Why an 8-team playoff is the best kind

Almost a year ago, the Wimple endorsed an eight-team playoff for the top eight ranked conference champions in D-1A, instead of a plus-one or 12- or 16-team playoff. The reasoning for preferring this system over any others remains as prescient today as it was when Kansas and Missouri were hot topics:

Even though Kansas and Missouri wouldn't have made it into this proposed playoff, the argument against their inclusion is strong: they didn't win their conference! West Virginia would have made the cut.

In a world with this kind of playoff (which is, admittedly, a fantasy of the highest order) the BCS/non-BCS distinction would lose most of its meaning, because in most years two of the five non-BCS conferences would suddenly have a guaranteed place at the table. This would re-incentivise geographically-defined conferences, because all conferences would be created (nearly) equal in the post-season.

On-the-field performance is the only real metric we have for to measure sports teams. Allowing only conference champions to participate in a playoff would enthrone on-the-field performance as the ultimate arbiter between post-season haves and have-nots. Do you want a berth in CFB's playoff? Win your conference.

Is your conference too hard? I think of Texas Tech, Connecticut, Oregon State, Missouri, Ole Miss, Georgia, Clemson... These are just some of many teams from privileged conferences that sniff occasionally at a title crown, but never seem to get themselves together enough to snatch it away from the entrenched elites in their respective conferences. What hope for them in a champions-only playoff?

There's an easy answer; so easy it's reducible to one word. Move.

The SunBelt would faint with joy to include Mississippi State and Clemson; Oregon State to the WAC? Texas Tech to the Mountain West (not necessarily a downward move for the Red Raiders...)? Why not? An evening-out of the D-1A conferences would be the best thing that could possibly happen to college football, and allowing only conference champions into an eight-team playoff would be the best way to prompt that change.

Besides: if winning the conference is the ticket to the playoff, there's no devaulation of the regular season to worry about. Conference championship games would be even more important, and best of all, the BCS crystal trophy would actually mean that awful line that's said about it when given: from the eleven BCS conferences...

TCU v. Boise, in the stats

Statistically, Boise State is one very impressive football team. A few particulars:

This team is very young. Only one senior is listed as starting on the team's official depth chart: all-American punt returner and CB Kyle Wilson. (Boise listed 13 in its '08 Poinsettia guide.) Only two freshmen are starters: WR Kirby Moore, and LB J.C. Percy. Compare TCU: six starting seniors: LT Marshall Newhouse, TB Joe Turner, DE Jerry Hughes, LB Daryl Washington, and CBs Nick Sanders and Raphael Priest; one starting freshman: TB Matthew Tucker.

Young, however, does not mean inexperienced. Fully 18 starters played TCU in last year's bowlgame. Four were starting o-linemen last season, as were three starting d-linemen. That continuity up front has really paid off for Boise's offense, which ranks first nationally in sacks allowed (improving four spots) and has the nation's 20th best rushing attack (a 19-place improvement). The Bronocs accomplished this facing an average 88th best rush defense. (All stats available here.) Compare TCU: fifth in sacks allowed and rushing offense, facing an average 74th best rush defense.

Boise broke in three new starting wideouts, and fell from the 12th best passing offense to the 30th best, nationally. The sum total of these changes in the way the team produces yards and points has been a net gain for the broncos, however: Boise has added over four points to its per-game average, while facing an average 75th best pass defenses. Compare TCU: 67th best passing offense, fourth best scoring offense, facing an average 57th best pass defense.

Last year's defensive front was probably better, registering tenth best in sacks made and 15th best rushing defense. In '09, the returner-heavy front fell to 40th best rushing defense, and 72nd in sacks made, while facing an average 58th best rushing attacks. Behind the four-man defensive front on the blue turf are two linebackers and five defensive backs, like TCU uses. Both corners and two safeties are returning starters, as is one of the linebackers. The bottom line: Boise fell from third to 16th best in scoring defense. Compare TCU: third in rushing D, sixth in scoring D, 21st in sacks made, facing an average 75th best rushing offense.

All of these returners take a back seat in accolades, however, to their second-year starting sophomore quarterback, Kellen Moore, who leads the nation in efficiency, while facing an average 75th best pass defense. His efforts, behind a very good line has been is the key to the Bronco's nation-leading average of over 44 points per game. Moore has garnered several spots on all-American team this season. That line is surprisingly small-- averaging just over 285 lbs. Compare TCU: starting beefeaters average 32 pounds heavier, Andy Dalton is fourth in efficiency, facing an average 57th best pass defense; TCU is fourth in scoring offense at almost 41 points per game.

So what's the takeaway? TCU's offensive production is just a whisker behind Boise's, but in the face of significantly stiffer defenses, while the Bronco's defense lags slightly behind TCU's, in the face of significantly better offenses. Or, in order words, one must concede the Fiesta Bowl's point: these teams are pretty well matched.

r-e-s-p-e-c-t look like this:

An article from ESPN's Brad Edwards gives some specifics:
"With its highest-ranked team being fourth this season (TCU) and sixth last season (Utah), the league has performed better in this area than every other conference but the SEC and Big 12. And with three teams being ranked in the final Top 25 each of the two seasons, the Mountain West is as good as the ACC and better than the Big East"

Numbers: BCS payouts to non-cartel conferences

In their revolting glory, here are the revenue rules for the cartel (from page 13 of the BCS Media Guide, emphases added):

A total of approximately $1.8 million will be paid to ... Division I-AA... Also, independent institutions Army and Navy each will receive $100,000 for making their teams available to play in BCS games if selected.

Nine percent of the net revenues from the arrangement, which was approximately $9.6 million in 2008-09, is guaranteed in aggregate to Conference USA, the Mid- American, Mountain West, Sun Belt, and Western Athletic Conferences for their participation in the arrangement. When a team from one of those five conferences plays in a BCS bowl game, the conferences will receive an additional nine percent of net revenues. When more than one team from those conferences play in the BCS bowl games, those conferences will receive an additional $4.5 million for each additional team.

Notre Dame is guaranteed 1/66th of the net revenues after expenses, or approximately $1.3 million. ... The share to each conference with an annual automatic berth in the BCS ... is approximately $18.3 million. When a second team from one of those conferences qualifies to play in one of the games, that conference will receive an additional $4.5 million.

In a nutshell, that says the five cartel-outsider conference are treated as one conference, and in years without a BCS buster, they together share about half of what a single cartel conference gets. In one-buster years, they share about two thirds of a single cartel conference's share.

The wrinkle in this year's BCS money drama is Boise State, which is the second non-cartel team to win a BCS berth-- a new thing under the (Glendale) sun. Using last season's revenue numbers, that translates into 18% + $4.5 million to be split among the five non-cartel conferences, or 21.03% of the net cartel revenue, or $31.169 million. That's about one and one-sixth of a single BCS conference's share of the pile.

The Wimple does not know how the five non-cartel conferences share that dough.

Poinsettia II (a.k.a. '10 Fiesta)

Lately the Wimple has eschewed link lists, but conveying the consensus is important now.
Here's SI's Cory McCartney, ESPN's Gene Wojciechowski, Yahoo's Matt Hinton and Holly Anderson (who quotes others), BCSGuru's guru, CFN's Fiutak & Cirminiello, CBS's Dennis Dodd, the Washington Post's John Feinstein, the Trentonian's Matthew Osborne, RealClearSports's Matthew Sanderson, all saying TCU-Boise is a slap in their respective faces. Thank you very much, BCS. You've managed to relegate the outsiders to the outside, even when they pluck off two berths in your playpen. And now you'll pay them both half the announced payout, and send them home without giving either one of them a chance to prove itself on your grand stage.

Shame on you. Really.

With contrary sentiments, here's SI's Stewart Mandel; and, um... anybody else? A Phoenix newspaper likes the matchup-- especially after Iowa fans (suckers!) sold out the bowl prior to selection Sunday. SI's Andy Staples has moved from calling it the "Separate But Equal Bowl" to a great game that should be the national semifinal. The Wimple heartily agrees.

Oh well. Here's Mark May and Lou "Thkippy" Holtz on the matchup:


...and here're Ivan Maisel and Pat Forde, both of whom go on record preferring TCU over Texas for the title game berth:

2009 All-MWC Frogs

Offensive Player of the Year: Andy Dalton.
Defensive Player of the Year: Jerry Hughes.*
Special Teams Player of the Year: Jeremy Kerley.
Coach of the Year: Gary Patterson.

First Team: Andy Dalton ('08 HM), Marshall Newhouse ('08 2nd Team), Marcus Cannon ('08 HM), Jeremy Kerley (KR)('08 1st Team), Jerry Hughes ('08 1st Team), Daryl Washington, Raphael Priest ('08 2nd Team), Nick Sanders.

Second Team: Joe Turner, Jake Kirkpatrick, Wayne Daniels, Cory Grant, Tank Carder, Teejay Johnson.

Honorable Mention: Evan Frosch, Antoine Hicks, Jeremy Kerley (WR), Ed Wesley, Jimmy Young.*

*for the second year

Ranking by Dominance- TCU #1

From the Wimple's Missing Statistics Department comes another remarkable view of college football: the Dominance Ranking.

The NCAA provides dozens of nifty rankings, including two that capture the essence of football in its rawest terms: scoring offense and scoring defense. Does it not stand to reason that those teams falling highest in both rankings ought to be considered the most dominant? Why, yes it does. And so, as a public service, the Wimple has added together the ranks of the first 55 teams on both lists, and ranked the results.

Tellingly, the top six schools, ranked by dominance, happen to be the only remaining undefeated teams in the nation: TCU, Florida, Texas, Boise State, Cincinnati, and Alabama. This should surprise nobody-- defeating a football team about scoring more, and really about little else. The best teams at doing that, and preventing other teams from doing so, simply must be considered the most dominant in the land.

Here are the top 25, with each team's scoring offense and scoring defense ranks added together:

1 (10) TCU
2 (11) Florida
3 (12) Texas
4 (19) Boise State
5 (25) Cincinnati
6 (27) Alabama
7 (30) Central Michigan
8 (37) Pittsburgh
8 (37) Oklahoma
10 (38) Virginia Tech
11 (45) Clemson
12 (46) Texas Tech
13 (47) Penn State
14 (48) BYU
15 (51) Oregon
16 (54) Miss.
17 (59) Oregon State
19 (61) Tennessee
19 (61) Air Force
21 (62) Northern Ill.
22 (65) Miami
23 (67) Georgia Tech
23 (67) Rutgers
25 (70) Utah

Frog D about six inches shy of first place

It has to be the closest three teams have ever come to a tie for best total defense in a season; Florida tops the list at 233.08 yards allowed per game, on average. TCU is second, allowing about six inches more than the Gators. Alabama is third, allowing a full two feet and eight inches more than TCU, on average. For the record, Slohio State and Texas each allow about 30 yards more than the three leaders.

Flabama still has to play itself in the SEC title game, perhaps breaking the logjam at the top.
[update: Florida got routed by Alabama, giving up 490 yards in the title game, and now averages 252.8 yards per game this season. Alabama gave up 335 yards, and now averages 241.7 yards per game. Texas now averages just over 251, good for about third place, behind #1 TCU and #2 Alabama. TCU has a decent shot at a second consecutive #1 finish in total defense.]

TCU 51, New Mexico 10

While it's true the game wasn't over before it started, TCU demolished New Mexico, apparently without trying too hard. The Lobos recovered two Horned Frog fumbles, and forced the purple and white to punt seven times. But in the end, it was still a coronation for the conference champs, and an emphatic one at that. TCU out-ran New Mexico 4.5 ypc to 0.3; out-passed UNM 9.5 ypc to 3.6; and threw no interceptions to UNM's four- two of those for TDs.









Dalton and the offense alternated between spectacular and uninspiring. In one first-half five-and-a-half minute stretch, Joe Turner ran for a TD, and Dalton threw TD passes to Bart Johnson and (twice) to Antoine Hicks. The Frogs let up on the gas after that, scoring only 7 more offensive points.



















TCU's run defense showed its might early and often, holding the Lobos to only ten yards on the ground. Kelly Griffin nearly intercepted Donovan Porterie (see photo), and Jerry Hughes tallied his 11th sack of the season (technically 11.5th). Daryl Washington and Tank Carder combined for 21 tackles, five of them for losses, and interception and a pass break-up. Washington and Raphael Priest each had pick-sixes on consecutive UNM drives in the fourth quarter.

photos: Keith Robinson

An open letter to non-cartel coach voters: put TCU #1

Dear non-BCS coach-voters in the USAToday Coaches' Poll:

Few observers in the sport see more clearly than you do how the BCS cartel handicaps your teams, and all of the D-1A non-cartel teams (the so-called "non-AQ" teams). But more than seeing the damage, you all have a unique opportunity to weaken the damaging divide between the BCS cartel's haves and have-nots. You have a vote in the polls-- a say in how college football's best pie gets divided among its teams and conferences.

Why cast your first place vote this week for a member of the cartel that plays a weaker schedule than TCU? Why cast your first place vote this week for a team less balanced than TCU, which is the only team in the NCAA featuring a top-5 offense and defense? (Florida comes closest next: it has a top-5 defense, but its offense is only 15th nationally!) Why cast your first place vote for a team that cries to momma about how unfair it is to be scrutinized by the press and other coaches, while TCU puts up, shuts up, and kicks butt week in and week out?

Your first place vote for TCU would not be an indefensible protest; some of the most prescient commentators on the sport have made powerful cases for TCU already. Here're Matt Hinton's and BCSGuru's, for example. Wyoming's players-- the only athletes in D-1A who've played both TCU and Texas-- say TCU is the better team. Utah's coach called this year's TCU team the best he's ever seen-- and he's seen some great ones.

In short, isn't it time to put the burden of proof on the cartel members for once? Why not cast your first place vote for TCU, and demand the BCS cartel show why an all-time great non-cartel team doesn't deserve to outrank opponents from within the cartel that are less balanced, play weaker schedules, and whine about it?

--Purple Wimple

November 25, 2009

Not just another day in Frog heaven

When TCU takes the field Saturday, it will be well favored to beat New Mexico; to finish the regular season 12-0, giving this year's seniors the most wins of any class of Horned Frogs in history; to clinch a berth to its biggest bowl game since the '50s; and to take an honored place among the great teams of the 1930s that achieved this singular distinction: unbeaten in the regular season. All of that is grand, and worthy of much fanfare; but the Wimple offers another perspective on TCU's remarkable 2009 campaign.

When the Southwest Conference broke up in 1994, leaving TCU and three other weaklings to rot, its abandonment of the Horned Frogs was particularly poignant. Oldtimers well remembered when TCU was the giant among Texas schools during the Depression; not-so-old timers could recall TCU's decade-long duel in the '50s with UT for conference supremacy. But for a generation after TCU surrendered that war, letting two-squad play, limitless scholarships for state schools under the GI Bill, and rampant cheating in paying for recruits, all pass it by, the Horned Frogs were a bland and brand-less squad, losers on the gridiron. Its boosters succumbed to the "way it was" in the early '80s, paying their way to the conference championship in '84, before the hammer fell.

Several years ago, the Wimple recounted all of this in greater detail; this tale of decline reaches bottom with the "walking death penalty" given TCU in '85, and its conference's demise a decade later. Then came the revival-- labeled an "experiment" in that larger telling. Could a rule-abiding, privately-funded non-cartel football team thrive in Division 1-A ? Early returns were hopeful, but the program seemed unable to put the cap on its upswings. Dizzying flirtations with BCS bids ended unfruitfully in 2000 and 2003 with late-season road losses scaring off the cartel suitor-agents. An early-season loss in '05 kept them away until it was too late; another late-season road loss was excuse enough in '08, despite laxer eligibility rules that kept TCU technically (but not practically) in play through selection Sunday. The Wimple's history concluded:

The experiment seemed to have reached its logical limits: a team outside the BCS cartel and resources, committed to recruiting and graduating honest student athletes, could win most games, but not regularly, and not under pressure.

Indeed, TCU appeared good enough to flirt with the big-money bowls, high poll ranking, and NFL-bound talent. But fate never seemed to bless the Frogs' attempts to assemble all of the ingredients. But a TCU victory Saturday will render that sentence incomplete without the following caveat: until 2009. What the Frogs may accomplish in five days is no less than a reversal of almost 50 years' curse. TCU may rise above irrelevance on Saturday; above its nomad journey through the outcasts of Division 1-A; above a couple generations' acceptance as a has-been, a history lesson, a glint only in grandfathers' eyes. TCU again vies with Texas for supremacy in the Lone Star State, and in the nation.

What changed?

Dr. Saturday gives a hint:

"TCU ... is good at everything -- literally everything. The Frogs currently rank in the top 10 nationally in pretty much every conceivable facet of the game: Scoring Offense (No. 5), Total Offense (5), Scoring Defense (6), Total Defense (4), Rushing Offense (5), Pass Efficiency Offense (9), Rushing Defense (6), Passing Defense (3), Pass Efficiency Defense (5), First Downs Gained (7), First Downs Allowed (1), Third Down Defense, Kickoff Returns (1), Sacks Allowed (6), [and] Time of Possession (10)."

There's no doubt the '09 Frogs have added potent offense and special teams play to their portfolio, which has including nationally leading defense frequently since Gary Patterson's arrival in 1998. But the addition of (and better use of) top-talent on offense appears to have been the missing piece. With its new mojo holding the ball, TCU went to Clemson, Air Force, and BYU, and beat all three. In its last six games TCU has averaged over 523 yards per game, 300 of those on the ground. And all of this without a single 1,000-yard rusher or receiver!

Several changes among the coordinators may have prompted the outburst on the field. Rusty Burns has taught the receivers how to upgrade their blocking and route running. First-year playcallers Justin Fuente and Jarrett Anderson have opened the playbook a little. But the Frogs have amassed a frightful cast of weapons for these coaches to deploy in any formation. The talent upgrade that has been underway since about 2005 has begun to show up between the hashmarks. Every indication points to a further rise in the Frogs' on-field prowess.

Given a win Saturday, it will be time to re-cast the narrative of football in purple and white. Beating New Mexico will complete the Revival, and more than merely a new chapter in the history of TCU football: it will commence a new book entirely. That tome's title?

Juggernaut.

TCU 45, Wyoming 10

It took a few minutes to get the machine going, but once started, the TCU offensive and defensive squads were relentless. Despite turning it over three times, the Horned Frogs rolled up almost 500 yards, 23 first downs, and 45 points in three quarters, while holding the Cowboys to 130 yards (98 of them on a touchdown fumble return), three first downs (all on one drive), and ten points.

Dalton was decent, completing only 52% of his passes, including one TD and one interception, but running 12 times for for 89 yards and four first downs. Matthew Tucker rushed for 133 yards, including 48 for a TD in the third quarter. One play after Wyoming ran a weird fumble back for six, Greg McCoy returned the favor, racing all the way down the sideline for an answering six.

The first team defense was sensational, holding all but one of Wyoming drives to three-and-out, or less, with Daryl Washington tallying eleven tackles. The second team defense let Wyoming drive into the redzone, but gave up no points.

With the win, the Frogs captured at least a share of the conference title, and reached 11-0 on the season for the first time in 71 years. A win next week against New Mexico would make the '09 seniors the winningest class in TCU history, and be the first time TCU ever won 12 games in the regular season.

Here're highlights:


In other news, New Mexico won its first game of the season today, and comes to Fort Worth for the Frogs' rubber match with BCS autobid eligibility. In short, TCU's road to the BCS looks something like this:















Only routine obstacles stand between the Frogs and their first prime-time bowl since the '50s.

25 years ago...

... SMU and TCU both went to bowl games in the same season: TCU to the Independence Bowl, and SMU to the Aloha Bowl. Prior to '84, both teams bowled in the same season just twice. In 1948, both teams played January first bowls: TCU in the first Delta Bowl and SMU in the Cotton. The first time TCU and SMU bowled in the same year was after the famous 1935 Game of the Century, when SMU beat Sam Baugh and TCU, winning a bid to the Rose Bowl, and TCU settled for a Sugar Bowl berth.

When'll be the fourth time these stars align? 2009 (including early 2010, if the Frogs win out). SMU joined TCU in bowl eligibility with its come from behind win over UTEP Saturday.

TCU 55, Utah 28

All week the Wimple has been at a loss to find a way sum up the game's significance. ESPN deigned to visit the campus; a conference game sold out; the Frogs' BCS ranking was the highest among the non-cartel teams ever; these (and a dozen more) facts pointed at the issue, but somehow fall short of describing it fully.

Perhaps a number will do the trick: 50,307. That's how many tickets TCU sold for this game.

That's over fifty thousand, should your common sense be arguing with you right now. And it's probably somewhere shy of actual attendance, considering how jammed the students (and alums still flashing student IDs at the gate) were on the east side.

No Southwest Conference game ever drew so many; no horde of tea-sippers from Austin, no mob of Arkansas hillbillies or uppity Mustangs, not even any grand gathering of Frog faithful in the good old days ever numbered so many as Saturday's throng, purple-clad almost to a one. The jubilation was well under way when the Wimples (including one fly-in from Alberta, Canada) squeezed in with the students about 90 minutes before kickoff. By the time the clock began counting down 60 minutes to gametime, there were easily more than 25,000 already in place. Many actual games have been seen by fewer fans than this week's warmups, even since the revival.

Coach P said his feet were off the ground by kickoff, it was so loud. The crowd was relatively football savvy, too. Clearly the team was enthused by all of it-- TCU blocked its first punt of the season, and generally was a step ahead of the Utes all night long. Utah tested the Frog secondary early and often, and could connect only a few times, though two consecutive completions midway through the second quarter totaled 90 yards and 6 points. Jordan Wynn was excellent, but totally overmatched. He'll lead a different animal in 2010.

Dalton was good, passing over (and quickly!) an endless litany of blitzes; he put the ball in the wrong place several times, but avoided costly errors, and punished the Utes early and often with good passes, decisions, and running. The Frogs won the battle in the trenches soundly. Turner, Wesley, Tucker, and Dalton combined for 40 carries, 315 yards, 3 running TDs, 0 sacks or QB hurries. Wesley and Tucker will cause many a nightmare for opposing defense coordinators; they were sensational Saturday. (now add to the mix Andre Dean, Waymon James, and maybe Dwight Smith... and weep for the good days ahead!)

In the air, the Frogs had slightly less yards than the Utes; but aside from the two-play 90-yard drive in the second, the Utes were generally one dimensional at best, and often no-dimensional. TCU's defense was simply hellacious, and the coaches didn't let up. Hughes was unrelenting, tallying eight tackles (2.5 of them for losses, and three on one drive), 1.5 sacks and three QB hurries. Tank Carder (who was all grins afterwards) got nine tackles, one for a loss, one INT, one PBU, and one QB hurry. Washington and Griffin was monstrous as well. When the Frogs finally put in their second team D, the Utes were done trying. They ran up the middle, for zero or less yards, giving back the ball, and letting the Frogs take a knee to end the pain.

And then the floodgates opened, for the first time since 1997, but for the totally opposite reason. The fans poured onto the field, and celebrated the victory (ostensibly with the team, but mostly with each other) and chanted "B-C-S" and sang the alma mater as rowdily as humanly possible.








here's ESPN's Saturday preview, filmed from the commons at TCU:



and highlights, via the mtn.:


and the YouTube highlights, from SuperFrog:

Frogs' new Nike duds

TCU is among a handful of schools participating this weekend in a campaign by Nike, promoting supposedly innovative uniform technology.

The Wimple likes the blood-spurt red stripes on the helmet, in homage to the horned frog's famed defense against predators.

FWST reports the players are excited about wearing the gnarly new getup. If it stokes TCU's intensity on gameday, the Wimple approves.

Knock 'em dead, Froggies.

#4 Frogs get ESPN Gameday

TCU 55, SDSU 12

Gary Patterson couldn't have been more wrong. With almost-convincing earnestness, the old ball coach said of playing SDSU, "We are going to have to fight, claw, scratch and get everything we can to try and come back with one more point."

Fight, claw, scratch, and get everything they could the Frogs did; and for their efforts, they got not just one, but 43 more points. To nitpick, SDSU converted five third downs (the same number as TCU); and Brandon Sullivan had a pretty good day against the Frogs' defense, netting 75 yards on 17 carries.

But in the beginning, middle, and end, it was all TCU, all the time. The Frogs got points to finish nine of 13 drives, and never allowed SDSU into the red zone. Dalton's favorite target du jour was Ryan Christian (pictured), who caught three passes, two for TDs. Young, Hicks, and Kerley also caught multiple passes each. LBs Daryl Washington, Tank Carder, and Tanner Brock combined for 19 tackles (14 solo).

Ahead of them, Iowa lost at home to Northwestern, and Cincinnati barely beat Connecticut in a shootout in Cincy. Oregon, the strength of Boise's schedule, lost; Clemson, BYU, Utah, and Air Force, the strength of TCU's schedule, all won. Clemson's win over Florida State likely puts the Tigers comfortably into the polls and the ACC championship game.

Now comes the highlight game of the season: the rematch grudgematch with Utah, who's sporting a very new quarterback and significantly downgraded run defense. The Wimple does not expect this game to hinge on Ross Evans's prowess at field goal kicking.

Gameday Preview: SDSU

The Frogs head to the west coast in a trip eerily similar to the ill-fated San Jose State trip in 2000, when the Frogs' long winning streak and BCS-hype came crashing to a halt in a rainy upset. The Aztecs of San Diego State hope history repeats itself today, and they have some weapons to deploy to that end.

Sophomore quarterback Ryan Lindley has been hot recently, averaging a 168.8 QB rating in the last three games. DeMarco Samson has stepped into injured WR Vincent Brown's shoes, averaging 9 catches for 130 yards in the same span.

But the Frogs are on a roll, and have not experienced a dropoff in performance on the road this season. Dalton has rated in the 170s each of his last three games; the Frogs' attack is vastly more balanced than the Aztecs'. While SDSU has made strides this season (its defense is now middling average, instead of ghastly bad) and will continue to make them next year, TCU's strides are behind them, and now the Frogs lead the pack. Look for TCU to extend its '09 winning streak to 10 games, setting up a big-time showdown next week in Fort Worth with the Utes.

TCU 37, SDSU 9