Jason Phillips. Henson's successor was clear: it's going to be senior Daryl Washington, who has been phenomenal. Phillips' successor appears to be Tank Carder, the sophemore. Tank has risen to the challenge, and has turned heads. And smashed heads. He's fast, physical, and knows where to be.

Behind Carder and Washington are a talented, but young, group of future Frog stars. Greg Burks, baby Brock (the Wimple calls him that only while anonymous!), Kris Gardner, and three other incoming all of whom the Wimple expects to redshirt.

In the backfield, Ed Wesley appears as good as advertised. Chris Smith has turned in his second stellar spring. The Wimple can only guess if it'll result is more PT this fall than it did last. It appears the Frogs will boast three of the best freshmen runningbacks on their roster come August-- Dwight Smith apparently is likely to enroll, joining Matthew Tucker and Waymon James in the nation's best class of tailbacks this fall. With Turner returning, Smith, Jai Cavness, Jercell Fort, and Wesley booming, the Wimple hopes all three of the new guys will redshirt.

The backup QBs appear competent-- Yogi Gallegos looked like the sharpest passer in the spring game, but he turned his knee and will certainly be out of action for a bit-- hopefully not into August, but don't expect updates from tight-lipped TCU. Casey Pachall started like a true freshmen only months out of high school, (which is exactly what he was) and ended the spring looking much more competent and confident. He's tall and quick, as advertized, and looks good in purple. [update: snide remarks above notwithstanding, CGP says publically that Yogi's injury wasn't as bad as feared, and that he should be back in action by June 1. CGP also says (and this surprises no one) that if Yogi's in playing form by Sep 5, Pachall will redshirt.

Rafael Priest and Nick Sanders didn't play the spring game, giving room to see Greg McCoy and Jason Teague look good at corner. Ibiloye is making plays at safety now.

The returning starters looked great. Dalton is the master; Hughes is unblockable; Washington is everywhere; Sir Demarco Bledsoe (not a returning starter, but you wouldn't know it) will be all-MWC, at least; Tejay Johnson, Marshall Newhouse, Jimmy Young, Antoine Hicks, Alonzo Adams... all look ready for great seasons.

The Frogs will re-break all the offensive records they broke last year, with one exception: time of possession. They'll throw too many touchdown passes, and be too much softer in the middle of the D-line to best that mark.

Spring Game


The Frogs took to the field ones-on-ones, twos-on-twos, for the spring game today. Dalton and Jackson alternated at QB for the first team; Gallegos and Pachall for the second team. There was a noticable dropoff in offensive coordination on the second team, including several bad snaps. Gallegos dove after one of them, and twisted his knee in the melee, injuring it. Pachall showed his speed more than once, and Dalton hid the ball on some play action runs very well. Both overthrew receivers more than once. Gallegos looked crispest passing.



The Frogs did not show the offensive variety they've exhibited to much smaller audiences in practices; there was lots of running up the gut-- which is noticably softer than when Cody Moore and James Vess manned the interior defensive line. Chris Smith, Ed Wesley, and Jercell Fort each had great runs.

Daryl Washington, Tank Carder, Sir Demarco Bledsoe, Tejay Johnson, Jerry Hughes, and Clarence Leatch were explosive on defense.

Here's Jeremiah's take ($).