MWC defensive front 7s

Turning now to the lineman and linebackers of the Mountain West's defenses: the differences in ranking these units seem much smaller than the width between ranks among the MWC's secondaries. Utah returns the best known quantities in its front seven, with BYU only slightly behind them. Wyoming, UNLV, and TCU basically tie for third, with Air Force in fourth, mainly because there are just too many new starters playing in these teams' defensive fronts to confidently stack them differently. New Mexico, Colorado State, and San Diego State either will start skads of new players, or put returners in a new scheme-- or in New Mexico's case, both. These teams' defensive fronts are essentially unpredictable, and thus fall to the bottom by default.
Talent-wise, the usually suspects would rank first through third, perhaps with a surprising challenge from UNLV. But this ranking tries to give experience equal weight. It'll be interesting to compare notes in December.

Despite losing DE Paul Kruger and DT Greg Newman, Utah returns a wealth of experience on the line. Whittingham boosted the ranks a couple years ago with some JUCO linemen, and this year they begin starting, bringing with them a lot of experience. 2nd team all-conference DE Koa Misi returns for his third year as a starter. DT Dealver Siliga replaces Newman, and is experienced. The other interior lineman, Kenape Eliapo, has started in two previous seasons. Battling to replace Kruger are JUCO transfer James Aiono and very experienced Derrick Shelby. This group may meet last year's outstanding performance.
At linebacker, the Utes return all of their starters. Fotu, Sylvester, and Wright will be a superior unit.

BYU loses a terrific linebacker to graduation, Nixon, and two very good linemen to LDS missions, Russell Tialavea and Bernard Afutiti. However, the Cougars return starting ends Jan Jorgensen and Brett Denney, and backup Tevita Hola, a JUCO transfer who redshirted last year. The new personnel bring just enough questions with them to miss out on first place expectations in the conference. There are no such questions at linebacker. Jordan Pendleton, Matt Bauman, Shaun Doman, Matt Ah You, Coleby Clawson, and Vic So'oto all vie for starts. Look for this year's BYU defense to quiet last year's critics.

Wyoming loses one very good linebacker, Ward Dobbs, and a few backup linemen on defense. It returns its entire starting d-line, as seniors: Mitch Unrein, Fred Givens, and John Fletcher. As juniors, they held opponents to 3.7 ypc; expect improvement with their higher intensity workouts and coaching, making them one of the conference's best lines.
At linebacker, the Cowboys are more experienced than talented. Starters Gabe Knapton and Weston Johnson return, and experienced Brian Hendricks will replace Dobbs. While the Cowboys won't see much dropoff in this unit, they'll need to get improvement to make inroads on the conference's rushing attacks.

UNLV loses several backups on the line, and returns one of the conference's best starting four: DE Isaako Aaitui, DT Martin Tevaseu, DT Malo Taumua, and JUCO transfer B.J. Bell. Taumua's backup, Lale Taiese, was the scout team's PoY. Expect considerable improvement from last year's 5 ypc and 11 team sacks. All of the team's starters at linebacker return: Beauchamp, Paulo, and Fuimaono. Several backups saw starts last year. Together these two groups make perhaps the conference's most experienced defensive front seven. Expect all-star performance, especially because the group works behind an improved line.

TCU loses two highly under-decorated defensive tackles, in 2nd-team all-conference Cody Moore and honorable mention all-conference James Vess. DE Matt Panfil graduated as well, taking 2nd team all-conference honors with him. It'll be up to junior DTs Kelly Griffin and Cory Grant to take the heat off of returning all-world DE Jerry Hughes. Wayne Daniels will work in tandem with Hughes at right end. How this line's backups grow to compete for starts will be a good measure for the Frogs' season: Henry Nuitei, Jeremy Coleman, Clarence Leatch, and Braylon Broughton will make or break TCU's bid for the conference title.
At linebacker, the Frogs sent their second and third LBs to the NFL over two years: Jason Phillips and Robert Henson, each taking 1st team all-conference honors. Next in the Frogs' pipeline to the pros is Daryl Washington, who likely will have a monstrous year. New starter Tank Carder may be the Frogs' best kept secret. Look for no dropoff, and the emergence of another star Frog linebacker.
If the new starting linemen and linebacker play to the level of their talent, this group will finish the season ranked much higher than fifth in conference. Preseason, however, there are simply too many unknowns in the two-deep to warrant a more hopeful ranking.

Air Force loses two fantastic ends, Jake Paulson and Ryan Kemp, and two very good linebackers, Hunter Altman and Brandon Reeves. Guard Ben Garland returns to start for a third year on the line, joined by experienced DE Myles Morales and Rick Ricketts, who has impressed this spring. This unit won't be the anchor it was for the Falcons in 2008, but if Calhoun's player developing magic continues, it won't be a liability, either.
At linebacker, the Falcons return two starters, Ken Lamendola and Andre Morris. Justin Moore and Patrick Hennessey bring considerable experience to their new starting roles. This group has more experience than the '08 corps, and probably will not show much dropoff.

New Mexico loses a wealth of starters in front. Kevin Balogun, Wesley Beck, and Jeremiah Lovato each started for multiple years in Albuquerque. LBs Herbert Felder and Zach Arnett also were multi-year starters. The Lobos' rebuilt line will depend highly on early-enrolled JUCO transfer DT Peter Gardner, who impressed in the spring. New starters Jaymar Latchison and experienced Kendal Briscoe, and DeAndre Davis, a JUCO transfer who redshirted last year fill out the front four. These big guys have experience individually, but none as a group. How they'll perform together is an open question.
Behind them, the linebackers are only slightly more experienced. Joe Harris redshirted last season. Carmen Messina had one start in 2008; Terel Anyaibe had two. Clint McPeek is a third year starter, converting from the "Lobo" back to conventional linebacker. Add the new schemes for this defense, and nobody can tell what kind of performance to expect from the Lobo defense this season.

Colorado State has taken bad losses in its defensive front. DE Wade Landers, NG Matt Rupp, DE Tommie Hill, MLB Jeff Horinek all graduate. WLB Ricky Brewer got himself suspended. The Rams' line is in the hands of Cory Macon, Guy Miller, and James Morehead, with backups Ty Whittier and Sam Stewart. This group is experienced, but has only a few starts between them. CSU didn't have a head-knocking group up front last year, but if this line gels, it could greatly outperform expectations.
At linebacker, Mychal Sisson, Luke Diehl, and Chris Gipson start. Losing Brewer to suspension hurt this inexperienced group.

San Diego State also implements highly new schemes, but does so with experienced players almost without exception. The Aztecs lose Siaosi Fifita, a fixture on the line, and Russell Allen, a multi-year starter in the linebacking corps.
The returning roster is immense. DE Jonathan Soto is backed up by sometime starter Eric Ikonne; LT Erine Lawson by sometime starter Jerome Long; B.J. Williams by sometime starter J.J. Autele. There is no more experienced two-deep in the conference, due to last year's plague of injury-prompted starts. This unit only can improve on its dismal 5.1 ypc and team total 13 sacks, despite new schemes.
Behind them returns lots of experience as well, also due to injuries. Andrew Preston's backup, Jerry Milling, started twice in 2008; Luke Laolagi's, Marcus Yarbrough, once. While the schemes are drastically different, but the defense was so bad last year that it can't be worse.

MWC secondaries

Opening The Wimple's next examination of TCU and its 2009 opponents in piecemeal seriatim, is this survey of secondaries-- ranked from best to worst.

True to form, TCU is replacing one monster safety with another this season: experienced Sir Demarco Bledsoe takes over all-MWC first teamer Stephen Hodge's role as safety, and has impressed in practice. Tekerrein Cuba replaces Steven Coleman (all-MWC 2nd team). The Horned Frogs return the nation's most experienced tandem at cornerback, all-MWC honorable mention Nick Sanders and all-MWC 2nd-teamer Rafael Priest. Together the seniors have started 78 games. Starting safety Tejay Johnson, rounding out the starting five. Look for JUCO transfer Malcolm Williams, and Alex Ibiloye too see significant playing time as well. Greg McCoy and Jason Teague backup Priest and Sanders at the corners. This unit likely will see meet or exceed last year's unit-- which was 11th best nationally in pass defense.

BYU replaces half of its starters in the secondary: Kellen Fowler and David Tafuna (honorable mention all-MWC). Brandon Howard may or may not return to start at FS; look for JUCO S Brian Logan to join returning starter Scott Johnson in the secondary. With them will be experienced Brandon Bradley and Andrew Rich. Look for improvement over last year's torchable-set, with considerable experience returning this season.

Wyoming loses a couple safeties, only one of them started most games last year, Quincy Rogers. The Cowboys return both starting cornerbacks: Marcell and Tashaun Gipson, and their all-conference honorable mention safety Chris Prosinski. Jamichael Hall, a JUCO transfer, redshirted last year and replaces Rogers this season. While lacking proven depth, the Cowboys have a strong starting secondary.

Utah loses a pair of first-team all-conference corners, Sean Smith and Brice McCain. Coach Whittingham saw this coming, and added a couple JUCO corners to the team last season; this year we'll find out how well Whittingham's preparation worked. Transfers Lamar Chapman and Damilyn Tanner compete for starts at corner with R.J. Stanford and Justin Jones. At safety, starters Robert Johnson and Joe Dale return. While the Utes likely will not see first-team all-conference performance at the corners again, it will field a good pass defense again.

Colorado State also loses two starting safeties-- also half of its starting secondary. Mike Pagnotta and Jake Galusha graduate, taking with them 37 career starts. However, SS Klint Kubiak is back for a sixth year, and CB DeAngelo Wilkinson returns from suspension to backup returning starter Nick Oppenneer. Gerard Thomas and Brandon Owens battle to return as starter at the other CB position. The only new starter in the secondary will be FS Elijah-Blu Smith or Jarrad McKay. This unit-- while not nation-leading in experience like the offensive line- ought to be improved over last year's unlucky four, and may even be a strength for the team.

UNLV loses cornerback Geoffery Howard and safety Lorenzo Bursey, and is hoping to remodel its dismal secondary. Headlining the new crew are early-enrolled JUCO transfer corners Warren Zeigler and Kenny Brown. They join returning starting safeties Quinton Pointer and Chris Jones this season, and new QB-turned safety Travis Dixon. Experienced returners Will Chandler and Beau Orth will see the field as well. Substantially improvement from this group may push the Rebels into the post-season for only the second time since Reagan was the president.

AIR FORCE replaces half of the best secondary it's fielded in recent memory, losing FS Aaron Kirchoff to graduation and CB Reggie Rembert to indefinite suspension (Calhoun called him the most explosive player on the team, which at the time was thought to be a comment on his on-field performance!). Also graduating is top backup safety Luke Yeager. AFA returns starters Anthony Wright (CB) and 2nd-team all-conference safety Chris Thomas. Replacing Rembert at CB is experienced Brenton Byrd. Inexperienced, but impressive this spring at FS was the youngster Jon Davis. While this year's squad doesn't look on paper like it'll match last year's effort, Air Force has consistently beat expectations under Calhoun. Look for some dropoff in the Academy's pass D, but don't be surprised if it's not very much.

New Mexico loses an all-star and all-conference pair of corners, Quin and Wright. Four players are battling to replace them: Anthony Hooks, Bubba Forrest, Frankie Baca, and Freddie Young. No word yet who've caught the coaches' eyes. Converted safety (from the Lobo position) Ian Clark looks to start at SS. Starting safety Frankie Solomon returns. While less experienced at the corners, this unit may not experience much dropoff; that said, last year's secondary performed on the low side of average; the Lobos need improvement here. Whether they'll get it remains an open question.

SDSU loses its star, FS Corey Boudreaux (all-MWC honorable mention), and also starters CB Vonnie Holmes and SS TJ McKay. The Aztecs brought in Rocky Long to recreate his signature stifling 5-man secondary, using the recast Lobo (now "Aztec") back. Nick Sandford and Martrell Fantroy battle for the position; Sandford started as a safety last year. At the corners, Aaron Moore returns on one side, while experienced Jose Perez and Davion Mauldin compete to start at the other. SDSU is building a high-risk, high-reward defense and surely will have to win the communication battle before anything else. The Wimple expects this unit to underperform this season while it irons out its new identity.

Phil Steele & the MWC

Phil Steele's annual preseason data-mine is out, and his take on the MWC is worth some discussion-- first, because it's not insight-free, like most of the other preseason mags', and also because it differs from The Wimple's in a few interesting ways.

First, the similarities: Steele calls the MWC the best non-BCS conference. Agreed. He also puts BYU, TCU, and Utah atop the conference, in that order. Agreed. Air Force and UNLV as likely bowlers? Absolutely. Jerry Hughes, Jeremy Kerley (PR), Priest-n-Sanders, Marshall Newhouse, Jimmy Young as first-team all-MWC players? Amen.

The differences? Let's start with teams. Steele puts Colorado State about where The Wimple guessed New Mexico would finish, and New Mexico about where The Wimple guessed Colorado State would finish: CSU 6th, UNM last. (The Wimple put the Lobos in the conference's middle tier, and CSU in its bottom tier.) Why the difference?

Steele doesn't trust the Lobos to handle the switch from a run-option offense to the spread, especially with only 9 starters returning. The personnel losses are most troubling on defense- where New Meixco must replace its entire D-line, and its best cornerbacks in recent history. If TCU's recent switch from an option-based offense to the spread is any indicator, the Lobos' D will have to save the offense from more than the usual amount of turnovers. But will New Mexico's increased reliance on a defense sporting a lot of new starters result in a trip to the conference bottom?

The Wimple just doesn't see the Lobos falling that far. Even if New Mexico performs at a lower level than last year, it gets CSU at home, and a roady to the conference's weakest link: Wyoming. At the very least, New Mexico will share last place with those two teams-- but my guess is the cherry and gray will be a step ahead of the MWC's '09 bottom feeders.

Phil Steele puts a lot of trust in Colorado State's nation-leading offensive line, which features more returning starts in 2009 than any other team. If this fact meant the Rams could count on a steady ground attack, one could happily agree with him. But it doesn't. That line was blocking for one of the nation's most underrated backs last season, and a whole lot of the credit for CSU's 4.2 yards per carry goes with Gartrell Johnson into the NFL. Coach Steve Fairchild was unhappy with his returning backs this spring, and absent a significant step-up in the backfield, Colorado State is in a significantly worse position than it was in 2008.

Has it a passing attack to rely on? There is more room for hope here. CSU returns a terrific receiving corps, but no heir apparent to last year's mildly productive QB, Billy Farris. Grant Stucker and Klay Kubiak return-- but that silence you hear out of Fort Collins is the excitement they don't create in the green and gold fanbase. JUCO Jon Eastman early enrolled for spring, and is either a dud, or has a lot of adjusting to D-1 speed to go. One doesn't expect a true freshman (Nico Ranieri is the lucky kid in this situation) to step under center at CSU and match last year's senior's numbers. So the watchwords for the hopeful in regard to Colorado State's passing attack is offseason development. Could happen; but safer bets are on a step backwards for the Rams this season.

Which, considering they snuck into a bowl game last year, puts them in the "Rebuilders" tier of the conference, where bragging rights in the Border War figure more prominently than developing a post-season winning streak. CSU is 12-4 recently versus Wyoming, and is at least as well positioned as Wyoming for a win in frigid north range November.

Who's missing from Phil's all-MWC lists? Steele, and everyone else who hasn't got Daryl Washington on their first-team list, is missing a blow-up year from the Horned Frog senior. Barring injury (and he's proven durable to date), Washington is going to pile up tackles and highlight reel moments from the get-go this season. Steele also pins high expectations on JUCO safety Malcolm Williams at TCU, putting him ahead of Teejay Johnson in his all-MWC list. That's silly. Williams will have to beat Bledsoe or Cuba even to start-- not a terribly likely outcome in Williams' first year as a Frog. Look for Johnson and Bledsoe to finish the season on the first team. Also likely to finish high: Zach Roth (OG), Antoine Hicks (WR), Marcus Cannon (OT), and Dalton (QB).