watch this movie

It's a documentary about Boise State's dream season (2006), with a heavy and proper focus on the Bronco's Fiesta Bowl win over Oklahoma. Link is in the title of this post.

The epitaph for the BCS will begin, "When BSU beat OU in the '07 Fiesta Bowl..."

Howdy, Dr. Saturday readers

The Wimple was tickled to be linked from SMQ's new digs, Dr. Saturday. The Purple Wimple is the best place to bone up on TCU and the Mountain West. Take a gander, and come back in a few weeks for a feast of rare bird: insight-filled pre-season previews of those teams. The Wimple doesn't do insight-free previews, which (sadly) are the norm for cartel-outsiders.

Seats at the polls

Last season, the Wimple was curious to see the press take interest in the relatively large number of cartel-outsider teams in the polls: as many as six non-cartel teams were ranked at a time in 2008. Being ranked is one of college football's most overlooked Big Deals. Ranked teams get press coverage merely because they're ranked; they get little blurbs on ESPN, in the newspapers, in score rundowns at halftime, etc. Ranked teams are familiar teams, by sheer volume of mentions, if nothing else.

It follows, then, that any non-cartel team on the polls is taking away a certain amount of press coverage from a cartel team: and the Wimple applauds.

So just how unusual was last season's splurge in ranked non-cartel teams? Here follows a survey of non-cartel teams' appearances in the last 17 college football seasons' AP polls, with each season's per-week average. (that's key, because the number of weeks-- and polls-- in the season varies.)

2008-- 73, 4.294
2007-- 30, 1.875
2006-- 28, 1.750
2005-- 37 (23 without Louisville, a tweeny in '05), 2.313 (1.438)
2004-- 57, 3.563
2003-- 48, 2.824
2002-- 33, 1.833
2001-- 44, 2.588
2000-- 37, 2.176
1999-- 47, 2.765
1998-- 22, 1.375
1997-- 29, 1.611
1996-- 41, 2.278
1995-- 5, 0.294
1994-- 33, 1.941
1993-- 21, 1.235
1992-- 10, 0.588

source: AP Poll archive

Clearly the broad trajectory for the outsiders is up; and just as clearly, 2008 was a banner year for press attention to cartel-outsiders. 2009 may exceed it: look for TCU, Boise State, Nevada, BYU, East Carolina, Southern Miss, and perhaps Utah, Air Force, Houston, UTEP, and Central Michigan to spend multiple weeks in the polls.

Media days coach interviews

These are fascinating interviews with the MWC head coaches at the conference's media days in late July.

Hating the BCS, round 109

Lest a day go by without a thought about how despicable the BCS thieves are, here's a visual reminder.

Que puking sounds, and fresh awe of teams like Boise State and Utah who crashed the cartel's party, and won the hottest girls' hearts therein.

And while you're at it, cue fresh jeers for teams like Baylor, Mississippi State, Syracuse, Washington, who cannot convert every possible monetary advantage into a bowl berth or final ranking.

The title of this post links to the whole article.

MWC special teams

Lest anyone accuse the Wimple of forgetting special teams, or their importance, here's a rundown of the MWC's kicking and punting crews. Just don't remind the Wimple of Utah's margin of victory over TCU last season... and how many field goals the Frogs missed (aaaaaagh!)

TCU loses its all-conference kick returner, Aaron Brown, and reliable kicker Drew Combs. The Frogs return everybody else, including kicker Ross Evans, all-conference punter Anson Kelton, returners Jeremy Kerley and Ryan Christian. Look for another top-notch year for TCU special teams; and if Evans becomes reliable, look for even more.

New Mexico returns one of the nation's best kickers, sophomore James Aho, a freshman all-American last season, and very experienced punter Adam Miller. Former lobo-back Ian Clark returns kicks. The Lobos should have some of the special teams in the conference.

Colorado State loses a very reliable kicker in Jason Smith, but adds a good kicking recruit Pete Kontadiakos, whom high hopes attend. Ben DeLine, who played as a true freshman last year while Smith was injured, may be just as reliable. The Rams' kicking should be pretty good; John Mosure returns, returning kicks. CSU could have excellent special teams.

San Diego State returns starters at kicker and punter, Lane Yoshida and Brian Stahovich, and at kick returner: Davion Mauldin. Look for improvement (especially in kick returns) and a top-tier of the conference season for special teams.

BYU sends its thunder-legged punter Sorenson on a mission, but returns the very experienced kicker Mitch Payne. Returner Austin Collie jumped to the NFL, but O'Neill Chambers returns, and will excell. Tyler Holt will punt for his first time in college. Look for a dropoff in special teams in Provo.

Utah simply will not be able to replace Louie Sakoda's punting and kicking fully. Sakoda beat TCU for the Utes, and kept them ahead of Michigan. Senior Ben Vroman, and freshmen Nick Marsh and Christopher Hoyt will share duties in some order or another. One the bright side, all-conference kick returner David Reed returns. Look for decent, but no longer otherworldly special teams from Utah.

UNLV lost a part-time punter in Dack Ishii, and returner (and monstrous wideout) Casey Flair. Returning are JUCO transfer Brendon Lamers as punter, Ben Jaekle as kicker, and Kyle Watson as both. Returners Deanta Purvis and Michael Johnson return. Look for improved special teams play in Las Vegas.

Air Force loses its all-conference kicker and punter Ryan Harrison to graduation, and likely has lost its all-conference kick returner Reggie Rembert to indefinite suspension. Likely this will result in the Falcons' special teams play, which had been a strength, becoming a weakness. Rembert's replacement is a question; Zack Bell and Brandon Geyer take over kicking duties.

Wyoming's kicking last year was miserable. Kicker Jake Scott and punter Austin McCoy return, and should be better, if only for experience. David Leonard and Marcell Gipson return as returners, but neither are as speedy as graduated Devin Moore. Look for improvement in Wyoming's special teams, but that's not saying much.

MWC QBs

Truth is, the Wimple began this survey of MWC squads with a look at the conference's quarterbacks, in an attempt to rank them. That proved inadequate, and so the following four posts became the predicate to this one. The Mountain West has a tremendous cast of quarterbacks at the helm this season. What follows is an approximate ranking of the conference's big men on campus.

Leading the pack, in the Wimple's unhumble estimation, is UNLV's duo, junior Omar Clayton starting, and sophomore Mike Clausen ably backing him up. Clausen had a better spring game, but Clayton has that it factor that separates not only a starter from a backup, but first-ranked QB from the second. Working behind his best o-line yet, and with an improved defense to keep him on the field longer, look for Clayton to lead UNLV back into the post-season, and to win all-conference lauds.
UNLV is in the enviable position of having the heir apparent already experienced. Clauson had to start a few games last season, and is pushing Clayton. Coach Sanford refuses to say there's a QB battle, but any dropoff from the starter may result in a inversion of the two-deep.

BYU can go as far as Max Hall can take them. That may not be to the promised land of 12-0, considering Oklahoma returns its entire d-line and a top-notch team generally, and TCU's offense likely will keep BYU's off the field for long stretches, but Hall is capable of exploiting BYU's receivers, line, and runners to their full capacity. That probably means BYU racks up another double-digit win season, and at least ties for the conference crown. Hall says he wants to run more, and if that's more than bluster, it'd make Hall even more of a fright under center. Cougar fans will spend 2009 falling back in love with Max Hall. Next to Hall on the depth chart is, um . . . Brendon Gaskins. Riley Nelson is #3, but all eyes are fixed on BYU's gaudy new recruit Jake Heaps, who'll early enroll for '10. Because 2011 feels like an eternity, the Wimple says it's now or never for BYU. Hall can take them there.

TCU has one of the conferences two darkhorses at QB. Junior Andy Dalton did win an honorable mention last season, but his experience and performance indicate that greater production awaits. His dual-threat capacity no longer surprises: it's expected. Add the conference's best o-line, backfield, and receiving corps, and it appears Dalton is on the brink of a season unlike any a quarterback has seen in Fort Worth in generations. His backups, very experienced senior Marcus Jackson and redshirt freshman Yogi Gallegos are comfortable enough in the offense that highly touted (and early enrolled) Casey Pachall will redshirt. Look for an eye-popping year in Fort Worth.

Things have calmed down in Colorado Springs, where Air Force looks to return Tim Jefferson under center, eligibility scare notwithstanding. Asher Clark may take some snaps as well, particularly with the popular "Wild Frog" sweeping Division 1. These two sophomores came out of nowhere (it seemed) and took Air Force to bowl eligibility against high odds last season. They return as part of the most exciting cast in the academy's recent memory, to test if the MWC has room for a Big Four. If Jefferson can become more of a passing threat, he'll lead one of the best underdog attacks in the nation.

San Diego State has BYU-like passing potential in its returner, sophomore Ryan Lindley. Lindley is the other darkhorse for all-conference lauds at quarterback. If his line can give him time (and it'll certainly be able to give him more time than last season, but that's not necessarily high praise) and his receivers are up to the task, SDSU will boast a gaudy passing attack. Backup Drew Westling is a step down, but less so than last year.

Utah graduated a game-changer in Brian Johnson, the first-team all-conference QB and offensive player of the year. Johnson's poise probably made the difference between 13-0 and 9-4 last season, with terrific final drives at Oregon State and Michigan and against TCU, and a lights out Why Doesn't That Guy Have A Heisman? performance in the Sugar Bowl. Going into fall, it's a three-way battle (officially) between junior change-of-pace backeup Corbin Louks, JUCO five-star transfer Terrence Cain, and early enrolled true frosh Jordan Wynn. Look for Wynn to redshirt, and for a season-long debate over whether Louks or Cain should have won the starting job. Utah's returning cast is going to take a step back, and the place where it'll show the second-most is at QB. (Where will it show the most? Kicker!)

New Mexico is another team with a QB battle raging, although returning starter Donovan Porterie appears to have won it. Brad Gruner, who started eight games last season, might disagree. Because the Lobos are installing a new offense, look for mildly disappointing performance this season.

Colorado State really hopes something clicks this offseason with early enrolled JUCO transfer Jon Eastman. He challenged Grant Stucker and Klay Kubiak this spring at quarterback, and all three drew jeers from coach Fairchild. Pinning hopes on freshman Nico Ranieri is just unfair to Ram fans, who have the nation's #1 experienced returning offensive line this season, and good receivers too. Look for barely adequate QB performance this year in Fort Collins, and that mostly because the Rams' line and receivers are pretty good.

Wyoming is also installing a new offense: one returning starter Karsten Sween ran in high school. Maybe that means he'll have an inside edge on starting this season, over Dax Crum and Chris Stutzriem. But Sween is the kid who has twice lost, and twice re-gained the starting role over those same backups, so it's hard to get excited about Sween's return under center. Look for freshmen recruits Austyn Carta-Samuels and Robert Benjamin to press for PT as freshmen, and maybe win the starting role altogether, like Lindley did at SDSU last season.

MWC receiving corps

TCU graduated TE Shae Reagan, who never seemed to match his enormous potential. Clutch receiver Walter Bryant also graduated. The Frogs' returning rollcall is long, and frightening. Andy Dalton's favorite TE target, Evan Frosch, starts, with rising stars Logan Brock and Corey Fuller pressing for reps. All-conference receiver Jimmy Young, returners Antoine Hicks, and Jeremy Kerley have impressed beyond their already-high expectations in practice. Bart Johnson, Ryan Christian, Curtis Clay, and Jonathan Jones all have starting experience. Alonzo Adams completes the 2-deep. With better coaching from the Frogs' new WR coach, and the conference's most experienced QB corps at the helm, expect TCU's pass-attack to headline the conference in 2008.

San Diego State lost Darren Mougey and Justin Shaw after the '08 season, but returns a long list of receivers and TEs, and may boast a surprisingly potent pass attack this season. Based on spring returns, DeMarco Sampson and Vincent Brown will keep a lot of secondaries very busy. Roberto Wallace is highly experienced, as are backups John Toledo, Mekell Wesley. Converted WR Matthew Kawulok is a big target (245 lbs). Expect good things from the Aztecs' new passing game.

BYU lost two good wide-outs to graduation and the draft: Michael Reed and all-conference Austin Collie. The Cougars return the first-team all-MWC tight end, Dennis Pitta, and his backup Andrew George. These TEs are fantastic; the receiving corps is unproven. McKay Jacobsen was very good pre-mission, and but Luke Ashworth and Chambers have seen very few snaps at wide-out. Granted, BYU has earned the benefit of the doubt, and likely will find a bevy of fine receivers in its 2-deep. Exactly who they are, however, remains to be seen.

UNLV sent all-MWC Casey Flair into the record books, as well as starting TE Ryan Worthen and experienced WR Gerold Rodriguez. It's returning cast is very good. Luke Plante starts as TE; all-MWC Ryan Wolfe, Jerriman Robinson, Phillip Payne, and Rodelin Anthony may be the best starting four in the conference. Their backups are not as brilliant, but that's not saying very much, because the starters are so good. If the Rebels don't need to depend too much on the 2s, they may pass their way to a bowl game.

Colorado State graduated its best TE in years, all-conference Kory Sperry. The Rams return 5 of their top seven receivers however, including the top two, all-MWC Rashaun Greer and Dion Morton. Starting TE Zac Pauga returns as well, giving the Rams' yet un-named QB a very good set of targets in what may be an improved pass attack.

Air Force graduated its best playmaking TE Travis Dekker, as well as three other experienced starters, Keith Madsen, Ty Paffett, and Spencer Armstrong. The Falcons return their top three receivers, Josh Cousins, Kyle Halderman, and converted TE Sean Quintana. Cousins' and Quintana's backups, Kevin Fogler and Daniel Pickett, are experienced as well. This group is Calhouns' most experienced set of receivers yet. Whether or not they'll pry open AFA's ground-heavy attack remains a secret; if so, the Falcons may muscle their way into the conference's top three for a second year in three.

Utah graduated three very good receivers, Bradon Godfrey, all-MWC Freddie Brown and Brent Casteel, last season. Who'll step up among the returners is one of the Utes' many burning questions this fall. Jereme Brooks and David Reed are poised for very big years. Aiona Key, Elijah Wesson, DeVonte Christopher, and Shaky Smithson are all in the mix to be the #3 target for... for whoever pins down the starting QB spot (see the coming MWC QBs post for profiles of the three Ute amigos under center).

New Mexico loses its #4 and #5 receivers, Jermain McQueen and TE Chris Mark. The returning top three, Chris Hernandez, Bryant Williams, and Roland Bruno, will get a lot more balls thrown their way in Mike Locksley's new spread. Look for TE Lucas Reed, Michael Scarlett, and Daryl Jones to see plenty of snaps as well. What one ought not expect from the Lobos in their first year of the spread is a brilliant pass attack. That's for subsequent years.

Wyoming lost its fourth most productive WR to graduation, Chris Johnson, and gained one of the nation's spread gurus for a coach. That probably means that Greg Bolling, Brandon Stewart, Jesson Salyards, David Leonard, and Donate Morgan (last year's receivers #1, 2, 3, and 5) will all have much bigger years than last year, when the leader (Bolling) only caught 26 balls for under 300 yards. Like New Mexico-- but worse-- the Cowboys begin Year One of the spread, and will probably feature the ugliest offense in the conference. This pass attack will be good in spurts, and gawd-awful in between.

MWC o-lines & runningbacks

TCU sent the first-team all-conference center to the NFL this spring, and graduated a two-year starter at guard. With Schlueter and Montgomery gone, the Horned Frogs will line up all-MWC Marshall Newhouse, Kyle Dooley, new starter Jake Kirkpatrick, Josh Vernon or JUCO transfer Zach Roth, and all-MWC Marcus Cannon in front. Monstrous returning starter Nic Richmond probably will rotate with Cannon (who tips the scales at a clean 350 lbs!). This line will be the conference's most potent: only Kirkpatrick and Roth have never started; Roth redshirted last season; both have impressed in practice. Dooley and Vernon pushed their way ahead of more experienced starters into the first team last season.
The Frogs' weakest link last season was at tailback; a lack of power running made the difference between the Frogs and Utes in SLC; it would have made the OU game more interesting. Coach Gary Patterson clearly made power running a priority since, and has perhaps the most audacious transfer- and redshirting backfield in the nation under his wing. Assuming this four-headed beast does redshirt, and sit out as required, the Frogs replace Aaron Brown and Justin Watts with returning starter Joseph Turner, senior Chris Smith, sophemore speedsters Jai Cavness and Jercell Fort, fullback Luke Shivers, and redshirt freshman phenom Edward Wesley. Reports put Turner splitting snaps with Wesley, who apparently became unstoppable after signing with the Frogs. Behind this group lurks the menacing quartet of James, Tucker, Smith, and Dean, who'll press the returners like no other group on the roster. Look for dominance on the ground from TCU for years to come.

For the first time in Air Force coach Troy Calhoun's tenure, he has an experienced offensive line to work with. Starters at LT (Williams) and C (Pipes) graduate, but the replacements are experienced. LT A.J. Wallerstein is one of Calhoun's fabulous freshmen who worked into the 2-deep last year. The Academy returns multi-year all-conference guard Nick Charles at LG. Experienced senior Michael Hampton finally gets to start at center. To his right are returning starters Peter Lusk and all-conference tackle Chris Campbell. Every bit as much as the flashy skill players working behind it, this o-line has Falcon fans' expectations for a third consecutive bowl season sky high.
Speaking of skill players, Asher Clark's recovery from a torn meniscus in the spring is perhaps the #1 issue for the Falcons' backfield this fall. Clark-- or perhaps Tim Jefferson-- will share touches with Kyle Lumpkin, Savier Stephens, and Jared Tew, running AFA's ground-eating option. Clark is said to have returned in form, (and Tim Jefferson is eligible, says the coach, see coming post about MWC qbs), the Falcons should have their most potent offense in recent memory on the field.

Utah must rebuild the right half of its offensive line, losing all-conference guard Robert Conleyand two-year starter Dustin Hensel. Tony Bergstrom returns from an LDS mission to play RT, and D-lineman turned o-lineman, now with a year's game experience at RG starts Neli A'asa. Returning on the line are all-conference LT Zane Beadles, LG- Caleb Schlauderaff, and all-MWC center Zane Taylor. Don't look for much dropoff in Utah's push up front, which won them 4.1 ypc last year.
Behind the line, RB Darrell Mack graduated, leaving Matt Asiata the clear go-to guy on the ground. Asiata led the team in yards and carries last season, and will be backed up by Eddie Wide and Sausan Shakerin. Look for this backfield to match last year's production.

BYU loses four starting linemen, three of them all-conference performers: Ray Feinga and Dallas Reynolds first-teamers, and Travis Bright on the second team. These four excelled in all but a handful of games in the last three or more years. The only starter returning is Matt Reynolds, who will play LT, with experienced uperclassmen Jason Speredon, R.J. Willing lining up at LG and C. Sophomore Terence Brown and experienced junior Nick Alletto complete the line. This front five has plenty of experience, just not starts in spades. Last year's line had only the third-best YPC in four years, so don't expect much dropoff; it isn't beyond reasonable possibility that this line wil exceed last year's.
These big guys will be blocking for returning starter Harvey Unga, and for J.J. DiLuigi and Manase Tonga. This group loses only Fui Vakapuna, now in the NFL. This is one of the conference's best backfields, running behind a good line. BYU's ability to move the ball on the ground is underestimated this season; look for the Cougars' ground game to excel, complimenting what will be a wicked pass attack.

Colorado State returns the most experienced offensive line in the nation, with Cole Pemberton, Shelley Smith, Tim Walter, Adrian Martinez, and Mark Starr all returning. Mark Starr replaces Dane Stratton, and only Smith has been all-conference, but look for this group to make lots of room for somebody (more on that below) to fill in some of Gartrell Johnson's big shoes at runningback.
Johnson and Kyle Bell's graduation leaves only younger players who've never started to tote the rock for the Rams. JUCO transfer Leonard Mason early enrolled, but did not settle the matter. John Mosure, Michael Connor, and Jonathan Gaye are all competing for touches, as well. Without a playmaker behind them, CSU's great '09 o-line may be one of the more potent wastes in the conference.

UNLV loses two starters on the line, guards Johan Asiata and Sifi Moala. Long-time starter Joe Hawley settles in at RG, and the young Sean Tesoro has won praise for his performance at LG. Returners Matt Murphy, John Gianninoto, and Evan Marchal complete the line, making UNLV's starting five one of the conference's best. They'll top four ypc for the first time since TCU joined the conference.
Why does the Wimple rank this unit so low, then? Because no Rebel runner has yet shown the capacity to fill most, let alone all, of graduating Frank Summers's shoes. C.J. Cox probably has the inside track to starting, because he's been around Las Vegas two or three years longer than incoming freshman Bradley Randle, who will challenge Cox for the starting role. If UNLV's backfield can show some life, look for the Rebs' bowl-chase finally to bear fruit in 2009.

New Mexico replaces the left two starters on its o-line, Sylvester Hatten and Matt Streid. Joining the returning all-conference center Eric Cook, and the returning RG and RT Joshua Taufalele and Byron Bell will be experienced Ivan Hernandez and Maurice Mears, both JUCO transfers who played last season with the Lobos. This line, while experienced, won't have as much talent running behind it as last year, when the Lobos got 4.6 ypc.
Speaking of them running behind, New Mexico graduated Rodney Ferguson, it's second great runner the last few years. Paul Paker and Matt Quillen also do not return. The only Lobo runner returning who started a game is FB Josh Fussell, but the new offense doesn't use fullbacks much-- or at all. So experienced James Wright, Terrence Brown, and inexperienced A.J. Butler and Demond Dennis all are in the mix to become the Lobos' main back. Simply put, who'll emerge (if anyone) is an open question.

San Diego State graduated two starters on its line: LG Mike Schmidt and RT Lance Louis. Its cast of returning linemen is, like every other position, large, and like every other list for this year's time, large because of last year's incredible injury plague. Look for returners Peter Nelson, Ikaika Aken-Moeta, Trask Iosefa to play LT, LG, and center, each starting for a second year (Aken-Moeta moving from RG to LG). Redshirt freshman Jimmy Miller has moved ahead of Emillio Rivera at RG, and Mike Matamua finally gets to start at RT, where he redshirted in '07, and missed with injury in '08. This is one of the most experienced lines in the conference, but they're learning new schemes under Brady Hoke's spread, making their experience less valuable. They'll outperform their dismal '08 numbers, though. Depth is a concern.
Tyler Campbell graduated at RB, leaving Atiyyah Henderson and Brandon Sullivan with the inside track to start. This spring, Davon Brown pushed himself into contention as well. Like New Mexico, UNLV, CSU, and Wyoming, the Aztecs are waiting for a go-to runningback to emerge. Bowl eligibility may hang on it.

Wyoming must replace two starters on its o-line, both all-conference. C Tim Bond and RG Kyle Howard take 74 starts' experience with them. Only BYU loses more experience; the Cougars will replace it much more successfully, though. Wyoming is undergoing a complete personality revision, and will spend at least a year in complete discombobulation. That's start up front, where Ryan Otterson, Sam Sterner return at LT and LG, but return to something unlike they've ever played. Russ Arnold has played center at Wyoming a lot; on his right will be the young Jack Tennant. Clayton Kirven returns at RT. This group must recast itself as an up-tempo, ultra-spread offensive line, and likely will drop off from last year's 4.3 ypc significantly.
A big part of the reason for this dropoff is the graduation of runners Devin Moore and Wynel Seldon, who together accounted for something like 80% of the Cowboys' ground game. Their replacements are a complete tossup between returners Darius Terry, James Davis, James Caraway, and incoming freshman Anthony Smith. Look for regression before the new offense clicks (likely with increased infiltration of Dave Christiensen's recruits).

MWC defensive front 7s

Turning now to the lineman and linebackers of the Mountain West's defenses: the differences in ranking these units seem much smaller than the width between ranks among the MWC's secondaries. Utah returns the best known quantities in its front seven, with BYU only slightly behind them. Wyoming, UNLV, and TCU basically tie for third, with Air Force in fourth, mainly because there are just too many new starters playing in these teams' defensive fronts to confidently stack them differently. New Mexico, Colorado State, and San Diego State either will start skads of new players, or put returners in a new scheme-- or in New Mexico's case, both. These teams' defensive fronts are essentially unpredictable, and thus fall to the bottom by default.
Talent-wise, the usually suspects would rank first through third, perhaps with a surprising challenge from UNLV. But this ranking tries to give experience equal weight. It'll be interesting to compare notes in December.

Despite losing DE Paul Kruger and DT Greg Newman, Utah returns a wealth of experience on the line. Whittingham boosted the ranks a couple years ago with some JUCO linemen, and this year they begin starting, bringing with them a lot of experience. 2nd team all-conference DE Koa Misi returns for his third year as a starter. DT Dealver Siliga replaces Newman, and is experienced. The other interior lineman, Kenape Eliapo, has started in two previous seasons. Battling to replace Kruger are JUCO transfer James Aiono and very experienced Derrick Shelby. This group may meet last year's outstanding performance.
At linebacker, the Utes return all of their starters. Fotu, Sylvester, and Wright will be a superior unit.

BYU loses a terrific linebacker to graduation, Nixon, and two very good linemen to LDS missions, Russell Tialavea and Bernard Afutiti. However, the Cougars return starting ends Jan Jorgensen and Brett Denney, and backup Tevita Hola, a JUCO transfer who redshirted last year. The new personnel bring just enough questions with them to miss out on first place expectations in the conference. There are no such questions at linebacker. Jordan Pendleton, Matt Bauman, Shaun Doman, Matt Ah You, Coleby Clawson, and Vic So'oto all vie for starts. Look for this year's BYU defense to quiet last year's critics.

Wyoming loses one very good linebacker, Ward Dobbs, and a few backup linemen on defense. It returns its entire starting d-line, as seniors: Mitch Unrein, Fred Givens, and John Fletcher. As juniors, they held opponents to 3.7 ypc; expect improvement with their higher intensity workouts and coaching, making them one of the conference's best lines.
At linebacker, the Cowboys are more experienced than talented. Starters Gabe Knapton and Weston Johnson return, and experienced Brian Hendricks will replace Dobbs. While the Cowboys won't see much dropoff in this unit, they'll need to get improvement to make inroads on the conference's rushing attacks.

UNLV loses several backups on the line, and returns one of the conference's best starting four: DE Isaako Aaitui, DT Martin Tevaseu, DT Malo Taumua, and JUCO transfer B.J. Bell. Taumua's backup, Lale Taiese, was the scout team's PoY. Expect considerable improvement from last year's 5 ypc and 11 team sacks. All of the team's starters at linebacker return: Beauchamp, Paulo, and Fuimaono. Several backups saw starts last year. Together these two groups make perhaps the conference's most experienced defensive front seven. Expect all-star performance, especially because the group works behind an improved line.

TCU loses two highly under-decorated defensive tackles, in 2nd-team all-conference Cody Moore and honorable mention all-conference James Vess. DE Matt Panfil graduated as well, taking 2nd team all-conference honors with him. It'll be up to junior DTs Kelly Griffin and Cory Grant to take the heat off of returning all-world DE Jerry Hughes. Wayne Daniels will work in tandem with Hughes at right end. How this line's backups grow to compete for starts will be a good measure for the Frogs' season: Henry Nuitei, Jeremy Coleman, Clarence Leatch, and Braylon Broughton will make or break TCU's bid for the conference title.
At linebacker, the Frogs sent their second and third LBs to the NFL over two years: Jason Phillips and Robert Henson, each taking 1st team all-conference honors. Next in the Frogs' pipeline to the pros is Daryl Washington, who likely will have a monstrous year. New starter Tank Carder may be the Frogs' best kept secret. Look for no dropoff, and the emergence of another star Frog linebacker.
If the new starting linemen and linebacker play to the level of their talent, this group will finish the season ranked much higher than fifth in conference. Preseason, however, there are simply too many unknowns in the two-deep to warrant a more hopeful ranking.

Air Force loses two fantastic ends, Jake Paulson and Ryan Kemp, and two very good linebackers, Hunter Altman and Brandon Reeves. Guard Ben Garland returns to start for a third year on the line, joined by experienced DE Myles Morales and Rick Ricketts, who has impressed this spring. This unit won't be the anchor it was for the Falcons in 2008, but if Calhoun's player developing magic continues, it won't be a liability, either.
At linebacker, the Falcons return two starters, Ken Lamendola and Andre Morris. Justin Moore and Patrick Hennessey bring considerable experience to their new starting roles. This group has more experience than the '08 corps, and probably will not show much dropoff.

New Mexico loses a wealth of starters in front. Kevin Balogun, Wesley Beck, and Jeremiah Lovato each started for multiple years in Albuquerque. LBs Herbert Felder and Zach Arnett also were multi-year starters. The Lobos' rebuilt line will depend highly on early-enrolled JUCO transfer DT Peter Gardner, who impressed in the spring. New starters Jaymar Latchison and experienced Kendal Briscoe, and DeAndre Davis, a JUCO transfer who redshirted last year fill out the front four. These big guys have experience individually, but none as a group. How they'll perform together is an open question.
Behind them, the linebackers are only slightly more experienced. Joe Harris redshirted last season. Carmen Messina had one start in 2008; Terel Anyaibe had two. Clint McPeek is a third year starter, converting from the "Lobo" back to conventional linebacker. Add the new schemes for this defense, and nobody can tell what kind of performance to expect from the Lobo defense this season.

Colorado State has taken bad losses in its defensive front. DE Wade Landers, NG Matt Rupp, DE Tommie Hill, MLB Jeff Horinek all graduate. WLB Ricky Brewer got himself suspended. The Rams' line is in the hands of Cory Macon, Guy Miller, and James Morehead, with backups Ty Whittier and Sam Stewart. This group is experienced, but has only a few starts between them. CSU didn't have a head-knocking group up front last year, but if this line gels, it could greatly outperform expectations.
At linebacker, Mychal Sisson, Luke Diehl, and Chris Gipson start. Losing Brewer to suspension hurt this inexperienced group.

San Diego State also implements highly new schemes, but does so with experienced players almost without exception. The Aztecs lose Siaosi Fifita, a fixture on the line, and Russell Allen, a multi-year starter in the linebacking corps.
The returning roster is immense. DE Jonathan Soto is backed up by sometime starter Eric Ikonne; LT Erine Lawson by sometime starter Jerome Long; B.J. Williams by sometime starter J.J. Autele. There is no more experienced two-deep in the conference, due to last year's plague of injury-prompted starts. This unit only can improve on its dismal 5.1 ypc and team total 13 sacks, despite new schemes.
Behind them returns lots of experience as well, also due to injuries. Andrew Preston's backup, Jerry Milling, started twice in 2008; Luke Laolagi's, Marcus Yarbrough, once. While the schemes are drastically different, but the defense was so bad last year that it can't be worse.

MWC secondaries

Opening The Wimple's next examination of TCU and its 2009 opponents in piecemeal seriatim, is this survey of secondaries-- ranked from best to worst.

True to form, TCU is replacing one monster safety with another this season: experienced Sir Demarco Bledsoe takes over all-MWC first teamer Stephen Hodge's role as safety, and has impressed in practice. Tekerrein Cuba replaces Steven Coleman (all-MWC 2nd team). The Horned Frogs return the nation's most experienced tandem at cornerback, all-MWC honorable mention Nick Sanders and all-MWC 2nd-teamer Rafael Priest. Together the seniors have started 78 games. Starting safety Tejay Johnson, rounding out the starting five. Look for JUCO transfer Malcolm Williams, and Alex Ibiloye too see significant playing time as well. Greg McCoy and Jason Teague backup Priest and Sanders at the corners. This unit likely will see meet or exceed last year's unit-- which was 11th best nationally in pass defense.

BYU replaces half of its starters in the secondary: Kellen Fowler and David Tafuna (honorable mention all-MWC). Brandon Howard may or may not return to start at FS; look for JUCO S Brian Logan to join returning starter Scott Johnson in the secondary. With them will be experienced Brandon Bradley and Andrew Rich. Look for improvement over last year's torchable-set, with considerable experience returning this season.

Wyoming loses a couple safeties, only one of them started most games last year, Quincy Rogers. The Cowboys return both starting cornerbacks: Marcell and Tashaun Gipson, and their all-conference honorable mention safety Chris Prosinski. Jamichael Hall, a JUCO transfer, redshirted last year and replaces Rogers this season. While lacking proven depth, the Cowboys have a strong starting secondary.

Utah loses a pair of first-team all-conference corners, Sean Smith and Brice McCain. Coach Whittingham saw this coming, and added a couple JUCO corners to the team last season; this year we'll find out how well Whittingham's preparation worked. Transfers Lamar Chapman and Damilyn Tanner compete for starts at corner with R.J. Stanford and Justin Jones. At safety, starters Robert Johnson and Joe Dale return. While the Utes likely will not see first-team all-conference performance at the corners again, it will field a good pass defense again.

Colorado State also loses two starting safeties-- also half of its starting secondary. Mike Pagnotta and Jake Galusha graduate, taking with them 37 career starts. However, SS Klint Kubiak is back for a sixth year, and CB DeAngelo Wilkinson returns from suspension to backup returning starter Nick Oppenneer. Gerard Thomas and Brandon Owens battle to return as starter at the other CB position. The only new starter in the secondary will be FS Elijah-Blu Smith or Jarrad McKay. This unit-- while not nation-leading in experience like the offensive line- ought to be improved over last year's unlucky four, and may even be a strength for the team.

UNLV loses cornerback Geoffery Howard and safety Lorenzo Bursey, and is hoping to remodel its dismal secondary. Headlining the new crew are early-enrolled JUCO transfer corners Warren Zeigler and Kenny Brown. They join returning starting safeties Quinton Pointer and Chris Jones this season, and new QB-turned safety Travis Dixon. Experienced returners Will Chandler and Beau Orth will see the field as well. Substantially improvement from this group may push the Rebels into the post-season for only the second time since Reagan was the president.

AIR FORCE replaces half of the best secondary it's fielded in recent memory, losing FS Aaron Kirchoff to graduation and CB Reggie Rembert to indefinite suspension (Calhoun called him the most explosive player on the team, which at the time was thought to be a comment on his on-field performance!). Also graduating is top backup safety Luke Yeager. AFA returns starters Anthony Wright (CB) and 2nd-team all-conference safety Chris Thomas. Replacing Rembert at CB is experienced Brenton Byrd. Inexperienced, but impressive this spring at FS was the youngster Jon Davis. While this year's squad doesn't look on paper like it'll match last year's effort, Air Force has consistently beat expectations under Calhoun. Look for some dropoff in the Academy's pass D, but don't be surprised if it's not very much.

New Mexico loses an all-star and all-conference pair of corners, Quin and Wright. Four players are battling to replace them: Anthony Hooks, Bubba Forrest, Frankie Baca, and Freddie Young. No word yet who've caught the coaches' eyes. Converted safety (from the Lobo position) Ian Clark looks to start at SS. Starting safety Frankie Solomon returns. While less experienced at the corners, this unit may not experience much dropoff; that said, last year's secondary performed on the low side of average; the Lobos need improvement here. Whether they'll get it remains an open question.

SDSU loses its star, FS Corey Boudreaux (all-MWC honorable mention), and also starters CB Vonnie Holmes and SS TJ McKay. The Aztecs brought in Rocky Long to recreate his signature stifling 5-man secondary, using the recast Lobo (now "Aztec") back. Nick Sandford and Martrell Fantroy battle for the position; Sandford started as a safety last year. At the corners, Aaron Moore returns on one side, while experienced Jose Perez and Davion Mauldin compete to start at the other. SDSU is building a high-risk, high-reward defense and surely will have to win the communication battle before anything else. The Wimple expects this unit to underperform this season while it irons out its new identity.

Phil Steele & the MWC

Phil Steele's annual preseason data-mine is out, and his take on the MWC is worth some discussion-- first, because it's not insight-free, like most of the other preseason mags', and also because it differs from The Wimple's in a few interesting ways.

First, the similarities: Steele calls the MWC the best non-BCS conference. Agreed. He also puts BYU, TCU, and Utah atop the conference, in that order. Agreed. Air Force and UNLV as likely bowlers? Absolutely. Jerry Hughes, Jeremy Kerley (PR), Priest-n-Sanders, Marshall Newhouse, Jimmy Young as first-team all-MWC players? Amen.

The differences? Let's start with teams. Steele puts Colorado State about where The Wimple guessed New Mexico would finish, and New Mexico about where The Wimple guessed Colorado State would finish: CSU 6th, UNM last. (The Wimple put the Lobos in the conference's middle tier, and CSU in its bottom tier.) Why the difference?

Steele doesn't trust the Lobos to handle the switch from a run-option offense to the spread, especially with only 9 starters returning. The personnel losses are most troubling on defense- where New Meixco must replace its entire D-line, and its best cornerbacks in recent history. If TCU's recent switch from an option-based offense to the spread is any indicator, the Lobos' D will have to save the offense from more than the usual amount of turnovers. But will New Mexico's increased reliance on a defense sporting a lot of new starters result in a trip to the conference bottom?

The Wimple just doesn't see the Lobos falling that far. Even if New Mexico performs at a lower level than last year, it gets CSU at home, and a roady to the conference's weakest link: Wyoming. At the very least, New Mexico will share last place with those two teams-- but my guess is the cherry and gray will be a step ahead of the MWC's '09 bottom feeders.

Phil Steele puts a lot of trust in Colorado State's nation-leading offensive line, which features more returning starts in 2009 than any other team. If this fact meant the Rams could count on a steady ground attack, one could happily agree with him. But it doesn't. That line was blocking for one of the nation's most underrated backs last season, and a whole lot of the credit for CSU's 4.2 yards per carry goes with Gartrell Johnson into the NFL. Coach Steve Fairchild was unhappy with his returning backs this spring, and absent a significant step-up in the backfield, Colorado State is in a significantly worse position than it was in 2008.

Has it a passing attack to rely on? There is more room for hope here. CSU returns a terrific receiving corps, but no heir apparent to last year's mildly productive QB, Billy Farris. Grant Stucker and Klay Kubiak return-- but that silence you hear out of Fort Collins is the excitement they don't create in the green and gold fanbase. JUCO Jon Eastman early enrolled for spring, and is either a dud, or has a lot of adjusting to D-1 speed to go. One doesn't expect a true freshman (Nico Ranieri is the lucky kid in this situation) to step under center at CSU and match last year's senior's numbers. So the watchwords for the hopeful in regard to Colorado State's passing attack is offseason development. Could happen; but safer bets are on a step backwards for the Rams this season.

Which, considering they snuck into a bowl game last year, puts them in the "Rebuilders" tier of the conference, where bragging rights in the Border War figure more prominently than developing a post-season winning streak. CSU is 12-4 recently versus Wyoming, and is at least as well positioned as Wyoming for a win in frigid north range November.

Who's missing from Phil's all-MWC lists? Steele, and everyone else who hasn't got Daryl Washington on their first-team list, is missing a blow-up year from the Horned Frog senior. Barring injury (and he's proven durable to date), Washington is going to pile up tackles and highlight reel moments from the get-go this season. Steele also pins high expectations on JUCO safety Malcolm Williams at TCU, putting him ahead of Teejay Johnson in his all-MWC list. That's silly. Williams will have to beat Bledsoe or Cuba even to start-- not a terribly likely outcome in Williams' first year as a Frog. Look for Johnson and Bledsoe to finish the season on the first team. Also likely to finish high: Zach Roth (OG), Antoine Hicks (WR), Marcus Cannon (OT), and Dalton (QB).

A statistician looks at the MWC

A football stats blogger called "LeftyLoon" has weighed in on the MWC. Using a stat called "SDPI", which he describes as a "look at how far above or below average (by standard deviations) a specific team is relative to their conference brethren," this blogger compared each MWC team's offensive output in yards. The stat correctly predicted the conference standings, except it put TCU ahead of Utah.

"How can this be? For starters, an eight game conference season is an extremely small sample size. If we replay the 2008 Mountain West season over a million times or so, Utah will probably win a rather high percentage of conference
titles. However, TCU will probably win more. . . . Secondly, for anyone with access to CBS College Sports, who actually watched the TCU/Utah battle that ultimately decided the conference title, you'd be hard-pressed to argue Utah was the better team. The Horned Frogs outgained the Utes by 141 yards and averaged more than a yard more per play. However, TCU kicker Ross Evans missed two makeable field goals of 26 and 35 yards (he would only miss two other field goals all season), Utah kicker Louie Sakoda made kicks of 49 and 39 yards, the Horned Frogs threw two interceptions, the Utes fell on both of their own fumbles, and it still took a touchdown pass with 48 seconds left to for the Utes to emerge victorious at home. Credit Utah, for you know, actually winning the game, which is why its usually played in the first place, but just remember they were extremely fortunate to do so."

That's a bold analysis-- and boldly wrong. I wasn't just watching the game on TV, but shlepped my then-east coast buns out to SLC, and by the time Utah finally managed to squeeze a touchdown out of the Frogs' winded D, I don't know how anyone could say one team was better than the other. The Utes' kicker clearly outclassed the Frogs' Evans, but aside from that disparity, the two teams looked very well matched to me.

"Looking ahead to next season, the prohibitive favorite should be...BYU. The number one offense in the conference last season returns a senior quarterback (Max Hall) and a 1000-yard rusher (Harvey Unga). The Cougars do lose their top receiver, Austin Collie, who split with a year of eligibility remaining, but returning tight end Dennis Pitta also had 1000 yards receiving last season. The main concern for the offense will be replacing four starters along the line. Even if the offense dips a little, it should remain one of the best in the conference."

Hard to argue there. I've already gone on record predicting BYU will win the conference; I love it when math backs me up. LeftyLoon is high on New Mexico and Wyoming. While agreeing that New Mexico looks like it's headed for a good year, I have to ask: how does one not look at Wyoming and weep for its prospects in '09?

"The Cowboys turnover margin in conference play last season was -22, easily good for last in the league. . . . There's a very good chance this turnover margin will improve significantly in 2009, . . . Fumble recovery is totally random, so the Cowboys should see their recovery perentage trend back toward 50% . . . . In 2008, Wyoming scored two non-offensive touchdowns. They were both interception returns and this feat is not entirley remarkable. However, opponents scored an amazing nine non-offensive touchdowns against the Cowboys (a punt return, two kickoff returns, four interception returns, and two fumble returns). . . . You can rest assured the Cowboys won't be seven touchdowns in the hole on non-offensive touchdowns in 2009."

This is lazy predicting. The 'Boys in Laramie are installing a 100% new offense, with players who just aren't cut out for it. Ask SMU, which is a year ahead of a nearly identical change of scheme: turnovers will plague Wyoming in its first Year of the Spread.

LeftyLoon doesn't like Utah's chances of repeating.

"The Utes were a very good team in 2008, but a great team they were not. Remember, they survived the worst Michigan team perhaps in history by two points, they scored a touchdown with under a minute to play to edge Air Force by seven, they needed a furious rally including a recovered onside kick to knock off Oregon State by three at home, and of course the aforementioned good fortune to get past TCU. As said before, Utah should be congratulated for winning all their games, but lady luck is a fickle mistress and she will probably not be as kind to the Utes in 2009. Add to that the loss of starting quarterback Brian Johnson and a trio of senior receivers and it certainly seems the offense will experience growing pains in 2009. The defense returns eight starters, but does lose perhaps its two best players in defensive end and quarterback nightmare Paul Kruger and corner Sean Smith. Both were second round picks in last year's draft and will be sorely missed. The Utes must also replace All-American kicker Louie Sakoda who made 22 of his 24 field goals last season."

By now, I'm wondering if LeftyLoon doesn't bleed Cougar-blue. The '08 Utes simply have to rank as an outstanding squad, especially when its chips were down. The blogger gets part of his "sell" prediction correct, though: the reason Utah won't match last season's highs in 2009 is personel. Too many very good players graduated.

LeftyLoon says says TCU and SDSU. We're well familiar with TCU here, but the blogger's take on SDSU is interesting.

"It took Hoke half a decade to even match the win total the team achieved the year before his arrival. . . I'm not here to pass judgement on Hoke's coaching acumen just yet, but San Diego State was clearly the worst team in the league last season. Expecting a coach who struggled to win in the MAC to come in and win immediately in a league with three very strong mid-major programs is an extreme leap of faith. San Diego State has some building blocks, such as . . . quarterback Ryan Lindley. . . If the program can double last season's win total, 2009 should be considered a success."

I'm tempted to say he's underselling the value of those Aztec building blocks, but it's probably prudent not to. Yet.

More from LeftyLoon in the next post.

Rating the MWC: the contenders

The Big Three will top the MWC, again.

BYU has to replace 4 starters on its offensive line; it will promote 4 experienced linemen, and early indications are that the faithful blue need not fear much dropoff in performance from the new starters. Max Hall, now experienced both in highs and lows and itching to run more, pilots the Cougars' attack again. The defense, newly humbled, appears focused on recovering its conference-dominating form. BYU loses one fantastic skill player-- Austin Collie-- but returns an enviable roster at QB, TE, WR, and all-MWC pass rusher Jan Jorgensen.
The Cougars get one of the conference's most enviable home games: Florida State climbs to Provo in September, and likely will return to Tallahassee with a newfound respect for resurging BYU and the MWC. BYU also hosts CSU, Utah State, TCU, Air Force, and Utah this year, and may beat all of them. TCU and Utah, as usual, will be the Cougars' toughest competition. On the road, BYU opens at Oklahoma (the "neutral site" you'll see on schedules and commentary is a snicker-worthy figleaf), and also travels to Tulane, UNLV, SDSU, Wyoming, and New Mexico. Besides OU, which BYU won't beat, the Cougars must watch out for trap games at UNLV and New Mexico. However, BYU can realistically hope for 11-1, and might feel disappointed again if it wrings only 10 wins from this schedule.

TCU learned to run the spread effectively in 2008, and appears poised to run the it most prolifically in '09. The Frogs' backfield, receiving corps, and offensive line are deep, experienced, and talented, giving Andy Dalton the weapons, room, and time to thrive in his third year at the helm. Look for the Frogs' O to dominate defenses all season.

The D will drop off only as much as Henry Nuitei and Jeremy Coleman don't develop at DT; look for the Frogs to hold the ball slightly less than last year's nation-leading figure (but score more), giving the D more time to show both its strengths and vulnerabilities. TCU travels to Virginia, Clemson, Air Force, BYU, SDSU, and Wyoming; taking sufficient intensity to win on the road has been a weakness for the Frogs. Unless corrected, look for TCU to drop 2 away from Fort Worth-- likely at BYU and Clemson. Coming to Fort Worth this year are Texas State, SMU, Colorado State, UNLV, Utah, and New Mexico. Likely only Utah stands a fighting chance to return home with a win.

The Frogs likely will win out at home, making for another 10-win season. If TCU ups its road focus, however, there's no juggernaut standing in the way of 12-0 in 2009; this season TCU goes as far towards undefeated as it wants to.

Utah has more talent to replace the starters it lost from its eye-popping '08 season than it had after its eye-popping '04 season. Probably this means the Utes finish slightly behind BYU and TCU, but the proof of this pudding will be in the tasting, and if there's anything we learned about Utah last season, it's never to bet against them! So: lesson learned. Utah is clearly a contender in every game this season, but its road trips to Oregon, Fort Worth, and Provo are dangerous for the less experienced team, which the Utes will be each time. The Utes also travel to San Jose State, CSU, and UNLV. If health luck has run in the Rebels' favor, and not also in the Utes', Utah may lose in Las Vegas, as well.

Utah State, Louisville, Air Force, Wyoming, New Mexico, and SDSU must play the Utes in Salt Lake City, and each of them will be the underdog (although watching Kragthorpe's power attack against Utah's new-ish defense will be a treat).

Look for Utah to reach 9 wins-- and do it three years faster than they did after their last BCS bowl. But any let-up from TCU or BYU, and the Utes may sneak into a tie for the conference championship.

Rating the MWC: the bowlers

Continuing our survey of the Mountain West, today's look is at the Bowlers.

Air Force's inclusion in this list is heavily contingent on the Asher Clark's health. The sophemore tailback was a key cog in last year's Coach-of-the-Year performance from Troy Calhoun's outrageously young Falcons. Clark broke his leg in spring drills, while filling in for eligibility-challenged Tim Jefferson (another key cog) at QB. The Falcons return starters primarily to their offensive line and secondary, but must replace the strong defensive line.

At home, AFA opens with cupcake Nicholls State, and also face SDSU, TCU, Wyoming, Army, and UNLV. How the Falcons hold up against the Horned Frogs and Rebels may define the tenor of the season for the Academy. AFA travels to Minnesota, New Mexico, Navy, Utah, Colorado State, and BYU-- all tough matches. If the whole crew returns (which is a large returning contingent, unlike last year), look for AFA to make waves out of conference, finally beating Navy, and maybe taking down Minnesota in Minneapolis as well. Air Force will be a dangerous roadgame for TCU and Utah as well. Running on all cylinders, the Falcons may reach 8 wins again.

New Mexico lost its coach in the strangest off-season move of the year: Rocky Long fled, at least publically on his own initiative, and wound up coaching the defense in San Diego (see below). The Lobos responded with the best coaching hire of the year, handing the reins to Mike Locksley, Illinois's OC. The new guy capped a complete turnover in staff, and inherited a talented team in Albuquerque that is used to winning. The '08 Lobos missed their first post-season as players last year. Their new offensive and defensive schemes are not the wholesale changes we'll see in Wyoming; but it's much faster-paced stuff, too, and the players have shown growing and transition pains, especially at O-line.

Donovan Porterie (pictured) hopes to quell the very competitive battle brewing at QB, and hope Terrence Brown will fill Rodney Ferguson's ample shoes at tailback. Their once-young O-line will be as much of a strength in '09 as they want to be; inexperience won't be an issue anymore.

New Mexico starts on the road at Texas A&M, whom the Lobos might just beat-- signaling good things for the conference and the Cherry-clad Albuquerqueans. (say that three times fast...) New Mexico also travels to Texas Tech, Wyoming, SDSU, Utah, and TCU. Taking three out of those five would be a new high for the Lobos. At home, UNM faces Tulsa, AFA, New Mexico State, UNLV, BYU, and CSU. New Mexico expects .500 at home, but may best that mark if Tulsa can't reload at QB like they have in the past, or if AFA or BYU slip up. New Mexico's defense may have a heyday against the new quarterbacks they'll face: A&M, Tech, Tulsa, NMState, Utah, and CSU are all breaking in new starters under center. If the Lobos have their act together from the get-go, they may carry the MWC's banner out of conference, and have a say in who takes the big trophy in it.

UNLV is finally ready to cap its rise from utter obscurity with a return to the post season. Mike Sanford's crew now almost numbers 85 on scholarship; they return one of the conference's best and toughest QBs (Omar Clayton is the guy who played through a broken chin in last year's overtime upset at Arizona State), a bevy of terrific wideouts, and good lines. The Rebels gambled on JUCO transfers to help plug their porous secondary, and they appear to have won the bet with Warren Ziegler, and also returners Travis Dixon, Terrence Lee, and Chris Jones. The only gaping hole is at runningback-- when Frank "the Tank" Summers went down against San Diego State last season, the cost was a bowl invitation. The committee of runners who'll try and fill Summers' shoes will work behind a good line and in tandem with a good passing game; if they can't succeed, it'll be their own fault.

UNLV starts the season with three home games: Sacramento State, Oregon State, and Hawaii. Considering Hawaii's drop in performance when away from the enchanted isles, look for the Rebs to take 2 of these 3. Upsetting Oregon State might match the improbability of UNLV's toppling Arizona State last season. The Rebels also face BYU, Utah, CSU, and SDSU at home. Winning three of those four would mean the Rebels have improved more than expected. UNLV travels to Wyoming, Nevada, New Mexico, TCU, and Air Force. Only Wyoming is a probable win for Rebs-- their first conference road win in years. Air Force, if at all weakened by the long season, may prove a second road win.

Bowl eligibity is one upset away for the Rebs this season. The moral of the story: don't fire a coach whose ship is pointed in the right direction just because it ain't sailing as fast as you'd like. (ah hem, SDSU!)

Rating the MWC post-spring: the rebuilders

The whistles go silent; the pads are shelved; the off-season enters its interminable summer dawdle... What's the conference pecking order look like? As usual, the Mountain West looks like layered cake, with these layers: the contenders, the bowlers, and the rebuilders. In these next few posts, the Wimple will cast an eye on each layer of the cake.

Today: the rebuilders.

Colorado State, Wyoming, and San Diego State share the dubious honor of low expectations, but for totally different reasons.

The Cowboys used power running to lose consistently last year-- and lost their backfield to the graduation of Devin Moore and Wynel Selden. With them went the coach, and in their place blew in Joe Christensen, the spread-guru from Missouri. Despite the incessently optimistic spring chatter out of Laramie, there is exactly a 100% chance the Cowboys are going to spend a season in the wilderness, learning this newfangled high-tempo pass-happy offense. Wyoming is filled with power running players, and even though Karten Sween (pictured) ran a spread in high school, he's going to work behind a subpar o-line, with receivers who, let's face it, signed with a power running school.

The Cowboys might beat Weber State in Laramie, but after that the home slate is Texas (huh?), UNLV, New Mexico, BYU, and TCU. While it's true UNLV hasn't won a conference roadie in... forever, look for Wyoming to end that streak. New Mexico, BYU, and TCU look much stronger than the 'Boys, even on the road. On the road, Wyoming faces Colorado, Florida Atlantic, Air Force, Utah, San Diego State, and Colorado State. Maybe the boys in brown 'n yellow will find a way to stifle Florida Atlantic, SDSU, or Colorado State, but the Wimple thinks chances are slim. FAU returns one of the nation's most prolific quarterbacks in '09; SDSU brings back nearly nothing but experience, and Colorado State, for all its troubles (see below), has a strong offensive line that may keep Wyoming's new spread off the field. Air Force and Utah will make quick work of the Cowboys. Anything better than 2-10 will be a remarkably quick turnaround by what will have become the hottest coach in the country.

The good news: Christensen signed a pretty good recruiting class, and has the Cowboys working tougher than they were working under Joe Glenn. We won't look for fruit in this quest for respectibility until at least 2010. Any buds before then will be welcome surprises.

Colorado State, on the other hand, is not changing schemes from night to day this offseason; it's changing personel night to day. Steve Fairchild rode a terrific group of senior skill players to a surprising bowl bid to in Albuquerque last season, and an equally surprising upset over Fresno State, where Gartrell Johnson set the all-time bowl rushing record. And then graduated. With him strolled out of eligibility the Rams' two QBs, a terrific LB, and the best CSU TE of the decade, Kory Sperry. Add a year's suspension for the Rams' other great LB, another QB quitting, and suddenly the skill position cupboard in Fort Collins looks terribly bare. The spring chatter has been more honest than the coverage of the Rams' rival, featuring sinking expectations.

The Rams share Weber State and a trip to Colorado OOC with Wyoming, and likely will beat only Weber State, as well. At home, CSU also sees Nevada, Utah, SDSU, Air Force, and Wyoming. The Wimple sees the Rams beating Wyoming, and if Steve Fairchild can find a quarterback and runningback between now and September, maybe CSU bests SDSU as well. After what will be a humiliating trip to Boulder, CSU travels to BYU, Idaho, TCU, UNLV, and New Mexico. The Rams may not even score points except against hapless Idaho, whom CSU may beat. If CSU can squeeze four wins out of this schedule, it will have gotten a jump-start on what may be a solid '10 team.

The good news: CSU returns 4 starters up front, including light-out tackle Shelley Smith (pictured). These big guys will give the new backfield room and holes to work with much of the time. But don't expect the Rams to muscle their way back into bowl eligibility this season.

San Diego State hasn't been good in... in forever. Despite a season-killing plethora of injuries last year, it looked like the Aztecs might be headed for a different layer of the MWC cake, for a change. But then it fired Chuck Long, who had turned the team's trajectory back towards winning, and brought in Brady Hoke (pictured). Although the Wimple thinks firing Long was a bad idea, it can hardly be argued that hiring Hoke was equally as bad. The midwesterner promptly hired two great coordinators, and has begun installing a faster tempo offense, and completely different defense.

So, what do the Aztecs have to look forward to in 2009? They return the longest list of returning starters in the conference. Many of those starters were fill-ins for the terribly injury-plagued Aztecs last year. If Hoke & Co. can skirt the injury bug this season, they may command one of the conference's most surprising offenses; the defense is learning an entirely new scheme-- Rocky Long's high-risk high-reward 3-3-5, with the "Lobo" back recast as the "Aztec." Which means exactly what, you ask? Probably more of the same in San Diego, for another interminable year.

There is reason for (highly guarded) hopes, however: SDSU's OOC slate could be shockingly soft: @Ucla, Southern Utah, @Idaho, and New Mexico State. BYU, New Mexico, TCU, and Wyoming also come to San Diego; the Wimple expects the Aztecs to beat only Wyoming at home in conference. SDSU travels to UCLA, Idaho, Air Force, Colorado State, Utah, and UNLV. .500 on the road may happen, and suddenly the Aztecs may be one upset away from a bowl. Or, in its accustomed drill, SDSU may choke on Hoke's new scheme, and join the hapless Rams and Cowboys at the conference bottom. The Wimple sees little clue which way their chips will fall this season.

San Diego State- post-spring

It's not back to square one with the new coaching staff in San Diego, but Brady Hoke has set a more athletic starting point for his players, and the team is scrambling to catch up. Brady Hoke is pushing the Aztecs to practice at game speed.

Nick Sandford and Martrell Fantroy are battling to be the starting "Aztec" back-- the hybrid safety/linebacker that Brian Urlacher made famous under Rockly Long's tutelege at New Mexico. Long is SDSU's new DC. Long's 3-3-5 is linebacker friendly, and senior LB Luke Laolagi and junior Andrew Preston are returning starters.

The Aztecs installed over 85 percent of the schemes in the spring, and pushed the offense around mercilessly, doing so. Tommie Draheim is pushing Trask Iosefa at center; Jonathan Soto and B.J. Williams return as DEs; several others are competing for NT and end. Among the many Aztecs who missed most of '08 with injuries is junior RB Davon Brown, who joins returners Attiyah Henderson and Brandon Sullivan, and newcomers Anthony Miller and Ronnie Hillman in competition to liven SDSU's running game in '09. That said, neither Brown, Henderson, or Sullivan has nailed down the starting spot. Brown impressed in the team's first scrimmage, (and second, too) as did junior TE Alston Umuolo. Senior WR Roberto Wallace impressed in the second scrimmage, in which 15 players recorded tackles for losses.

In the Aztecs' spring game, seniors DeMarco Sampson and Jon Toledo looked as good as junior all-MWC receiver Vincent Brown; the winners ate steak afterwards, the losers: hotdogs ($). Ryan Lindley finished 18-of-37 for 235 yards and a touchdown, directing the Black squad to victory and the steak dinner. Neither team's ground game impressed.

SMU - post spring

The Ponies are into their second year, and into their third million dollars, of The Revival-- or at least they hope so. To that end, it looks like the offense is functioning better than it was a year ago; (all the stories are in this link except those linked to below). The outlook for their awful defense isn't so rosy: the Mustangs are trying on an Estonian world-champ discus thrower at DE for size, and may move their best wide-out (Emmanual Sanders) to cornerback. Justin Willis, now a WR, broke an ankle and will be out at least until fall. Bo Levi Mitchell says his head isn't swimming with trying to learn the plays, like it was last year. The defense, especially the secondary, looks better some of the time, and worse others.

In the spring game, the defense looked much sharper than it has in years, especially in the secondary. June Jones was most pleased with the number of interceptions thrown-- zero-- and says if his QBs throw few interceptions, they'll win a lot of games. Bradley Haynes may be BLM's go-to receiver in '10.